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Urban scaling analysis has introduced a new scientific paradigm to the study of cities. With it, the notions of size, heterogeneity and structure have taken a leading role. These notions are assumed to be behind the causes for why cities differ from one another, sometimes wildly. However, the mechanisms by which size, heterogeneity and structure shape the general statistical patterns that describe urban economic output are still unclear. Given the rapid rate of urbanization around the globe, we need precise and formal mathematical understandings of these matters. In this context, I perform in this dissertation probabilistic, distributional and computational explorations of (i) how the broadness, or narrowness, of the distribution of individual productivities within cities determines what and how we measure urban systemic output, (ii) how urban scaling may be expressed as a statistical statement when urban metrics display strong stochasticity, (iii) how the processes of aggregation constrain the variability of total urban output, and (iv) how the structure of urban skills diversification within cities induces a multiplicative process in the production of urban output.
ContributorsGómez-Liévano, Andrés (Author) / Lobo, Jose (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Bettencourt, Luis M. A. (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Background and purpose: Regular physical activity (PA) provides benefits for cognitive health and helps to improve or maintain quality of life among older adults. Objective PA measures have been increasingly used to overcome limitations of self-report measures. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of objectively measured PA and sedentary time with cognitive function among older adults.
Methods: Participants were recruited from the parent REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study. ActicalTM accelerometers provided estimates of PA variables, including moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), high light PA (HLPA), low light PA (LLPA) and sedentary time, for 4-7 consecutive days. Prevalence and incidence of cognitive impairment were defined by the Six-Item Screener. Letter fluency, animal fluency, word list learning and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (orientation and recall) were conducted to assess executive function and memory.
Results: Of the 7,339 participants who provided accelerometer wear data > 4 days (70.1 ± 8.6 yr, 54.2% women, 31.7% African American), 320 participants exhibited impaired cognition. In cross-sectional analysis, participants in the highest MVPA% quartile had 39% lower odds of cognitive impairment than those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.61, 95% C.I.: 0.39-0.95) after full adjustment. Further analysis shows most quartiles of MVPA% and HLPA% were significantly associated with executive function and memory (P<0.01). During 2.7 ± 0.5 years of follow-up, 3,385 participants were included in the longitudinal analysis, with 157 incident cases of cognitive impairment. After adjustments, participants in the highest MVPA% quartile had 51% lower hazards of cognitive impairment (HR: 0.49, 95% C.I.: 0.28-0.86). Additionally, MVPA% was inversely associated with change in memory z-scores (P<0.01), while the highest quartile of HLPA% was inversely associated with change in executive function and memory z-scores (P<0.01).
Conclusion: Higher levels of objectively measured MVPA% were independently associated with lower prevalence and incidence of cognitive impairment, and better memory and executive function in older adults. Higher levels of HLPA% were also independently associated with better memory and executive function. The amount of MVPA associated with lower risk of cognitive impairment (259 min/week) is >70% higher than the minimal amount of MVPA recommended by PA guidelines.
Methods: Participants were recruited from the parent REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study. ActicalTM accelerometers provided estimates of PA variables, including moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), high light PA (HLPA), low light PA (LLPA) and sedentary time, for 4-7 consecutive days. Prevalence and incidence of cognitive impairment were defined by the Six-Item Screener. Letter fluency, animal fluency, word list learning and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (orientation and recall) were conducted to assess executive function and memory.
Results: Of the 7,339 participants who provided accelerometer wear data > 4 days (70.1 ± 8.6 yr, 54.2% women, 31.7% African American), 320 participants exhibited impaired cognition. In cross-sectional analysis, participants in the highest MVPA% quartile had 39% lower odds of cognitive impairment than those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.61, 95% C.I.: 0.39-0.95) after full adjustment. Further analysis shows most quartiles of MVPA% and HLPA% were significantly associated with executive function and memory (P<0.01). During 2.7 ± 0.5 years of follow-up, 3,385 participants were included in the longitudinal analysis, with 157 incident cases of cognitive impairment. After adjustments, participants in the highest MVPA% quartile had 51% lower hazards of cognitive impairment (HR: 0.49, 95% C.I.: 0.28-0.86). Additionally, MVPA% was inversely associated with change in memory z-scores (P<0.01), while the highest quartile of HLPA% was inversely associated with change in executive function and memory z-scores (P<0.01).
