Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.

The shift from cookbook to authentic research-based lab courses in undergraduate biology necessitates the need for evaluation and assessment of these novel courses. Although the biology education community has made progress in this area, it is important that we interpret the effectiveness of these courses with caution and remain mindful of inherent limitations to our study designs that may impact internal and external validity. The specific context of a research study can have a dramatic impact on the conclusions. We present a case study of our own three-year investigation of the impact of a research-based introductory lab course, highlighting how volunteer students, a lack of a comparison group, and small sample sizes can be limitations of a study design that can affect the interpretation of the effectiveness of a course.

Atmospheric radiocarbon (¹⁴C) represents an important observational constraint on emissions of fossil-fuel derived carbon into the atmosphere due to the absence of ¹⁴C in fossil fuel reservoirs. The high sensitivity and precision that accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) affords in atmospheric ¹⁴C analysis has greatly increased the potential for using such measurements to evaluate bottom-up emissions inventories of fossil fuel CO₂(CO₂ff), as well as those for other co-emitted species. Here we use observations of ¹⁴CO₂ and a series of primary hydrocarbons and combustion tracers from discrete air samples collected between June 2009 and September 2010 at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO; Lat: 40.050° N, Lon: 105.004° W) to derive emission ratios of each species with respect to CO₂ff. The BAO tower is situated at the boundary of the Denver metropolitan area to the south and a large industrial and agricultural region to the north and east, making it an ideal location to study the contrasting mix of emissions from the activities in each region. The species considered in this analysis are carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), acetylene (C₂H₂), benzene (C₆H₆), and C₃–C₅ alkanes. We estimate emissions for a subset of these species by using the Vulcan high resolution CO2ff emission data product as a reference. We find that CO is overestimated in the 2008 National Emissions Inventory (NEI08) by a factor of ~2. A close evaluation of the inventory suggests that the ratio of CO emitted per unit fuel burned from on-road gasoline vehicles is likely over-estimated by a factor of 2.5. Using a wind-directional analysis of the data, we find enhanced concentrations of CH₄, relative to CO₂ff, in air influenced by emissions to the north and east of the BAO tower when compared to air influenced by emissions in the Denver metro region to the south. Along with enhanced CH₄, the strongest enhancements of the C₃–C₅ alkanes are also found in the north and east wind sector, suggesting that both the alkane and CH₄ enhancements are sourced from oil and gas fields located to the northeast, though it was not possible to rule out the contribution of non oil and gas CH₄ sources.

Urban environments are the primary contributors to global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Because much of the growth in CO₂ emissions will originate from cities, there is a need to develop, assess, and improve measurement and modeling strategies for quantifying and monitoring greenhouse gas emissions from large urban centers. In this study the uncertainties in an aircraft-based mass balance approach for quantifying carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an urban environment, focusing on Indianapolis, IN, USA, are described. The relatively level terrain of Indianapolis facilitated the application of mean wind fields in the mass balance approach. We investigate the uncertainties in our aircraft-based mass balance approach by (1) assessing the sensitivity of the measured flux to important measurement and analysis parameters including wind speed, background CO₂ and CH₄, boundary layer depth, and interpolation technique, and (2) determining the flux at two or more downwind distances from a point or area source (with relatively large source strengths such as solid waste facilities and a power generating station) in rapid succession, assuming that the emission flux is constant. When we quantify the precision in the approach by comparing the estimated emissions derived from measurements at two or more downwind distances from an area or point source, we find that the minimum and maximum repeatability were 12 and 52%, with an average of 31%. We suggest that improvements in the experimental design can be achieved by careful determination of the background concentration, monitoring the evolution of the boundary layer through the measurement period, and increasing the number of downwind horizontal transect measurements at multiple altitudes within the boundary layer.

