Matching Items (574)
Description
The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.
ContributorsZhang, Zhihan Jennifer (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Tomita, Melissa (Committee member) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This research aims to look at the lower level collegiate athletics, Intramural sports and club sports, in comparison to Division 1 varsity athletics to see how their sport lives differ and why they are still competing when the reward does not seem as grand as the Varsity athletics. The findings show that the socially ingrained aspect of sports is the reason that most lower level athletes keep competing.
ContributorsHarvey, Abigail (Author) / Jonsson, Hjorleifur (Thesis director) / Jackson, Victoria (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This report will provide an analysis of frontier market equity-based investment funds with respect to bivariate correlation analysis, global integration analysis, and US optimized portfolio statistics. My analysis has indicated strong diversification benefits of including frontier market equities in a US portfolio, given its low correlation to US equity concentrated portfolios especially portfolios that would consist of midcap and smallcap stocks. With the drawbacks of the bivariate correlation test, an additional global integration analysis has been included to reaffirm the value frontier markets offer in the form of integration. Integration is a second layer of the diversification analysis. I find that when analyzing frontier markets (FM) against developed markets (DM) there exhibits significantly less integration as compared to emerging markets against developed markets. This analysis goes one step further and quantifies integration of specific frontier market funds against the broader emerging and developed markets. This study finds that iShares MSCI frontier 100 ETF (Ticker: FM) exhibits the least integration amongst Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (Ticker: FRN), Templeton Frontier Markets A (Ticker: TFMAX), and Morgan Stanley Frontier Emg (Ticker: MFMIX). Lastly, this analysis covers the inadequacy with using Sharpe ratios and minimum volatility parameters to achieve portfolio optimization under a Monte-Carlo style 1000 portfolio simulation with frontier market funds in a broader US equity portfolio but finds better results when using a US equity and US bond combination portfolio. Overall, this analysis of frontier markets and frontier market funds has shown there still exists significant diversification benefits to US Investors when they engage in FM investments, specifically through diversified FM investment funds.
ContributorsHardy, Gunner Laine (Author) / Pruitt, Seth (Thesis director) / Brada, Josef (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Research on California water markets has historically made two inaccurate assumptions regarding water rights: that water is a one-dimensional commodity, and that every water rights holder is in the market to sell. In reality, water is a bundled good that comprises varying attributes, and the decision to become a seller often has more to do with politics than price. This thesis analyzes the heterogeneous dimensions of a water right to explain the evolution of supply, demand, and price in California water markets. A dataset of 712 short-term surface water transfers in California from the period of 1990 through 2016 is analyzed to explain market trends and model the price of water. The data comes from a proprietary dataset of water transfers provided by WestWater Research, LLC (WestWater). Transfer data is distinguished based on variables such as buyer and seller experience, perennial crop plantings, seasonal timing of sale, buyer and seller region, water-year type, and end use. A variety of figures present summary statistics of the data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used to identify variables that are statistically significant in estimating the unit price of water in dollars per acre-foot ($/AF). The regression shows that State Water Bank (SWB) purchases, Environmental Water Account (EWA) purchases, environmental end use, North of Delta (NOD) seller location, the San Joaquin Valley Water-Year Index (San Joaquin Index), total perennial crop acreage, and purchases made by South Coast buyers were statistically significant at the 95% or 99% confidence interval. These variables were included in the final econometric model to estimate price.