Conclusion: Higher levels of objectively measured MVPA% were independently associated with lower prevalence and incidence of cognitive impairment, and better memory and executive function in older adults. Higher levels of HLPA% were also independently associated with better memory and executive function. The amount of MVPA associated with lower risk of cognitive impairment (259 min/week) is >70% higher than the minimal amount of MVPA recommended by PA guidelines.
ContributorsZhu, Wenfei (Author) / Hooker, Steven P (Thesis advisor) / Wadley, Virginia (Committee member) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Der Ananian, Cheryl (Committee member) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Research provides increasing support of self-worth, non-physical motives, and body image for predicting physical activity in women. However, no empirical tests of these associations have been conducted. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) has been recognized as useful for understanding correlates of physical activity. This study tested the feasibility of a novel EMA protocol and explored temporal relationships between daily self-worth and physical activity in middle-aged women. Women aged 35-64 years (N=63; M age=49.2±8.2 years) received text message prompts to an Internet-based mobile survey three times daily for 28 days. The survey assessed momentary activity, self-worth (knowledge, emotional, social, physical, general), and self-efficacy. Women concurrently wore an accelerometer on their non-dominant wrist. Feasibility was assessed via accelerometer wear-time estimates, survey completion rates, and participant feedback. Multilevel models examined the predictive influence of self-worth on daily activity counts. Self-efficacy was also tested due to known relationships with self-worth and physical activity in women. Wear time was high (952.92 ± 100.99 min per day), with only 141 observations lost to non-wear. However, 449 were lost to accelerometer malfunction. Women completed 80.8% of surveys. After excluding missing physical activity data, 67.5% of observations (N=3573) were analyzed. Although women thought the survey was easy to complete, perceptions of the accelerometer were mixed. Approximately 34% of the variance in daily counts was within individuals (ICC=0.66). Average self-efficacy (β=0.005, p=0.009), daily fluctuations in self-efficacy (β=0.001, p<0.001), and daily fluctuations in general self-worth (β=0.04, p=0.003) predicted daily activity. There were significant individual differences in relationships between daily fluctuations in emotional (β=0.006, p=0.02) and general self-worth (β=0.005, p=0.02) and daily activity. The use of text message prompts and an Internet-based mobile survey was feasible for conducting EMA in middle-aged women. Research identifying optimal methods of behavior monitoring in longitudinal studies is needed. Results provide support for small but significant associations among daily fluctuations in self-efficacy and general self-worth and daily activity in middle-aged women. The impact of emotional self-worth may differ across women. Further research examining the transient natures of self-efficacy and general self-worth, improving self-worth scales, and testing momentary strategies to increase women's self-worth and physical activity is warranted.
ContributorsEhlers, Diane K. (Author) / Huberty, Jennifer L (Thesis advisor) / Todd, Michael (Committee member) / Vreede, Gert-Jan de (Committee member) / Hooker, Steven (Committee member) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify whether increased Pokémon GO use resulted in increased daily steps, compared to days when an individual did not play. In addition, this study examined Pokémon GO as a use case for for the study of gamification, particularly whether traditionally identified game mechanics in gamification literature were successfully identified as elements players enjoy when playing Pokémon GO. METHODS: A mixed methods approach, with 17 participants taking part in a daily physical activity tracking study and 14 participants participating in semi-structured interviews. In the use study, participant steps were tracked for one week using the Apple Health Kit application, and participants were also asked to provide daily answers to a variety of questions assessing game preferences and daily use of Pokémon GO - using the application called PACO. The semi-structured interviews examined self-reported physical activity, and asked questions pertaining to use of Pokémon GO, such as motivation to play. RESULTS: Results assessed by t-test indicate a small but non-significant trend towards increased steps taken on days when a participant played vs. did not play (t(72)=- .56, p=.57, mplay=5,0153220, mnonplay=4,5152,959). This was confirmed with a mixed model test showing that when controlling for time and participant’s baseline level of steps, there was no significant effect on steps/day. Results from the daily surveys and also the semi-structured interviews, indicated that nostalgia (i.e., catching ones’ favorite childhood Pokémon), was a strong motivator for many to play the game, which was counter to theoretical expectations. In line with previous theory, results suggested that operant conditioning principles appeared to be at work in terms of fostering game play use. DISCUSSION: Results of this study, which was a primarily hypothesis generating endeavor, indicated possible trends toward increased steps on days when a person plays Pokémon G), but - with such a small sample, and short-term length of study - no firm conclusions can be drawn. Further, results indicate the particular value of nostalgia as a driver towards game play for Pokémon GO.
