Attitudes and habits are extremely resistant to change, but a disruption of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to bring long-term, massive societal changes. During the pandemic, people are being compelled to experience new ways of interacting, working, learning, shopping, traveling, and eating meals. Going forward, a critical question is whether these experiences will result in changed behaviors and preferences in the long term. This paper presents initial findings on the likelihood of long-term changes in telework, daily travel, restaurant patronage, and air travel based on survey data collected from adults in the United States in Spring 2020. These data suggest that a sizable fraction of the increase in telework and decreases in both business air travel and restaurant patronage are likely here to stay. As for daily travel modes, public transit may not fully recover its pre-pandemic ridership levels, but many of our respondents are planning to bike and walk more than they used to. These data reflect the responses of a sample that is higher income and more highly educated than the US population. The response of these particular groups to the COVID-19 pandemic is perhaps especially important to understand, however, because their consumption patterns give them a large influence on many sectors of the economy.

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017, The Nature Conservancy, el Departamento de Salud Pública del condado de Maricopa, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, la Red de Investigación en Sostenibilidad sobre la Resiliencia Urbana a Eventos Extremos, el Centro de Investigación del Clima Urbano de Arizona State University y el Center for Whole Communities lanzaron un proceso participativo de planificación de acciones contra el calor para identificar tanto estrategias de mitigación como de adaptación a fin de reducir directamente el calor y mejorar la capacidad de los residentes para lidiar con el calor. Las organizaciones comunitarias con relaciones existentes en tres vecindarios seleccionados para la planificación de acciones contra el calor se unieron más tarde al equipo del proyecto: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa y Puente Movement. Más allá de construir un plan de acción comunitario contra el calor y completar proyectos de demostración, este proceso participativo fue diseñado para desarrollar conciencia, iniciativa y cohesión social en las comunidades subrepresentadas. Asimismo el proceso de planificación de acciones contra el calor fue diseñado para servir como modelo para esfuerzos futuros de resiliencia al calor y crear una visión local, contextual y culturalmente apropiada de un futuro más seguro y saludable. El método iterativo de planificación y participación utilizado por el equipo del proyecto fortaleció las relaciones dentro y entre los vecindarios, las organizaciones comunitarias, los responsables de la toma de decisiones y el equipo núcleo, y combinó la sabiduría de la narración de historias y la evidencia científica para comprender mejor los desafíos actuales y futuros que enfrentan los residentes durante eventos de calor extremo. Como resultado de tres talleres en cada comunidad, los residentes presentaron ideas que quieren ver implementadas para aumentar su comodidad y seguridad térmica durante los días de calor extremo.

Como se muestra a continuación, las ideas de los residentes se interceptaron en torno a conceptos similares, pero las soluciones específicas variaron entre los vecindarios. Por ejemplo, a todos los vecindarios les gustaría agregar sombra a sus corredores peatonales, pero variaron las preferencias para la ubicación de las mejoras para dar sombra. Algunos vecindarios priorizaron las rutas de transporte público, otros priorizaron las rutas utilizadas por los niños en su camino a la escuela y otros quieren paradas de descanso con sombra en lugares clave. Surgieron cuatro temas estratégicos generales en los tres vecindarios: promover y educar; mejorar la comodidad/capacidad de afrontamiento; mejorar la seguridad; fortalecer la capacidad. Estos temas señalan que existen serios desafíos de seguridad contra el calor en la vida diaria de los residentes y que la comunidad, los negocios y los sectores responsables de la toma de decisión deben abordar esos desafíos.

Los elementos del plan de acción contra el calor están diseñados para incorporarse a otros esfuerzos para aliviar el calor, crear ciudades resilientes al clima y brindar salud y seguridad pública. Los socios de implementación del plan de acción contra el calor provienen de la región de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, y se brindan recomendaciones para apoyar la transformación a una ciudad más fresca.

Para ampliar la escala de este enfoque, los miembros del equipo del proyecto recomiendan a) compromiso continuo e inversiones en estos vecindarios para implementar el cambio señalado como vital por los residentes, b) repetir el proceso de planificación de acción contra el calor con líderes comunitarios en otros vecindarios, y c) trabajar con las ciudades, los planificadores urbanos y otras partes interesadas para institucionalizar este proceso, apoyando las políticas y el uso de las métricas propuestas para crear comunidades más frescas.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more people die in the U.S. from heat than from all other natural disasters combined. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), more than 1,300 deaths per year in the United States are due to extreme heat. Arizona, California and Texas are the three states with the highest burden, accounting for 43% of all heat-related deaths according to the CDC.

Although only 5% of housing in Maricopa County, Arizona, is mobile homes, approximately 30% of indoor heat-related deaths occur in these homes. Thus, the residents of mobile homes in Maricopa County are disproportionately affected by heat. Mobile home residents are extremely exposed to heat due to the high density of mobile home parks, poor construction of dwellings, lack of vegetation, socio-demographic features and not being eligible to get utility and financial assistance.

We researched numerous solutions across different domains that could help build the heat resilience of mobile home residents. As a result we found 50 different solutions for diverse stakeholders, budgets and available resources. The goal of this toolbox is to present these solutions and to explain how to apply them in order to get the most optimal result and build About this Solutions Guide People who live in mobile homes are 6 to 8 times more likely to die of heat-associated deaths. heat resilience for mobile home residents. These solutions were designed as a coordinated set of actions for everyone — individual households, mobile home residents, mobile home park owners, cities and counties, private businesses and nonprofits serving mobile home parks, and other stakeholders — to be able to contribute to heat mitigation for mobile home residents.

When we invest in a collective, coordinated suite of solutions that are designed specifically to address the heat vulnerability of mobile homes residents, we can realize a resilience dividend in maintaining affordable, feasible, liveable housing for the 20 million Americans who choose mobile homes and manufactured housing as their place to live and thrive.

