Colorimetric assays are an important tool in point-of-care testing that offers several advantages to traditional testing methods such as rapid response times and inexpensive costs. A factor that currently limits the portability and accessibility of these assays are methods that can objectively determine the results of these assays. Current solutions consist of creating a test reader that standardizes the conditions the strip is under before being measured in some way. However, this increases the cost and decreases the portability of these assays. The focus of this study is to create a machine learning algorithm that can objectively determine results of colorimetric assays under varying conditions. To ensure the flexibility of a model to several types of colorimetric assays, three models were trained on the same convolutional neural network with different datasets. The images these models are trained on consist of positive and negative images of ETG, fentanyl, and HPV Antibodies test strips taken under different lighting and background conditions. A fourth model is trained on an image set composed of all three strip types. The results from these models show it is able to predict positive and negative results to a high level of accuracy.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.