ContributorsBiel, Alexander M (Author) / Hekler, Eric (Thesis advisor) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Pitchers are a vital part of the game of baseball and may account for up to two-thirds of the variance in win percentage. As they rise through the ranks of competition, physical skill set becomes less of a factor when compared to mentality. Pitchers are the “first line of defense” for keeping opponents from having an opportunity to score, as well as for holding onto their own team’s lead. Baseball pitchers not only face pressure to perform, but also experience stress from factors such as low pay, adjusting to higher levels of competition, and internal team competition for a limited number of spots. Athletes are often resistant to seeking aid from sport psychologists and often turn to unfavorable means to cope (i.e. drugs/alcohol, excessive exercise) with stress instead. Meditation has been shown to have beneficial effects on psychological factors associated with performance including emotional regulation, anxiety, confidence, focus, and mindfulness. Mobile applications have become a popular means of delivering mindfulness. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility and preliminary effectiveness of delivering a mindful meditation intervention using a mobile meditation application to improve psychological factors associated with performance (i.e. emotional regulation, anxiety (somatic and cognitive), confidence, focus, mindfulness) to minor league baseball pitchers. Pitchers in instructional league (Phase one) and off season (Phase two) were asked to meditate daily for 10-minutes each day for three weeks (Phase one) and eight weeks (Phase two). Pitchers were asked to complete self-report questionnaires and satisfaction surveys at pre- and post-intervention. Pitchers in phase one reported enjoying meditation, had improvements in self-confidence and sport confidence, and reported moderate decreases in cognitive anxiety and concentration disruption. Pitchers in phase two also enjoyed meditating (94.7%) and had improvements in self-confidence and moderate decreases in somatic anxiety. Low adherence due to timing (off-season) of intervention may have been a contributing factor to fewer outcomes. Future research should explore the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing meditation during the baseball season.
ContributorsDowling, Tiffany (Author) / Huberty, Jennifer (Thesis advisor) / Ransdell, Lynda (Committee member) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Michel, Jesse (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Sustainability, as it relates to nutrition, affects all aspects of food from systems-level production to consumption. Viability of local food systems in the southwest of the United States has been largely understudied. In order to address this gap in the literature, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 farmers in Arizona and New Mexico to determine best practices, challenges and barriers to farming. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded for themes. Many trends were consistent with those reported elsewhere in the US, but the importance of water emerged, a unique need not explicitly noted in other regional studies.
Vegetarian diets are typically more sustainable than omnivorous ones due to using less environmental resources in the production of food. An important consideration with plant protein and vegetarian diets, however, is whether this would affect athletic performance. To examine this, 70 male and female endurance athletes were compared for maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max), peak torque when doing leg extensions, and body composition. Vegetarians had higher VO2 max, but peak torque was not significantly different by diet. Omnivores had higher total body mass, lean body mass, and there was a trend for peak torque to be higher.
To investigate whether plant-protein can comparably support development of lean body mass and strength development in conjunction with strength training, 61 healthy young males and females began a 12-week training and protein supplementation study. While previous training studies have shown no differences for lean body mass or strength development when consuming either soy (plant) or whey (animal) protein supplements in very large amounts (>48 grams), when consuming around 15-20 grams, whey has contributed to greater lean body mass accrual, although strength increases remain similar. The present study matched supplements by leucine content instead of by total protein amount since leucine has been shown to be a key stimulator of muscle protein synthesis and is more concentrated in animal protein. There were no significant differences between the whey or soy group for lean body mass or strength development, as assessed using isokinetic dynamometry doing leg extensions and flexions.
