Matching Items (124)
Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
This thesis contains three chapters, all of which involve using culturally inclusive education to explore the experiences of religious undergraduate biology students. The first chapter is an essay entitled "Toward Culturally Inclusive Undergraduate Biology Education," which describes a literature review performed with the aim of characterizing the landscape of cultural competence and related terms for biology educators and biology education researchers. This chapter highlights the use of 16 different terms related to cultural competence and presents these terms, their definitions, and highlights their similarities and differences. This chapter also identifies gaps in the cultural competence literature, and presents a set of recommendations to support better culturally inclusive interventions in undergraduate science education. The second chapter, entitled "Different Evolution Acceptance Instruments Lead to Different Research Findings," describes a study in which the source of 30 years of conflicting research on the relationship between evolution acceptance and evolution understanding was determined. The results of this study showed that different instruments used to measure evolution acceptance sometimes lead to different research results and conclusions. The final chapter, entitled "Believing That Evolution is Atheistic is Associated with Poor Evolution Education Outcomes Among Religious College Students," describes a study characterizing definitions of evolution that religious undergraduate biology students may hold, and examines the impact that those definitions of evolution have on multiple outcome variables. In this study, we found that among the most religious students, those who thought evolution is atheistic were less accepting of evolution, less comfortable learning evolution, and perceived greater conflict between their personal religious beliefs and evolution than those who thought evolution is agnostic.
ContributorsDunlop, Hayley Marie (Author) / Brownell, Sara (Thesis director) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Barnes, M. Elizabeth (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Dielectrophoresis has been shown in the recent past to successfully separate bioparticles of very subtle differences at high resolutions using biophysical forces. In this study, we test the biophysical differences of methicillin resistant and susceptible Staph. aureus that are known to have very similar genomes by using a modified gradient insulator-based dielectrophoresis device (g-iDEP). MRSA is commonly seen in hospitals and is the leading killer of infectious bacteria, claiming the lives of around 10,000 people annually. G-iDEP improves many capabilities within the DEP field including sample size, cost, ease of use and analysis time. This is a promising foundation to creating a more clinically optimized diagnostic tool for both separation and detection of bacteria in the healthcare field. The capture on-set potential for fluorescently tagged MRSA (801 ± 34V) is higher than fluorescently tagged MSSA (610 ± 32V), resulting in a higher electrokinetic to dielectrophoretic mobility ratio for MRSA. Since the strains have proven to be genomically similar through sequencing, it is reasonable to attribute this significant biophysical difference to the added PBP2a enzyme in MRSA. These results are consistent with other bacterial studied within in this device and have proven to be reproducible.
ContributorsSmithers, Jared (Author) / Hayes, Mark (Thesis director) / Woodbury, Neal (Committee member) / School of Criminology and Criminal Justice (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Diabesity is a global epidemic affecting millions worldwide. Diabesity is the term given to the link between obesity and Type II diabetes. It is estimated that ~90% of patients diagnosed with Type II diabetes are overweight or have struggled with excess body fat in the past. Type II diabetes is characterized by insulin resistance which is an impaired response of the body to insulin that leads to high blood glucose levels. Adipose tissue, previously thought of as an inert tissue, is now recognized as a major endocrine organ with an important role in the body's immune response and the development of chronic inflammation. It is speculated that adipose tissue inflammation is a major contributor to insulin resistance particular to Type II diabetes. This literature review explores the popular therapeutic targets and marketed drugs for the treatment of Type II diabetes and their role in decreasing adipose tissue inflammation. rAGE is currently in pre-clinical studies as a possible target to combat adipose tissue inflammation due to its relation to insulin resistance. Metformin and Pioglitazone are two drugs already being marketed that use unique chemical pathways to increase the production of insulin and/or decrease blood glucose levels. Sulfonylureas is one of the first FDA approved drugs used in the treatment of Type II diabetes, however, it has been discredited due to its life-threatening side effects. Bariatric surgery is a form of invasive surgery to rid the body of excess fat and has shown to normalize blood glucose levels. These treatments are all secondary to lifestyle changes, such as diet and exercise which can help halt the progression of Type II diabetes patients.
ContributorsRobles, Alondra Maria (Author) / Woodbury, Neal (Thesis director) / Redding, Kevin (Committee member) / Allen, James (Committee member) / Hendrickson, Kirstin (Committee member) / Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The first numerical predictions of the dynamical diquark model of multiquark exotic hadrons are presented. Using Born-Oppenheimer potentials calculated from lattice QCD and phenomenological diquark(triquark) masses, mass eigenvalues that are degenerate in spin and isospin are computed from numerical solutions to both coupled and uncoupled Schroedinger equations. Assuming reasonable estimates of the fine-structure splittings, we find that the band structure of our mass spectra agrees well with the experimentally observed spectrum of charmonium-like states. Using our best fits, we predict a number of unobserved states, such as pentaquark states that lie below the charmonium-plus-nucleon threshold.
ContributorsPeterson, Curtis Taylor Taylor (Author) / Lebed, Richard (Thesis director) / Belitsky, Andrei (Committee member) / Department of Physics (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The Heliobacterial Reaction Center (HbRC) is the simplest Type I Reaction Center (RC) known today. However, upon illumination it has been found to produce menaquinol, and this has led to experiments investigating the function of this reduction scheme. The goal of the experiment was to investigate the mechanisms of menaquinol production through the use of Photosystem II (PSII) herbicides that are known to inhibit the QB quinone site in Type II RCs. Seven herbicides were chosen, and out of all of them terbuthylazine showed the greatest effect on the RC in isolated membranes when Transient Absorption Spectroscopy was used. In addition, terbuthylazine decreased menaquinone reduction to menaquinol by ~72%, slightly more than the reported effect of teburtryn (68%)1. In addition, terbuthylazine significantly impacted growth of whole cells under high light more than terbutryn.
ContributorsOdeh, Ahmad Osameh (Author) / Redding, Kevin (Thesis director) / Woodbury, Neal (Committee member) / Allen, James (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Background
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
ContributorsMoreno Martinez, Victor (Author) / Espinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author) / Barley, Kamal (Author) / Paredes Gutierrez, Marlio (Author) / Bichara, Derdei (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2017-01-11
Description
In response to a national call within STEM to increase diversity within the sciences, there has been a growth in science education research aimed at increasing participation of underrepresented groups in science, such as women and ethnic/racial minorities. However, an underexplored underrepresented group in science are religious students. Though 82% of the United States population is religiously affiliated, only 52% of scientists are religious (Pew, 2009). Even further, only 32% of biologists are religious, with 25% identifying as Christian (Pew, 2009; Ecklund, 2007). One reason as to why Christian individuals are underrepresented in biology is because faculty may express biases that affect students' ability to persist in the field of biology. In this study, we explored how revealing a Christian student's religious identity on science graduate application would impact faculty's perception of the student during the biology graduate application process. We found that faculty were significantly more likely to perceive the student who revealed their religious identity to be less competent, hirable, likeable, and faculty would be less likely to mentor the student. Our study informs upon possible reasons as to why there is an underrepresentation of Christians in science. This further suggests that bias against Christians must be addressed in order to avoid real-world, negative treatment of Christians in science.
ContributorsTruong, Jasmine Maylee (Author) / Brownell, Sara (Thesis director) / Gaughan, Monica (Committee member) / Barnes, Liz (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05