Matching Items (39)
Description
This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
I built a short-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price-forecasting model for two periods to understand how various drivers of crude oil behaved before and after the Great Recession. According to the Federal Reserve the Great Recession "...began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009" (Rich 1). The research involves two models spanning two periods. The first period encompasses 2000 to late 2007 and the second period encompasses early 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable for this model is monthly average WTI crude oil prices. The independent variables are based on what the academic community believes are drivers of crude oil prices. While the studies may be scattered across different time periods, they provide valuable insight on what the academic community believes drives oil prices. The model includes variables that address two different data groups including: 1. Market fundamentals/expectations of market fundamentals 2. Speculation One of the biggest challenges I faced was defining and quantifying "speculation". I ended up using a previous study's definition of "speculation", which it defined as the activity of certain market participants in the Commitment of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My research shows that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil market exhibited a structural change after the Great Recession. Furthermore, my research also presents interesting findings that warrant further research. For example, I find that 3-month T-bills and 10yr Treasury notes lose their predictive edge starting in the second period (2010-2016). Furthermore, the positive correlation between oil and the U.S. dollar in the period 2000-2007 warrants further investigation. Lastly, it might be interesting to see why T-bills are positively correlated to WTI prices and 10yr Treasury notes are negatively correlated to WTI prices.
ContributorsMirza, Hisham Tariq (Author) / McDaniel, Cara (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The Confessions of a College Entrepreneur is an honors project with the goal of revealing the business and marketing strategies that Charles Crawford used to create multiple successful companies. It's a collection of personal stories, book notes, millionaire interviews, and experiences that Charles had over the past 4 years of intense business experience and research across multiple industries. Charles wants college students and business owners to succeed in business ventures and life in general. This creative thesis project is the map for how to do just that.
ContributorsCrawford, Charles Joseph (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Giles, Charles (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
This paper intends to inform the reader about the current state of crowdfunding, also known as crowdsourced funding, as of early May 2014. Crowdfunding has proven to be an interesting alternate to other more common financing vehicles with its ability to unite people over common ideas and projects without requiring the contribution of large amounts of capital. Further, the changing legal landscape invites a new era of deregulation that makes crowdfunding easier than ever before. This paper contains explanations of the different types of crowdfunding, platforms (websites), and the international landscape particularly of the US and Europe as well as statistics regarding the predicted future growth of the industry.
ContributorsMurphy, Kevin Edward (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Schein, Stephen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
The classification of financially at-risk is an expansive term that fits the personal profile of most individuals when it comes to the conditioning of their attitude toward money management, particularly in the planning and investment of that money for the achievement of long-term goals. In the case of this thesis, we focus primarily on those who have made a career in professional athletics and entertainment. The behavioral finance tendencies of these two industry professions are widely regarded as insufficient and often damaging the to the longevity of achieved financial security. This ideology stems primarily from an environment where individuals enjoy rapid wealth accumulation in a highly competitive and constantly transitioning role within their respective crafts. The subjectively common behavioral shortcomings of these world-class athletes and performers and uncertain day-to-day security of the professions which these at-risk individuals possess make for highly unfavorable circumstances when striving to achieve a lifetime of income and a secure retirement. In examining individuals of these classes who have faced grave financial hardship, this thesis will serve as a basis for identifying measures to recondition problematic behavioral tendencies that ultimately cause disengagement from a prudent financial plan. Therefore, this thesis will also serve as a framework to determine what investment strategies will complement the behavioral modifications financial planners strive to instill in these individuals, so that professional athletes, celebrities, and financially at-risk professionals alike may achieve higher probability of creating financial freedom through the engaged execution of a goals-based financial plan.
ContributorsKeller, Charles Phillip (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
It is evident that this generation of young people are buried in debt, both during college and the years after graduating. There is lots of talk about the problem, but not much talk about the solution. I created a video blog (vlog) that is about personal finances targeted at college students and recent college graduates. The videos cover different topics in each video, on things from saving to investing to budgeting and others. I tried to make it both funny and informative, so that it would not be boring to watch and each video would be easy to learn from. I made 10 videos in total, putting out one video per week. The blog can be found at : wherethisdoughgo.blogspot.com
ContributorsStaley, Matthew Michael Gallagher (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Simonson, Mark (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
With many recent events, such as the 2008 Financial Crisis, still under heavy scrutiny from the public, the payment received by executives at some of the major US banking institutions has been at the center of a major debate: are bank executives overpaid? While many people have attempted to answer this question, it is important to look at historical data and determine whether banks tie executive pay to the performance of the firm. The authors gathered historical 10-K data on firm performance at five major banks (Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, US Bancorp, and Wells Fargo), as well as Proxy Statement data on how top-5 executives were being paid at these banks. Correlations between how the firm performed during a given year and what the executive officers of the bank were paid were calculated, to see whether the two subjects correlated with one another. Results were mixed-certain banks drew large correlations between the pay of executives and firm performance, while other banks did not. Interpretation of such data leads to a belief that some banks rely on overall firm performance when setting pay packages for executives, while other banks do not, perhaps using internal measures of performance unknown to the public. Extensive further research could be conducted on this issue to determine what other measures might play a more prominent role when it comes to deciding pay for executives at big banks.
ContributorsScheven, Tyler (Co-author) / Mayer, Robert (Co-author) / LePine, Marcie (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Sampedro, Louie (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.
ContributorsDundas, Matthew William (Author) / Boggess, May (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hedegaard, Esben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
The goal of this thesis is to motivate college students to be financially aware and drive them toward attainable financial goals and freedom through budgeting. By providing a foundation of financial knowledge, they can begin to make intelligent decisions about their purchases. After they learn about their current spending habits, students can soundly determine what they have monetarily and then how to allocate that money appropriately. The paper outlines different categories these students should focus on fiscally, like rent and housing as the largest expenses and entertainment expenses as a common pitfall in a college student's budget. Constant financial awareness is reiterated throughout, indicating this is a day-to-day skill to develop. The thesis finally ties up with discussing financing options for college and life in general, with student loans, credit cards, and savings.
ContributorsSchachte, Jessica Linn (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
This paper seeks to put a spotlight on much that is wrong in the United States with cancer drug development, pricing, marketing and outcomes. Roche Pharmaceutical's cancer drug, Avastin will be used as an example to highlight these issues. Drug patents, Medicare policies, weak metrics of efficacy and ceaseless demand—allow drug manufacturers to price their oncology treatments as they choose, regardless of results, and with virtually no competition, avenue or institution that serves to lower prices in the United States. Avastin will be established as an oncology drug that is overpriced and poorly evaluated based on its effectiveness. Facts, opinions and study analytics will be offered (from industry experts, insiders, doctors and scientists) that in almost all cases show that patients treated with Avastin receive marginal benefit. Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, reducing conflicts of interest for doctors, setting research & development investment requirements and creating more relevant clinical metrics for use in FDA approvals would help reduce the financial burden on cancer patients and taxpayers.
ContributorsTrettin, Michael William (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05