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Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Collaborative learning has been found to enhance student learning experiences through interaction with peers and instructors in a way that typically does not occur in a traditional lecture course. However, more than half of all collaborative learning structures have failed to last very long after their initial introductions which makes understanding the factors of collaboration that make it successful very important. The purpose of this study was to evaluate collaborative learning in a blended learning course to gauge student perceptions and the factors of collaboration and student demographics that impact that perception. This was done by surveying a sample of students in BIO 282 about their experiences in the BIO 281 course they took previously which was a new introductory Biology course with a blended learning structure. It was found that students agree that collaboration is beneficial as it provides an opportunity to gain additional insight from peers and improve students' understanding of course content. Also, differences in student gender and first generation status have less of an effect on student perceptions of collaboration than differences in academic achievement (grade) bracket.
ContributorsVu, Bethany Thao-Vy (Author) / Stout, Valerie (Thesis director) / Brownell, Sara (Committee member) / Wright, Christian (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Influenza remains a constant concern for public health agencies across the nation and worldwide. Current methods of surveillance suffice but they fall short of their true potential. Incorporation of evolutionary data and analysis through studies such as phylogeography could reveal geographic sources of variation. Identification and targeting of such sources for public health initiatives could yield increased effectiveness of influenza treatments. As it stands there is a lack of evolutionary data available for such use, particularly in the southwest. Our study focused on the sequencing and phylogeography of southwestern Influenza A samples from the Mayo Clinic. We fully sequenced two neuraminidase genes and combined them with archived sequence data from the Influenza Research Database. Using RAxML we identified the clade containing our sequences and performed a phylogeographic analysis using ZooPhy. The resultant data were analyzed using programs such as SPREAD and Tracer. Our results show that the southwest sequences emerged from California and the ancestral root of the clade came from New York. Our Bayesian maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree data and SPREAD analysis implicates California as a source of influenza variation in the United States. This study demonstrates that phylogeography is a viable tool to incorporate evolutionary data into existing forms of influenza surveillance.
ContributorsTurnock, Adam Ryan (Author) / Scotch, Matthew (Thesis director) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / Pycke, Benny (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Trichloroethene (TCE) and hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] are toxic and carcinogenic contaminants found in drinking water resources across the United States. A series of Bench-scale treatability studies were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a consortium of facultative and strictly anaerobic bacteria, KB-1®, to remove TCE and Cr(VI) from a contaminated aquifer in San Diego. These series of treatability studies were also performed to prepare data and mature packed sediment columns for the deployment of the In Situ Microcosm Array (ISMA), a diagnostic device for determining optimal treatments for a contaminated aquifer, at this particular site. First, a control panel for the ISMA’s Injection Module (IM) was created in order to deliver nutrients to the columns. Then, a column treatability study was performed in order to produce columns with an established KB-1® consortium, so that all TCE in the column influent was converted to ethene by the time it had exited the column. Finally, a batch bottle treatability study was performed to determine KB-1®’s effectiveness at remediating both TCE and Cr(VI) from the San Diego ground-water samples. The results from the column study found that KB-1® was able to reduce TCE in mineral media. However, in the presence of site ground-water for the batch bottle study, KB-1® was only able to reduce Cr(VI) and no TCE dechlorination was observed. This result suggests that the dechlorinating culture cannot survive prolonged exposure to Cr(VI). Therefore, future work may involve repeating the batch bottle study with Cr(VI) removed from the groundwater prior to inoculation to determine if KB-1® is then able to dechlorinate TCE.
ContributorsDuong, Benjamin Taylor (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Torres, Cesar (Committee member) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Dance (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Plastics continue to benefit society in innumerable ways, even though recent public focus on plastics has centered mostly on human health and environmental concerns, including their endocrine-disrupting properties and the long-term pollution they represent. The benefits of plastics are particularly apparent in medicine and public health. Plastics are versatile, cost-effective, require less energy to produce than alternative materials like metal or glass, and can be manufactured to have many different properties. Due to these characteristics, polymers are used in diverse health applications like disposable syringes and intravenous bags, sterile packaging for medical instruments as well as in joint replacements, tissue engineering, etc. However, not all current uses of plastics are prudent and sustainable, as illustrated by the widespread, unwanted human exposure to endocrine-disrupting bisphenol A (BPA) and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), problems arising from the large quantities of plastic being disposed of, and depletion of non-renewable petroleum resources as a result of the ever-increasing mass production of plastic consumer articles. Using the health-care sector as example, this review concentrates on the benefits and downsides of plastics and identifies opportunities to change the composition and disposal practices of these invaluable polymers for a more sustainable future consumption. It highlights ongoing efforts to phase out DEHP and BPA in the health-care and food industry and discusses biodegradable options for plastic packaging, opportunities for reducing plastic medical waste, and recycling in medical facilities in the quest to reap a maximum of benefits from polymers without compromising human health or the environment in the process.