Large urban emissions of greenhouse gases result in large atmospheric enhancements relative to background that are easily measured. Using CO₂ mole fractions and Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C values of CO₂ in the Los Angeles megacity observed in inland Pasadena (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes peninsula (autumn 2009–2013), we have determined time series for CO₂ contributions from fossil fuel combustion (C_ff) for both sites and broken those down into contributions from petroleum and/or gasoline and natural gas burning for Pasadena. We find a 10 % reduction in Pasadena C_ff during the Great Recession of 2008–2010, which is consistent with the bottom-up inventory determined by the California Air Resources Board. The isotopic variations and total atmospheric CO₂ from our observations are used to infer seasonality of natural gas and petroleum combustion. The trend of CO₂ contributions to the atmosphere from natural gas combustion is out of phase with the seasonal cycle of total natural gas combustion seasonal patterns in bottom-up inventories but is consistent with the seasonality of natural gas usage by the area's electricity generating power plants. For petroleum, the inferred seasonality of CO₂ contributions from burning petroleum is delayed by several months relative to usage indicated by statewide gasoline taxes. Using the high-resolution Hestia-LA data product to compare C_ff from parts of the basin sampled by winds at different times of year, we find that variations in observed fossil fuel CO₂ reflect seasonal variations in wind direction. The seasonality of the local CO₂ excess from fossil fuel combustion along the coast, on Palos Verdes peninsula, is higher in autumn and winter than spring and summer, almost completely out of phase with that from Pasadena, also because of the annual variations of winds in the region. Variations in fossil fuel CO₂ signals are consistent with sampling the bottom-up Hestia-LA fossil CO₂ emissions product for sub-city source regions in the LA megacity domain when wind directions are considered.

Recent advances in fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) emission inventories enable sensitivity tests of simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to sub-annual variations in FFCO₂ emissions and what this implies for the interpretation of observed CO₂. Six experiments are conducted to investigate the potential impact of three cycles of FFCO₂ emission variability (diurnal, weekly and monthly) using a global tracer transport model. Results show an annual FFCO₂ rectification varying from −1.35 to +0.13 ppm from the combination of all three cycles. This rectification is driven by a large negative diurnal FFCO₂ rectification due to the covariation of diurnal FFCO₂ emissions and diurnal vertical mixing, as well as a smaller positive seasonal FFCO₂ rectification driven by the covariation of monthly FFCO₂ emissions and monthly atmospheric transport. The diurnal FFCO₂ emissions are responsible for a diurnal FFCO₂ concentration amplitude of up to 9.12 ppm at the grid cell scale. Similarly, the monthly FFCO₂ emissions are responsible for a simulated seasonal CO₂ amplitude of up to 6.11 ppm at the grid cell scale. The impact of the diurnal FFCO₂ emissions, when only sampled in the local afternoon, is also important, causing an increase of +1.13 ppmv at the grid cell scale. The simulated CO₂ concentration impacts from the diurnally and seasonally varying FFCO₂ emissions are centered over large source regions in the Northern Hemisphere, extending to downwind regions. This study demonstrates the influence of sub-annual variations in FFCO₂ emissions on simulated CO₂ concentration and suggests that inversion studies must take account of these variations in the affected regions.

Course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) meet national recommendations for integrating research experiences into life science curricula. As such, CUREs have grown in popularity and many research studies have focused on student outcomes from CUREs. Institutional change literature highlights that understanding faculty is also key to new pedagogies succeeding. To begin to understand faculty perspectives on CUREs, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 61 faculty who teach CUREs regarding why they teach CUREs, what the outcomes are, and how they would discuss a CURE with a colleague. Using grounded theory, participant responses were coded and categorized as tangible or intangible, related to both student and faculty-centered themes. We found that intangible themes were prevalent, and that there were significant differences in the emphasis on tangible themes for faculty who have developed their own independent CUREs when compared with faculty who implement pre-developed, national CUREs. We focus our results on the similarities and differences among the perspectives of faculty who teach these two different CURE types and explore trends among all participants. The results of this work highlight the need for considering a multi-dimensional framework to understand, promote, and successfully implement CUREs.

We recommend using backward design to develop course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs). The defining hallmark of CUREs is that students in a formal lab course explore research questions with unknown answers that are broadly relevant outside the course. Because CUREs lead to novel research findings, they represent a unique course design challenge, as the dual nature of these courses requires course designers to consider two distinct, but complementary, sets of goals for the CURE: 1) scientific discovery milestones (i.e., research goals) and 2) student learning in cognitive, psychomotor, and affective domains (i.e., pedagogical goals). As more undergraduate laboratory courses are re-imagined as CUREs, how do we thoughtfully design these courses to effectively meet both sets of goals? In this Perspectives article, we explore this question and outline recommendations for using backward design in CURE development.

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂(FFCO₂) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km² or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO₂ emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO₂ emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as  ∼  1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO₂ emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO₂ emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO₂ emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO₂ concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO₂ fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO₂ fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO₂ emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO₂ emissions modelling with  ∼1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.