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Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
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Next, the nonstructural protein μNS of avian reoviruses was investigated using in vivo crystallization and serial femtosecond X-ray crystallography. Avian reoviruses infect poultry flocks causing significant economic losses. μNS is crucial in viral factory formation facilitating viral replication within host cells. Thus, structure-based targeting of μNS has the potential to disrupt intracellular viral propagation. Towards this goal, crystals of EGFP-tagged μNS (EGFP-μNS (448-605)) were produced in insect cells. The crystals diffracted to 4.5 Å at X-ray free electron lasers using viscous jets as crystal delivery methods and initial electron density maps were obtained. The resolution reported here is the highest described to date for μNS, which lays the foundation towards its structure determination.
Finally, structural, and functional studies of human Threonine aspartase 1 (Taspase1) were performed. Taspase1 is overexpressed in many liquid and solid malignancies. In the present study, using strategic circular permutations and X-ray crystallography, structure of catalytically active Taspase1 was resolved. The structure reveals the conformation of a 50 residues long fragment preceding the active side residue (Thr234), which has not been structurally characterized previously. This fragment adopted a straight helical conformation in contrast to previous predictions. Functional studies revealed that the long helix is essential for proteolytic activity in addition to the active site nucleophilic residue (Thr234) mediated proteolysis. Together, these findings enable a new approach for designing anti-cancer drugs by targeting the long helical fragment.
We present results from experiments at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) demonstrating that serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) can be performed to high resolution (~2.5 Å) using protein microcrystals deposited on an ultra-thin silicon nitride membrane and embedded in a preservation medium at room temperature. Data can be acquired at a high acquisition rate using x-ray free electron laser sources to overcome radiation damage, while sample consumption is dramatically reduced compared to flowing jet methods. We achieved a peak data acquisition rate of 10 Hz with a hit rate of ~38%, indicating that a complete data set could be acquired in about one 12-hour LCLS shift using the setup described here, or in even less time using hardware optimized for fixed target SFX. This demonstration opens the door to ultra low sample consumption SFX using the technique of diffraction-before-destruction on proteins that exist in only small quantities and/or do not produce the copious quantities of microcrystals required for flowing jet methods.