ContributorsNorth, Emily Jean (Co-author) / Halden, Rolf (Co-author, Thesis director) / Mikhail, Chester (Committee member) / Hurlbut, Ben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
We, a team of students and faculty in the life sciences at Arizona State University (ASU), currently teach an Introduction to Biology course in a Level 5, or maximum-security unit with the support of the Arizona Department of Corrections and the Prison Education Program at ASU. This course aims to enhance current programs at the unit by offering inmates an opportunity to practice literacy and math skills, while also providing exposure to a new academic field (science, and specifically biology). Numerous studies, including a 2005 study from the Arizona Department of Corrections (ADC), have found that vocational programs, including prison education programs, reduce recidivism rates (ADC 2005, Esperian 2010, Jancic 1988, Steurer et al. 2001, Ubic 2002) and may provide additional benefits such as engagement with a world outside the justice system (Duguid 1992), the opportunity for inmates to revise personal patterns of rejecting education that they may regret, and the ability of inmate parents to deliberately set a good example for their children (Hall and Killacky 2008). Teaching in a maximum security prison unit poses special challenges, which include a prohibition on most outside materials (except paper), severe restrictions on student-teacher and student-student interactions, and the inability to perform any lab exercises except limited computer simulations. Lack of literature discussing theoretical and practical aspects of teaching science in such environment has prompted us to conduct an ongoing study to generate notes and recommendations from this class through the use of surveys, academic evaluation of students' work and ongoing feedback from both teachers and students to inform teaching practices in future science classes in high-security prison units.
ContributorsLarson, Anika Jade (Author) / Mor, Tsafrir (Thesis director) / Brownell, Sara (Committee member) / Lockard, Joe (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The objective of this research was to predict the persistence of potential future contaminants in indirect potable reuse systems. In order to accurately estimate the fates of future contaminants in indirect potable reuse systems, results describing persistence from EPI Suite were modified to include sorption and oxidation. The target future contaminants studied were the approximately 2000 pharmaceuticals currently undergoing testing by United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA). Specific organic substances such as analgesics, antibiotics, and pesticides were used to verify the predicted half-lives by comparing with reported values in the literature. During sub-surface transport, an important component of indirect potable reuse systems, the effects of sorption and oxidation are important mechanisms. These mechanisms are not considered by the quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model predictions for half-lives from EPI Suite. Modifying the predictions from EPI Suite to include the effects of sorption and oxidation greatly improved the accuracy of predictions in the sub-surface environment. During validation, the error was reduced by over 50% when the predictions were modified to include sorption and oxidation. Molecular weight (MW) is an important criteria for estimating the persistence of chemicals in the sub-surface environment. EPI Suite predicts that high MW compounds are persistent since the QSAR model assumes steric hindrances will prevent transformations. Therefore, results from EPI Suite can be very misleading for high MW compounds. Persistence was affected by the total number of halogen atoms in chemicals more than the sum of N-heterocyclic aromatics in chemicals. Most contaminants (over 90%) were non-persistent in the sub-surface environment suggesting that the target future drugs do not pose a significant risk to potable reuse systems. Another important finding is that the percentage of compounds produced from the biotechnology industry is increasing rapidly and should dominate the future production of pharmaceuticals. In turn, pharmaceuticals should become less persistent in the future. An evaluation of indirect potable reuse systems that use reverse osmosis (RO) for potential rejection of the target contaminants was performed by statistical analysis. Most target compounds (over 95%) can be removed by RO based on size rejection and other removal mechanisms.
ContributorsLim, Seung (Author) / Fox, Peter (Thesis advisor) / Abbaszadegan, Morteza (Committee member) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
A meta-analysis was conducted to compare the total amount of ionic liquid (IL) literature (n = 39,036) to the body of publications dealing with IL toxicity (n = 213), with the goal of establishing the state of knowledge and existing information gaps. Publications on IL toxicity were collected from the SciFinder database and sorted by cation and model organism studied. Studies focusing on pharmacokinetics and drug development were excluded, as were structure-activity relationship methods of data collection. Total publishing activity was used as a measure to gauge research and industrial usage of ILs as well as the knowledge base of toxicology. Five of the most commonly studied IL cations were identified and used to establish a relationship between toxicity data and potential of commercial use: imidazolium, ammonium, phosphonium, pyridinium, and pyrrolidinium. Toxicology publications for all IL cations represented 1.2% ± 0.62% of the total publishing activity; compared with other industrial chemicals, these numbers indicate that there is still a paucity of studies on the adverse effects of this class of chemicals. In vitro models and marine bacteria were the most frequently studied biological systems, contributing 18% and 15%, respectively, to the total body of IL toxicity studies. Whole animal studies (n = 87) comprised 41% of IL toxicity studies, with a subset of in vivo mammalian models consisting of 8%. Human toxicology data were found to be limited to in vitro analyses, indicating substantial knowledge gaps. Risks from long-term and chronic low-level exposure to ILs have not been established yet for any model organisms, reemphasizing the need for filling crucial knowledge gaps concerning human health effects and the environmental safety of ILs. Adding to the existing knowledge of the molecular toxicity characteristics of ILs can help inform the design of greener, less toxic and more benign IL technologies.
ContributorsHeckenbach, Mary (Co-author) / Halden, Rolf (Co-author, Thesis director) / Jehn, Megan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24