Matching Items (125)
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
The purpose of this thesis is to compare ecolabeling to conservation easements for facilitating multi-use land between food production and conservation. Biodiversity has been on the decline as human agriculture uses more land. According to Encyclopedia Britannica “Half of the world’s habitable land (some 51 million square km [19.7 million square miles]) has been converted to agriculture, and some 77 percent of agricultural land (some 40 million square km [15.4 million square miles]) is used for grazing by cattle, sheep, goats, and other livestock. This massive conversion of forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other terrestrial ecosystems has produced a 60 percent decline (on average) in the number of vertebrates worldwide since 1970”(Rafferty 2010). The purpose of this paper is to explore ways individual landowners and private businesses can continue to operate profitably on their land while reversing the harmful loss to biodiversity observed in the past 50 years. Two of the most popular methods of achieving conservation on workable land are ecolabeling and conservation easements.
ContributorsWilcox, Christopher James (Author) / Leonard, Brian (Thesis director) / Schoon, Michael (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Lonsdaleite, also called hexagonal diamond, has been widely used as a marker of asteroidal impacts. It is thought to play a central role during the graphite-to-diamond transformation, and calculations suggest that it possesses mechanical properties superior to diamond. However, despite extensive efforts, lonsdaleite has never been produced or described as a separate, pure material. Here we show that defects in cubic diamond provide an explanation for the characteristic d-spacings and reflections reported for lonsdaleite. Ultrahigh-resolution electron microscope images demonstrate that samples displaying features attributed to lonsdaleite consist of cubic diamond dominated by extensive {113} twins and {111} stacking faults. These defects give rise to nanometre-scale structural complexity. Our findings question the existence of lonsdaleite and point to the need for re-evaluating the interpretations of many lonsdaleite-related fundamental and applied studies.
ContributorsNemeth, Peter (Author) / Garvie, Laurence (Author) / Aoki, Toshihiro (Author) / Dubrovinskaia, Natalia (Author) / Dubrovinsky, Leonid (Author) / Buseck, Peter (Author) / Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Earth and Space Exploration (Contributor) / Center for Meteorite Studies (Contributor) / Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor) / LeRoy Eyring Center for Solid State Science (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-11-01
Description
The issue of wild horse management in the American West has become prevalent in the media recently and management strategies are often criticized and opposed by the public. Horses have been a core feature of American history and culture nearly since the colonization of the western frontier, and popular media such as television and movies paint a romantic but often unrealistic picture of wild horses. Land management agencies must balance limited resources with an ever-growing wild horse population in order to properly manage public land so that it retains its ecological integrity and is still able to be used by multiple stakeholders, and they also must endure public criticism throughout the process. I used a photo elicitation survey to gather responses to photographic images of wild horses and determine how the public feels about wild horse management, given that horses are seen as a symbol of freedom and the American West. It was revealed that people who are unfamiliar with the issue still have opinions about how the horses should be managed, and these opinions often mirror what can be found in popular media.
ContributorsDuran, Kiana Alexis (Author) / Minteer, Ben (Thesis director) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Murphree, Julie (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
As human populations continue to expand, interactions with wildlife are expected to increase due to destruction of land and global climate change threatening native habitats. Established areas of protection are becoming essential to species survival and biodiversity protection. National Parks (NP) are a globally ubiquitous method employed to protect wildlife and habitats. Often NPs are mosaics of relatively small protected areas in a “sea” of human-dominated landscapes, and these remaining habitat “islands” are becoming essential to preventing species extinction. However, the establishment of a NP can lead to increased human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) and disenfranchisement of local communities, particularly along their borders. We conducted semi-structured interviews in six different countries to better understand the nature of HWCs at the borders of major NPs: (1) Khao Yai NP, Thailand; (2) Myall Lakes NP, Australia; (3) Chitwan NP, Nepal; (4) Kruger NP, South Africa; (5) Chingaza NP, Colombia, and (6) Yellowstone NP, United States. We evaluated affinity to wildlife, perception of conflicts, management success, and potential solutions at each park to better understand the global nature of HWCs.We also evaluated these data in relationship to the Human Development Index (HDI) to determine if there was a correlation between development and conflict issues. We found the intrinsic value of wildlife to not markedly differ between countries. Conflict was perceived as higher in the United States and Australia but was known to be of greater intensity in Nepal and South Africa. Management of NPs was well-regarded with a slight decrease from less-developed countries to more-developed countries, with solutions that were creative and unique to each region. Results appeared to be related to shifting baselines between countries and also to equivalency in a cross-cultural assessment. When these theories are taken into account, the complexity of HWCs globally is better understood. As our world continues to expand and NPs become some of the only contiguous native habitat and refuges for wildlife, it is important to understand the complex relationships occurring at the interface between natural and human communities and to explore effective solutions to these problems.
