Matching Items (50)
Description
Current policies subsidizing or accelerating deployment of photovoltaics (PV) are typically motivated by claims of environmental benefit, such as the reduction of CO2 emissions generated by the fossil-fuel fired power plants that PV is intended to displace. Existing practice is to assess these environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where CO2 benefits occurring during use of the PV panels is found to exceed emissions generated during the PV manufacturing phase including materials extraction and manufacture of the PV panels prior to installation. However, this approach neglects to recognize that the environmental costs of CO2 release during manufacture are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where specific policy targets suggest meeting CO2 reduction targets established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counter-intuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. Thus, on a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood. This phenomenon is particularly acute when PV manufacture occurs in areas using CO2 intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less CO2 intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydro). This thesis builds a dynamic Cumulative Radiative Forcing (CRF) model to examine the inter-temporal warming impacts of PV deployments in three locations: California, Wyoming and Arizona. The model includes the following factors that impact CRF: PV deployment rate, choice of PV technology, pace of PV technology improvements, and CO2 intensity in the electricity mix at manufacturing and deployment locations. Wyoming and California show the highest and lowest CRF benefits as they have the most and least CO2 intensive grids, respectively. CRF payback times are longer than CO2 payback times in all cases. Thin film, CdTe PV technologies have the lowest manufacturing CO2 emissions and therefore the shortest CRF payback times. This model can inform policies intended to fulfill time-sensitive CO2 mitigation goals while minimizing short term radiative forcing.
ContributorsTriplican Ravikumar, Dwarakanath (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew P (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Sinha, Parikhit (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Contrary to many previous travel demand forecasts there is increasing evidence that vehicle travel in developed countries may be peaking. The underlying causes of this peaking are still under much debate and there has been a mobilization of research, largely focused at the national scale, to study the explanatory drivers but research focused at the metropolitan scale, where transportation policy and planning are frequently decided, is relatively thin. Additionally, a majority of this research has focused on changes within the activity system without considering the impact transportation infrastructure has on overall travel demand. Using Los Angeles County California, we investigate Peak Car and whether the saturation of automobile infrastructure, in addition to societal and economic factors, may be a suppressing factor. After peaking in 2002, vehicle travel in Los Angeles County in 2010 was estimated at 78 billion and was 20.3 billion shy of projections made in 2002. The extent to which infrastructure saturation may contribute to Peak Car is evaluated by analyzing social and economic factors that may have impacted personal automobile usage over the last decade. This includes changing fuel prices, fuel economy, population growth, increased utilization of alternate transportation modes, changes in driver demographics , travel time and income levels. Summation of all assessed factors reveals there is at least some portion of the 20 billion VMT that is unexplained in all but the worst case scenario. We hypothesize that the unexplained remaining VMT may be explained by infrastructure supply constraints that result in suppression of travel. This finding has impacts on how we see the role of hard infrastructure systems in urban growth and we explore these impacts in the research.
ContributorsFraser, Andrew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram M. (Committee member) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The environmental and economic assessment of neighborhood-scale transit-oriented urban form changes should include initial construction impacts through long-term use to fully understand the benefits and costs of smart growth policies. The long-term impacts of moving people closer to transit require the coupling of behavioral forecasting with environmental assessment. Using new light rail and bus rapid transit in Los Angeles, California as a case study, a life-cycle environmental and economic assessment is developed to assess the potential range of impacts resulting from mixed-use infill development. An integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment framework is developed to estimate energy consumption, air emissions, and economic (public, developer, and user) costs. Residential and commercial buildings, automobile travel, and transit operation changes are included and a 60-year forecast is developed that compares transit-oriented growth against growth in areas without close access to high-capacity transit service. The results show that commercial developments create the greatest potential for impact reductions followed by residential commute shifts to transit, both of which may be effected by access to high-capacity transit, reduced parking requirements, and developer incentives. Greenhouse gas emission reductions up to 470 Gg CO2-equivalents per year can be achieved with potential costs savings for TOD users. The potential for respiratory impacts (PM10-equivalents) and smog formation can be reduced by 28-35%. The shift from business-as-usual growth to transit-oriented development can decrease user costs by $3,100 per household per year over the building lifetime, despite higher rental costs within the mixed-use development.
ContributorsNahlik, Matthew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
It has been identified in the literature that there exists a link between the built environment and non-motorized transport. This study aims to contribute to existing literature on the effects of the built environment on cycling, examining the case of the whole State of California. Physical built environment features are classified into six groups as: 1) local density, 2) diversity of land use, 3) road connectivity, 4) bike route length, 5) green space, 6) job accessibility. Cycling trips in one week for all children, school children, adults and employed-adults are investigated separately. The regression analysis shows that cycling trips is significantly associated with some features of built environment when many socio-demographic factors are taken into account. Street intersections, bike route length tend to increase the use of bicycle. These effects are well-aligned with literature. Moreover, both local and regional job accessibility variables are statistically significant in two adults' models. However, residential density always has a significant negatively effect on cycling trips, which is still need further research to confirm. Also, there is a gap in literature on how green space affects cycling, but the results of this study is still too unclear to make it up. By elasticity analysis, this study concludes that street intersections is the most powerful predictor on cycling trips. From another perspective, the effects of built environment on cycling at workplace (or school) are distinguished from at home. This study implies that a wide range of measures are available for planners to control vehicle travel by improving cycling-level in California.
