Filtering by
- Resource Type: Text
Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.
Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.
Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.
Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.
Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.
Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).
Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.
Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.
The process to answer these questions began by compiling a list of 166 journalists who could provide valuable insight into the current state of sports journalism. Targeted specifically were those journalists who were either currently or had spent extensive time as a beat reporter, as a crucial aspect of the study hinged on the exploration of the role of analytics in day-to-day coverage. Of those 166 journalists, 93 made themselves available through either Twitter direct message or email. Once contacted, 47 of those journalists responded, eventually leading to 27 phone interviews and 7 email interviews.
Each interview began with the journalist establishing a baseline for what they thought the role of analytics should be in the coverage of their respective sports. From there, the conversation often took a linear turn as journalists talked about the experiences in their career that led them to that conclusion, what moments had shifted their overall opinions of analytics, their best approaches for utilizing analytics in both articles and interviews, their favorite and least favorite analytical measures, the gaps that remain in analytics, and the future of the industry as a whole.
Each interview was transcribed, and a number of compelling themes emerged. The many different themes were organized into three different groups, past, present and future, where they were further expanded on to best display the many concepts illustrated in this thesis. Among the themes explored include how journalists use coaches and players to validate statistics, what strategies work best when including analytics in conversations with athletes, how to find story ideas through analytics and the issues plaguing the analytics community. Once themes had been identified, the percentage of journalists who had indicated agreement with the themes were calculated. Thus, themes investigated were represented statistically as well as by a quote from a journalist addressing the idea.
Across 34 interviews with some of the country’s most established and well-respected voices, many of the pressing issues facing analytics in sports journalism today were explored, including the melding of analytical and narrative writing, how best to use analytics in question asking, and the “holy grail” of analytical data. Across interviews, a host of interesting strategies and ideas emerged as journalists examined how the industry reached its current point, what practices are currently most effective, and where the industry is headed. The perspective gained from this thesis gives insight into many of the lesser-discussed elements of journalism, imparting a deeper understanding of the challenges that lay ahead for sports journalism through an examination for how far the industry has come. While analytics and their usage in sports journalism remains a difficult concept to fully encapsulate, this thesis hopefully gives a better look at their complex and ever-evolving relationship.