Vegetarian diets are typically more sustainable than omnivorous ones due to using less environmental resources in the production of food. An important consideration with plant protein and vegetarian diets, however, is whether this would affect athletic performance. To examine this, 70 male and female endurance athletes were compared for maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max), peak torque when doing leg extensions, and body composition. Vegetarians had higher VO2 max, but peak torque was not significantly different by diet. Omnivores had higher total body mass, lean body mass, and there was a trend for peak torque to be higher.
To investigate whether plant-protein can comparably support development of lean body mass and strength development in conjunction with strength training, 61 healthy young males and females began a 12-week training and protein supplementation study. While previous training studies have shown no differences for lean body mass or strength development when consuming either soy (plant) or whey (animal) protein supplements in very large amounts (>48 grams), when consuming around 15-20 grams, whey has contributed to greater lean body mass accrual, although strength increases remain similar. The present study matched supplements by leucine content instead of by total protein amount since leucine has been shown to be a key stimulator of muscle protein synthesis and is more concentrated in animal protein. There were no significant differences between the whey or soy group for lean body mass or strength development, as assessed using isokinetic dynamometry doing leg extensions and flexions.
ContributorsLynch, Heidi (Author) / Wharton, Christopher M (Thesis advisor) / Johnston, Carol (Committee member) / Dickinson, Jared (Committee member) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Swan, Pamela (Committee member) / Ransdell, Lynda (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and sleep are often associated with cardiometabolic biomarkers commonly found in metabolic syndrome. These relationships are well studied, and yet there are still questions on how each activity may affect cardiometabolic biomarkers. The objective of this study was to examine data from the BeWell24 studies to evaluate the relationship between objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviors and cardiometabolic biomarkers in middle age adults, while also determining if sleep quality and duration mediates this relationship. A group of inactive participants (N = 29, age = 52.1 ± 8.1 years, 38% female) with increased risk for cardiometabolic disease were recruited to participate in BeWell24, a trial testing the impact of a lifestyle-based, multicomponent smartphone application targeting sleep, sedentary, and more active behaviors. During baseline, interim (4 weeks), and posttest visits (8 weeks), biomarker measurements were collected for weight (kg), waist circumference (cm), glucose (mg/dl), insulin (uU/ml), lipids (mg/dl), diastolic and systolic blood pressures (mm Hg), and C reactive protein (mg/L). Participants wore validated wrist and thigh sensors for one week intervals at each time point to measure sedentary behavior, physical activity, and sleep outcomes. Long bouts of sitting time (>30 min) significantly affected triglycerides (beta = .15 (±.07), p<.03); however, no significant mediation effects for sleep quality or duration were present. No other direct effects were observed between physical activity measurements and cardiometabolic biomarkers. The findings of this study suggest that reductions in long bouts of sitting time may support reductions in triglycerides, yet these effects were not mediated by sleep-related improvements.
ContributorsLanich, Boyd (Author) / Buman, Matthew (Thesis advisor) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Huberty, Jennifer (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
We develop a general framework to analyze the controllability of multiplex networks using multiple-relation networks and multiple-layer networks with interlayer couplings as two classes of prototypical systems. In the former, networks associated with different physical variables share the same set of nodes and in the latter, diffusion processes take place. We find that, for a multiple-relation network, a layer exists that dominantly determines the controllability of the whole network and, for a multiple-layer network, a small fraction of the interconnections can enhance the controllability remarkably. Our theory is generally applicable to other types of multiplex networks as well, leading to significant insights into the control of complex network systems with diverse structures and interacting patterns.
ContributorsYuan, Zhengzhong (Author) / Zhao, Chen (Author) / Wang, Wen-Xu (Author) / Di, Zengru (Author) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Author) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2014-10-24
Description
Background: While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957–1958 were also examined.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5–14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957–1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08–1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April (Author) / Nelson, Clinton (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Author) / Viboud, Cecile (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-08-11