ContributorsArnao, Audrey Louise (Author) / Hanemann, Michael (Thesis director) / Payne, Matthew (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The Italian luxury fashion industry is home to many of the world's top fashion houses and is intricately connected to traditional Italian cultural values. Over the past several decades, Italian luxury fashion has been highly desirable throughout markets across the world due to its exquisite design and craftsmanship. Since the conclusion of World War II the Italian luxury fashion industry has continuously developed and been highly successful in foreign markets, notably including the United States. This study explores cross-cultural management in the Italian luxury fashion industry from an American perspective. The report begins with a brief history of the industry beginning in 1945 and extending into the early 2000s, a period characterized by tremendous growth domestically and abroad. Subsequently, three cross-cultural management frameworks are utilized to compare Italian and American culture values including Erin Meyer's "The Culture Map," Geert Hofstede's Psychological Framework, and Fons Trompenaars' Expansive Framework. This research serves as the foundation for the final component of the report detailing a cross-cultural management framework for American partners in the Italian luxury fashion industry. This framework reflects potential areas of cross-cultural conflict in addition to current trends within the industry, such as increasingly complex supply chains. The framework is divided into four sections \u2014 Strategic Leadership; Internationalization; Value Chains, Sustainability, and Innovation; and Exclusivity and the "Made in Italy" Label in a Global Economy. Along with the discussion of each component, mini case studies highlighting four of the leading companies in the market \u2014 Versace, Gucci, Prada, and Armani \u2014 are included. Each of these mini case studies provides a brief overview of the company and takes a unique perspective illustrating one or more components of the cross-cultural management practices essential to the successful operation of global fashion houses. The report concludes with three cross-cultural dimensions in which American managers should be especially vigilant when navigating the Italian luxury fashion industry including time orientation, task-based versus relationship-based trust, and neutral versus affective communication. The findings from this study are aimed at executive coaching and consulting environments due to the current lack of literature on the Italian luxury fashion industry.
ContributorsCoffman, Kaitlin Taylor (Author) / Goldman, Alan (Thesis director) / Frost, Donald (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The focus of this study was to address the problem of prohibitively expensive LiDARs currently being used in autonomous vehicles by analyzing the capabilities and shortcomings of affordable LiDARs as replacements. This involved the characterization of affordable LiDARs that are currently available on the market. The characterization of the LiDARs involved testing refresh rates, field of view, distance the sensors could detect, reflectivity, and power of the emitters. The four LiDARs examined in this study were the Scanse, RPLIDAR A2, LeddarTech Vu8, and LeddarTech M16. Of these low cost LiDAR options we find the two best options for use in affordable autonomous vehicle sensors to be the RPLIDAR A2 and the LeddarTech M16.
ContributorsMurphy, Thomas Joseph (Co-author) / Gamal, Eltohamy (Co-author) / Yu, Hongbin (Thesis director) / Houghton, Todd (Committee member) / Electrical Engineering Program (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Teacher preparation programs and how they function and educate future teachers can have large-scale impacts within the classroom, yet in the United States we see these processes operating drastically differently in various states, cities, and universities. In order to understand some of the differences in teacher preparation programs and how they differ from other programs, this study reviews the literature and shares the experiences of current students in teacher preparation programs both in the United States and Finland. Finland's education system has risen to international notoriety with the use and reporting of the country's strong ranking on the Programme for International Student Achievement or PISA. In 2001 during the inaugural publication of the PISA results, Finland was ranked in the top three of all three subject areas (science, reading, and mathematics literacy) amongst other nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The small Nordic nation exceeded anyone's expectations of their performance on the PISA and gained worldwide recognition for the high caliber of their students and their education system. One of the biggest components of a strong education system is the strength and caliber of its teachers. As a part of the Finnish reforms in the 1970's, policies and oversight were put in place regarding the preparation of teachers for Finnish schools. The level of preparation and the qualifications of teachers were increased as a part of these reform efforts and as such Finnish teachers are required to hold at minimum, a Master's degree. Teacher preparation programs in Finland have been consolidated into just eight universities nationwide with rigorous programs and a research emphasis. Teaching in Finland is also a highly sought after and well-regarded career path. According to the Finnish Teacher Training Schools, "[i]n 2016, over 6600 applicants competed for the 660 available slots in primary school preparation programmes" (About us, 2017). With an admission rate of only ten percent, teacher preparation programs are extremely competitive, oftentimes rivaling admission rates of medical or law schools. As the United States seeks to strengthen its education system, it is vital that we learn from the success of other nations. Making changes to the policies and processes of teacher training has been highly successful in strengthening the Finnish education system and contains insights relevant to improving the education system here in the US. Experiences, insights, and observations of the Finnish teacher training process can be impactful in evaluating ways in which the United States could seek to improve its own teacher training. Based on the available literature and experiences shared by both Finnish and American teacher preparation students and program graduates, I will compare some of the differences between the two systems and provide recommendations as to how the United States could incorporate some of the successful components of Finnish teacher training programs into its own offerings as it works to better prepare teachers for the classroom.