ContributorsRagan, Kinley Ann (Author) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Schipper, Jan (Committee member) / Senko, Jesse (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Human activities around the world are threatening scores of wildlife species, pushing them closer to extinction. In order to address what many conservationists view as a global biodiversity crisis, it is vital that more people are inspired to care about wild animals and motivated to act in ways that help protect them. The up-close experiences and personal connections that people form with wild animals in zoos accredited by the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA) or the World Association of Zoos and Aquariums (WAZA) can help achieve this. However, it is not very well understood how different types of encounters within these zoos may inspire conservation mindedness and pro-environmental behaviors. During this thesis project, surveys were conducted at the AZA-accredited Arizona Center for Nature Conservation/Phoenix Zoo to understand how interactive, hands-on animal experiences within zoos differ from passively viewing zoo animals when it comes to inspiring people to care about conservation. The Phoenix Zoo is home to two different species of giraffes, and guests can view them from the front of the Savanna Exhibit. Guests can also participate in the Giraffe Encounter, which is a much more interactive, hands-on experience. After surveying guests at both locations, the results showed that fewer people at the Giraffe Encounter responded that they often engage in pro-environmental behaviors. This may indicate that the people who participated in the Giraffe Encounter came to the zoo more for recreation and entertainment than to learn about wildlife. Despite this, more people learned something new about nature or conservation at the Giraffe Encounter than they did at the Savanna Exhibit. On average, guests also felt that the Giraffe Encounter motivated them to learn more about how to help animals in the wild than the Savanna Exhibit did. Overall, there is a strong correlation between having an interactive, hands-on experience with a zoo animal and caring more about wildlife conservation. However, more research still needs to be done in order to conclusively provide evidence for causation.
ContributorsBurgess, Christa Noell (Author) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Minteer, Ben (Committee member) / Allard, Ruth (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-12
Description
Background
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
ContributorsMoreno Martinez, Victor (Author) / Espinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author) / Barley, Kamal (Author) / Paredes Gutierrez, Marlio (Author) / Bichara, Derdei (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2017-01-11
Description
This paper covers the wild horse overpopulation case study at the Salt River in Arizona, exploring how Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) might help foster solutions to a lengthy and heated controversy about how to manage wild horses and burros on the rangeland. Fikret Berke's Sacred Ecology defines traditional ecological knowledge as, "a cumulative body of knowledge, practice, and belief evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationship of living beings (including humans) with one another and with their environment," (Berkes, 3). In contrast to current management strategies, TEK utilizes knowledge that comes from direct experience and intuitive knowing, rather than science-based, techno-rational streams of knowledge. Drawing on three modern sustainability concepts that support and stem from TEK, including: everything is connected, complex solutions can further complicate problems and diversity as a key to resilience, this paper sets forth a number of specific solutions to be considered moving forward, guided by the wisdom of TEK.
ContributorsLyford, Rebecca (Author) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Murphey, Julia (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Circles of Sustainability is a self-evaluation tool designed to build educator capacity in K-12 schools seeking sustainability solutions. Based on the Sustainable Schools Challenge Handbook from Memphis, Tennessee, Circles of Sustainability considers environmental impact and efficiency, a healthy and safe school environment, sustainability and environmental education, and engagement and empowerment as four key pillars of whole-school sustainability. Each pillar is composed of elements and rubric items, which are reviewed, totaled, and colored in on the front page of the tool to help educators visualize and evaluate the current state of sustainability at their school. Since its first iteration completed in May 2017, the tool has been used by 300 educators throughout the United States during ASU's Sustainability Teachers' Academy (STA) workshops. Circles of Sustainability is completed as part of an activity called "Evaluating Your Community," where educators complete the tool and then brainstorm sustainability projects and solutions for their school and community. This paper is a review and discussion of the research, informal feedback and formal feedback used to create the second iteration of the tool. A second iteration of the tool was created to make the tool more user-friendly and ensure each pillar, element, and rubric item are based in research. The informal feedback was conducted during STA workshops in Tempe, Arizona; Abingdon, Virginia; Princeton, New Jersey; Chicago, Illinois; Los Angeles, California; Tucson, Arizona; and Charlotte, North Carolina. The formal feedback was conducted using a survey distributed to teachers who participated in the Tucson and Charlotte workshops. Overall, educators have responded positively to the tool, and the second iteration will continue to be used in future STA workshops throughout the United States.
ContributorsColbert, Julia (Author) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Merritt, Eileen (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Division of Teacher Preparation (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The fence between the US and Mexico had been and continues to be a controversial topic in both the U.S., Mexico and around the world. This study will look at the negative externalities related to the environment, society, and economy of the current fence on the border. The central question behind the thesis is whether or not the fence has a direct impact on the ecosystem and people around it.
ContributorsHoyt, Stephanie Alexis (Author) / Schoon, Michael (Thesis director) / Breetz, Hanna (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12