Using the individual building energy simulation approach, I also estimate the impact of climate change to different building types at over 900 US locations. Large increases in building energy consumption are found in the summer, especially during the daytime (e.g., >100% increase for warehouses, 5-6 pm). Large variation of impact is also found within climate zones, suggesting a potential bias when estimating climate-zone scale changes with a small number of representative locations.
As a result of climate change, the building energy expenditures increase in some states (as much as $3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as $1.4 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly $4.7 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost (exceeding $19 billion) of adding electricity generation capacity in order to maintain the electricity grid’s reliability in summer.
In this study, WRF-Chem is utilized at high resolution (1.333 km grid spacing for the innermost domain) to investigate impacts of southern California anthropogenic emissions (SoCal) on Phoenix ground-level ozone concentrations ([O3]) for a pair of recent exceedance episodes. First, WRF-Chem control simulations, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2005 National Emissions Inventories (NEI05), are conducted to evaluate model performance. Compared with surface observations of hourly ozone, CO, NOX, and wind fields, the control simulations reproduce observed variability well. Simulated [O3] are comparable with the previous studies in this region. Next, the relative contribution of SoCal and Arizona local anthropogenic emissions (AZ) to ozone exceedances within the Phoenix metropolitan area is investigated via a trio of sensitivity simulations: (1) SoCal emissions are excluded, with all other emissions as in Control; (2) AZ emissions are excluded with all other emissions as in Control; and (3) SoCal and AZ emissions are excluded (i.e., all anthropogenic emissions are eliminated) to account only for Biogenic emissions and lateral boundary inflow (BILB). Based on the USEPA NEI05, results for the selected events indicate the impacts of AZ emissions are dominant on daily maximum 8 h average (DMA8) [O3] in Phoenix. SoCal contributions to DMA8 [O3] for the Phoenix metropolitan area range from a few ppbv to over 30 ppbv (10–30 % relative to Control experiments). [O3] from SoCal and AZ emissions exhibit the expected diurnal characteristics that are determined by physical and photochemical processes, while BILB contributions to DMA8 [O3] in Phoenix also play a key role.
Given increasing utility of numerical models to examine urban impacts on meteorology and climate, there exists an urgent need for accurate representation of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating data, an important component of the urban energy budget for cities across the world. Incorporation of anthropogenic heating data as inputs to existing climate modeling systems has direct societal implications ranging from improved prediction of energy demand to health assessment, but such data are lacking for most cities. To address this deficiency we have applied a standardized procedure to develop a national database of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for 61 of the largest cities in the United Stated (U.S.). Recognizing the importance of spatial scale, the anthropogenic heating database developed includes the city scale and the accompanying greater metropolitan area.
Our analysis reveals that a single profile function can adequately represent anthropogenic heating during summer but two profile functions are required in winter, one for warm climate cities and another for cold climate cities. On average, although anthropogenic heating is 40% larger in winter than summer, the electricity sector contribution peaks during summer and is smallest in winter. Because such data are similarly required for international cities where urban climate assessments are also ongoing, we have made a simple adjustment accounting for different international energy consumption rates relative to the U.S. to generate seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for a range of global cities. The methodological approach presented here is flexible and straightforwardly applicable to cities not modeled because of presently unavailable data. Because of the anticipated increase in global urban populations for many decades to come, characterizing this fundamental aspect of the urban environment – anthropogenic heating – is an essential element toward continued progress in urban climate assessment.