This study used urban form/socio-economic data combined with self-reported on-road FFCO2 emissions for a sample of global cities to estimate relationships within a multivariate regression framework based on an adjusted STIRPAT model. The on-road high-resolution (whole-city) regression FFCO2 model robustness was evaluated by introducing artificial error, conducting cross-validation, and assessing relationship sensitivity under various model specifications. Results indicated that fuel economy, vehicle ownership, road density and population density were statistically significant factors that correlate with on-road FFCO2 emissions. Of these four variables, fuel economy and vehicle ownership had the most robust relationships.
A second regression model was constructed to examine the relationship between global on-road FFCO2 emissions and urban form factors (described by population
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density, road density, and distance to activity centers) at sub-city spatial scales (1 km2). Results showed that: 1) Road density is the most significant (p<2.66e-037) predictor of on-road FFCO2 emissions at the 1 km2 spatial scale; 2) The correlation between population density and on-road FFCO2 emissions for interstates/freeways varies little by city type. For arterials, on-road FFCO2 emissions show a stronger relationship to population density in clustered cities (slope = 0.24) than dispersed cities (slope = 0.13). FFCO2 3) The distance to activity centers has a significant positive relationship with on-road FFCO2 emission for the interstate and freeway toad types, but an insignificant relationship with the arterial road type.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.