Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.
Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).
Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.
Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.
En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017, The Nature Conservancy, el Departamento de Salud Pública del condado de Maricopa, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, la Red de Investigación en Sostenibilidad sobre la Resiliencia Urbana a Eventos Extremos, el Centro de Investigación del Clima Urbano de Arizona State University y el Center for Whole Communities lanzaron un proceso participativo de planificación de acciones contra el calor para identificar tanto estrategias de mitigación como de adaptación a fin de reducir directamente el calor y mejorar la capacidad de los residentes para lidiar con el calor. Las organizaciones comunitarias con relaciones existentes en tres vecindarios seleccionados para la planificación de acciones contra el calor se unieron más tarde al equipo del proyecto: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa y Puente Movement. Más allá de construir un plan de acción comunitario contra el calor y completar proyectos de demostración, este proceso participativo fue diseñado para desarrollar conciencia, iniciativa y cohesión social en las comunidades subrepresentadas. Asimismo el proceso de planificación de acciones contra el calor fue diseñado para servir como modelo para esfuerzos futuros de resiliencia al calor y crear una visión local, contextual y culturalmente apropiada de un futuro más seguro y saludable. El método iterativo de planificación y participación utilizado por el equipo del proyecto fortaleció las relaciones dentro y entre los vecindarios, las organizaciones comunitarias, los responsables de la toma de decisiones y el equipo núcleo, y combinó la sabiduría de la narración de historias y la evidencia científica para comprender mejor los desafíos actuales y futuros que enfrentan los residentes durante eventos de calor extremo. Como resultado de tres talleres en cada comunidad, los residentes presentaron ideas que quieren ver implementadas para aumentar su comodidad y seguridad térmica durante los días de calor extremo.
Como se muestra a continuación, las ideas de los residentes se interceptaron en torno a conceptos similares, pero las soluciones específicas variaron entre los vecindarios. Por ejemplo, a todos los vecindarios les gustaría agregar sombra a sus corredores peatonales, pero variaron las preferencias para la ubicación de las mejoras para dar sombra. Algunos vecindarios priorizaron las rutas de transporte público, otros priorizaron las rutas utilizadas por los niños en su camino a la escuela y otros quieren paradas de descanso con sombra en lugares clave. Surgieron cuatro temas estratégicos generales en los tres vecindarios: promover y educar; mejorar la comodidad/capacidad de afrontamiento; mejorar la seguridad; fortalecer la capacidad. Estos temas señalan que existen serios desafíos de seguridad contra el calor en la vida diaria de los residentes y que la comunidad, los negocios y los sectores responsables de la toma de decisión deben abordar esos desafíos.
Los elementos del plan de acción contra el calor están diseñados para incorporarse a otros esfuerzos para aliviar el calor, crear ciudades resilientes al clima y brindar salud y seguridad pública. Los socios de implementación del plan de acción contra el calor provienen de la región de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, y se brindan recomendaciones para apoyar la transformación a una ciudad más fresca.
Para ampliar la escala de este enfoque, los miembros del equipo del proyecto recomiendan a) compromiso continuo e inversiones en estos vecindarios para implementar el cambio señalado como vital por los residentes, b) repetir el proceso de planificación de acción contra el calor con líderes comunitarios en otros vecindarios, y c) trabajar con las ciudades, los planificadores urbanos y otras partes interesadas para institucionalizar este proceso, apoyando las políticas y el uso de las métricas propuestas para crear comunidades más frescas.
Project Management for Youth from Low Income Single Parent Households concept and introduces a potential structure and path for its testing and implementation.
Full simulations originating in climate modeling have been the conventional approach to impacts assessment. But, once debatable climate projections are applied to hydrologic models challenged to accurately represent the region’s arid hydrology, the range of possible scenarios enlarges as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. Numerous issues render future projections frustratingly uncertain, leading many researchers to conclude it will be some decades before hydroclimatic modeling can provide specific and useful information to water management.
Alternatively, this research investigation inverts the standard approach to vulnerability assessment and begins with characterization of the threatened system, proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. Thorough statistical analysis of historical watershed climate and runoff enabled development of (a) a stochastic simulation methodology for net basin supply (NBS) that renders the entire range of droughts, and (b) hydrologic sensitivities to temperature and precipitation changes. An operations simulation model was developed for assessing the SRP reservoir system’s cumulative response to inflow variability and change. After analysis of the current system’s drought response, a set of climate change forecasts for the balance of this century were developed and translated through hydrologic sensitivities to drive alternative NBS time series assessed by reservoir operations modeling.
Statistically significant changes in key metrics were found for climate change forecasts, but the risk of reservoir depletion was found to remain zero. System outcomes fall within ranges to which water management is capable of responding. Actions taken to address natural variability are likely to be the same considered for climate change adaptation. This research approach provides specific risk assessments per unambiguous methods grounded in observational evidence in contrast to the uncertain projections thus far prepared for the region.
As the execution of facilities management becomes ever more sophisticated, specialized skill in managing specific types of buildings has become necessary. The sector of maintaining historic structures and sites readily falls into this type of specialized classification. This paper is a case study review of the unique “best practices” at the Nauvoo Historic Site located in Nauvoo, Illinois. It outlines a facilities management model of common core practices that was developed by the author following an assessment of various similar historic preservation campuses and their responsibilities to accurately display historic culture while observing modern-day facilities management techniques. Although these best practices are of great value in Nauvoo, they are proposed to be valuable to other sites as well because of their effectiveness. As a part of the description of best practices, an overview of the unique history of Nauvoo that generated the modern-day interest in the site will be reviewed. Additionally, the Nauvoo Facilities Management (NFM) organization will be detailed and will focus on the unique challenges associated with historic restored and reconstructed structures. Finally, the paper will also examine the use of specific facilities management techniques, management of large-scale visitor events, livestock supervision, workforce dynamics, finance and capital improvements, managing NFM within the corporate structure of a worldwide religious organization, and the part that NFM plays in community relations.