ContributorsEtz, Shannon Faye (Author) / LePore, Paul (Thesis director) / Ingram-Waters, Mary (Committee member) / Division of Teacher Preparation (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Since 2014, the legal marijuana industry has flourished in Colorado, the first state to ever legalize its recreational use in the United States. It is necessary to fully understand the economic impact of the implementation of the recreational system as well as the characteristics of the market for lawmakers, business owners, and voters to make educated decisions on future legislation. This report will delve into these matters in an objective manner to provide all the stakeholders in any present or future recreational marijuana market (users, business owners, legislators) with accurate information on the current state of the industry. Starting with an introduction of the history of marijuana in the United States, as well as the factors that led to its illegality, offers insight into the past and current laws currently impacting the recreational marijuana market in Colorado, with special emphasis on the state regulatory framework in place at this time. The analysis will include an in-depth examination of the current market forces at play in the recreational marijuana market, including technological, sociological, and economic factors, with a look at current business-level strategies for marijuana businesses and the threats arising from alcohol and tobacco, the drug's main substitutes. This report will explain the tax framework in place in Colorado, and investigate trends in market sales and tax revenues, including detailed statistics on the distribution of tax revenue throughout the state. A comprehensive analysis of the legislative issues the market faces, both in Colorado and across the country, will thoroughly indicate the major problems the industry must overcome in the future, or whether it can do so at all. These will include difficulties in the banking, taxation, insurance, and bankruptcy systems that marijuana-related businesses currently face.
ContributorsDosad, Jay (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
My thesis offers original research is in its direct analysis of the IRS conflict of interest regulations and their applicability to STOs, its discussion of my experience setting up an STO, and my interviews of State Legislators as a primary source. The primary goals of my investigation are to 1. Determine the regulations and standards that exist to prevent conflicts of interest in the operation of Arizona STOs. 2. Examine instances of alleged conflicts of interest encountered by STO operators. 3. Discuss the ethical implications of STO operator actions in situations of conflicts of interest. And 4. Propose legislative solutions to remove any and all conflicts of interest. From my examination of financial records and from my interviews with other state legislators, I have concluded that Arizona Christina School Tuition Organization is violating IRS regulations by operating with an objective of conferring on its director a private benefit. The STO I helped form, ------------- STO will need to carefully document its expenses and contracts to justify its overhead margin or else risk running afoul of the same IRS regulations. Even if an STO like ------------- STO, is allowed by Arizona law to have an overhead margin of 10%, those expenses must be justified, particularly if they confer a private benefit to restricted persons. Ultimately, even if an STO deliberately flouts IRS regulations regarding private benefits realized by "disqualified" persons, it is highly unlikely that the STO will face IRS scrutiny. Therefore, there exist sufficient federal regulatory safeguards to prevent financial conflicts of interest among Arizona STO board members, but such regulations are not sufficiently enforced to prevent those conflicts of interest.
ContributorsGunther, Nicholas (Author) / Koretz, Lora (Thesis director) / Bonfiglio, Thomas (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
DescriptionDuring my summer internship at a major cable TV network, I pitched the network various show concepts for new reality TV programming. Since then, I have created my own casting company in order to continue developing these shows by casting nationwide for talent.
ContributorsHouts, Hannah Mackenzie (Author) / Bernstein, Gregory (Thesis director) / Maday, Gregory (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Film, Dance and Theatre (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05