ContributorsWang, Kailai, M.U.E.P (Author) / Salon, Deborah (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Li, Wenwen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluates the relative performance of multiple products, services, or technologies with the purpose of selecting the least impactful alternative. Nevertheless, characterized results are seldom conclusive. When one alternative performs best in some aspects, it may also performs worse in others. These tradeoffs among different impact categories make it difficult to identify environmentally preferable alternatives. To help reconcile this dilemma, LCA analysts have the option to apply normalization and weighting to generate comparisons based upon a single score. However, these approaches can be misleading because they suffer from problems of reference dataset incompletion, linear and fully compensatory aggregation, masking of salient tradeoffs, weight insensitivity and difficulties incorporating uncertainty in performance assessment and weights. Consequently, most LCA studies truncate impacts assessment at characterization, which leaves decision-makers to confront highly uncertain multi-criteria problems without the aid of analytic guideposts. This study introduces Stochastic Multi attribute Analysis (SMAA), a novel approach to normalization and weighting of characterized life-cycle inventory data for use in comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The proposed method avoids the bias introduced by external normalization references, and is capable of exploring high uncertainty in both the input parameters and weights.
ContributorsPrado, Valentina (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Kullapa Soratana (Committee member) / Tervonen, Tommi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Informal public transport is commonplace in the developing world, but the service exists in the United States as well, and is understudied. Often called "dollar vans", New York's commuter vans serve approximately 120,000 people every day (King and Goldwyn, 2014). While this is a tiny fraction of the New York transit rider population, it is comparable to the total number of commuters who ride transit in smaller cities such as Minneapolis/St Paul and Phoenix. The first part of this study reports on the use of commuter vans in Eastern Queens based on a combination of surveys and a ridership tally, all conducted in summer 2016. It answers four research questions: How many people ride the vans? Who rides the commuter vans? Why do they ride commuter vans? Do commuter vans complement or compete against formal transit? Commuter van ridership in Eastern Queens was approximately 55,000 with a high percentage of female ridership. Time and cost savings were the main factors influencing commuter van ridership. Possession of a MetroCard was shown to negatively affect the frequency of commuter van ridership. The results show evidence of commuter vans playing both a competing and complementary role to MTA bus and subway transit. The second part of this study presents a SWOT analysis results of commuter vans, and the policy implications. It answers 2 research questions: What are the main strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of commuter vans in Eastern Queens? and How do the current policies, rules and regulations affect commuter van operation? The SWOT analysis results show that the commuter van industry is resilient, performs a necessary service, and, with small adjustments that will help reduce operating costs and loss of profits have a chance of thriving in Eastern Queens and the rest of New York City. The study also discusses the mismatch between policy and practice offering recommendations for improvement to ensure that commuter vans continue to serve residents of New York City.
ContributorsMusili, Catherine (Author) / Salon, Deborah (Thesis advisor) / King, David (Committee member) / Kelley, Jason (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Bicycle sharing systems (BSS) operate on five continents, and they change quickly with technological innovations. The newest “dockless” systems eliminate both docks and stations, and have become popular in China since their launch in 2016. The rapid increase in dockless system use has exposed its drawbacks. Without the order imposed by docks and stations, bike parking has become problematic. In the areas of densest use, the central business districts of large cities, dockless systems have resulted in chaotic piling of bikes and need for frequent rebalancing of bikes to other locations. In low-density zones, on the other hand, it may be difficult for customers to find a bike, and bikes may go unused for long periods. Using big data from the Mobike BSS in Beijing, I analyzed the relationship between building density and the efficiency of dockless BSS. Density is negatively correlated with bicycle idle time, and positively correlated with rebalancing. Understanding the effects of density on BSS efficiency can help BSS operators and municipalities improve the operating efficiency of BSS, increase regional cycling volume, and solve the bicycle rebalancing problem in dockless systems. It can also be useful to cities considering what kind of BSS to adopt.
ContributorsCui, Wencong (Author) / Kuby, Michael (Thesis advisor) / Salon, Deborah (Committee member) / Thigpen, Calvin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Defines the concept of the arcology as conceived by architect Paolo Soleri. Arcology combines "architecture" and "ecology" and explores a visionary notion of a self-contained urban community that has agricultural, commercial, and residential facilities under one roof. Two real-world examples of these projects are explored: Arcosanti, AZ and Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Key aspects of the arcology that could be applied to an existing urban fabric are identified, such as urban design fostering social interaction, reduction of automobile dependency, and a development pattern that combats sprawl. Through interviews with local representatives, a holistic approach to applying arcology concepts to the Phoenix Metro Area is devised.
ContributorsSpencer, Sarah Anne (Author) / Manuel-Navarrete, David (Thesis director) / Salon, Deborah (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Since 1979, Phoenix has been organized into 15 theoretically self-contained urban villages in order to manage rapid growth. The major objective of the village plan was to decrease demand for personal vehicle use by internalizing travel to the closest village core, or an adjacent village core, instead of expanding travel to one metropolitan core. Phoenix’s transition from a monocentric urban structure to a more polycentric structure has yet to be studied for its efficacy on this goal of turning personal vehicle travel inward. This paper pairs more conventional measures of automobile dependence, such as, use of alternative modes of transportation in place of private vehicle use and commute times, with more nuanced measures of internal travel between work and home, job housing ratio, and job industry breakdowns to describe Phoenix’s reliance on automobiles. Phoenix’s internal travel ratios were higher when compared to adjacent cities and either on-par or lower when compared to non-adjacent cities that were comparable to Phoenix in population density and size.
ContributorsCuiffo, Kathryn Victoria (Author) / King, David (Thesis director) / Salon, Deborah (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05