BACKGROUND: The City of Phoenix initiated the HeatReady program in 2018 to prepare for extreme heat, as there was no official tool, framework, or mechanism at the city level to manage extreme heat. The current landscape of heat safety culture in schools, which are critical community hubs, has received less illumination. HeatReady Schools—a critical component of a HeatReady City—are those that are increasingly able to identify, prepare for, mitigate, track, and respond to the negative impacts of schoolgrounds heat. However, minimal attention has been given to formalize heat preparedness in schools to mitigate high temperatures and health concerns in schoolchildren, a heat-vulnerable population. This study set out to understand heat perceptions, (re)actions, and recommendations of key stakeholders and to identify critical themes around heat readiness. METHODS: An exploratory sequential mixed-methods case study approach was used. These methods focused on acquiring new insight on heat perceptions at elementary schools through semi-structured interviews using thematic analysis and the Delphi panel. Participants included public health professionals and school community members at two elementary schools—one public charter, one public—in South Phoenix, Arizona, a region that has been burdened historically with inequitable distribution of heat resources due to environmental racism and injustices. RESULTS: Findings demonstrated that 1) current heat safety resources are available but not fully utilized within the school sites, 2) expert opinions support that extreme heat readiness plans must account for site-specific needs, particularly education as a first step, and 3) students are negatively impacted by the effects of extreme heat, whether direct or indirect, both inside and outside the classroom. CONCLUSIONS: From key informant interviews and a Delphi panel, a list of 30 final recommendations were developed as important actions to be taken to become “HeatReady.” Future work will apply these recommendations in a HeatReady School Growth Tool that schools can tailor be to their individual needs to improve heat safety and protection measures at schools.

Many coastal cities around the world are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly flooding driven by tropical storm and hurricane storm surge – typically the most destructive feature of these storms, generating significant economic damage and loss of life. This increase in vulnerability is driven by the interactions between a wide number of complex social and climatic factors, including population growth, irresponsible urban development, a decrease in essential service provision, sea level rise, and changing storm regimes. These issues are exacerbated by the short-term strategic planning that dominates political action and economic decision-making, resulting in many vulnerable coastal communities being particularly unprepared for large, infrequent storm surge events. This lack of preparedness manifests in several ways, but one of the most visible is the lack of comprehensive evacuation and rescue operation plans for use after major storm surge flooding occurs. Typical evacuation or rescue plans are built using a model of a region’s intact road network. While useful for pre-disaster purposes, the immediate aftermath of large floods sees enormous swaths of a given region’s road system flooded, rendering most of these plans largely useless. Post-storm evacuation and rescue requires large amounts of atypical travel through a region (i.e., across non-road surfaces). Traditional road network models (such as those that are used to generate evacuation routes) are unable to conceptualize this type of transportation, and so are of limited utility during post-disaster scenarios. To solve these problems, this dissertation introduces an alternative network conceptualization that preserves important on-network information but also accounts for the possibility of off-network travel during a disaster. Providing this in situ context is necessary to adequately model transportation through a post-storm landscape, one in which evacuees and rescuers are regularly departing from roads and one in which many roads are completely interdicted by flooding. This modeling approach is used to automatically generate routes through a flooded coastal urban area, as well as to identify potentially critical road segments in advance of an actual storm. These tools may help both emergency managers better prepare for large storms, and urban planners in their efforts to mitigate flood damage.

Environmental heat is a growing concern in cities as a consequence of rapid urbanization and climate change, threatening human health and urban vitality. The transportation system is naturally embedded in the issue of urban heat and human heat exposure. Research has established how heat poses a threat to urban inhabitants and how urban infrastructure design can lead to increased urban heat. Yet there are gaps in understanding how urban communities accumulate heat exposure, and how significantly the urban transportation system influences or exacerbates the many issues of urban heat. This dissertation focuses on advancing the understanding of how modern urban transportation influences urban heat and human heat exposure through three research objectives: 1) Investigate how human activity results in different outdoor heat exposure; 2) Quantify the growth and extent of urban parking infrastructure; and 3) Model and analyze how pavements and vehicles contribute to urban heat.

In the urban US, traveling outdoors (e.g. biking or walking) is the most frequent activity to cause heat exposure during hot periods. However, outdoor travel durations are often very short, and other longer activities such as outdoor housework and recreation contribute more to cumulative urban heat exposure. In Phoenix, parking and roadway pavement infrastructure contributes significantly to the urban heat balance, especially during summer afternoons, and vehicles only contribute significantly in local areas with high density rush hour vehicle travel. Future development of urban areas (especially those with concerns of extreme heat) should focus on ensuring access and mobility for its inhabitants without sacrificing thermal comfort. This may require urban redesign of transportation systems to be less auto-centric, but without clear pathways to mitigating impacts of urban heat, it may be difficult to promote transitions to travel modes that inherently necessitate heat exposure. Transportation planners and engineers need to be cognizant of the pathways to increased urban heat and human heat exposure when planning and designing urban transportation systems.

This study investigated the effect of environmental heat stress on physiological and performance measures during a ~4 mi time trial (TT) mountain hike in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Participants (n = 12; 7M/5F; age 21.6 ± 2.47 [SD]) climbed ‘A’ mountain (~1 mi) four times on a hot day (HOT; wet bulb globe temperature [WBGT] = 31.6°C) and again on a moderate day (MOD; WBGT = 19.0°C). Physiological and performance measures were made before and throughout the course of each hike. Mean pre-hike hydration status (urine specific gravity [USG]) indicated that participants began both HOT and MOD trials in a euhydrated state (1.016 ± 0.010 and 1.010 ± 0.008, respectively) and means did not differ significantly between trials (p = .085). Time trial performance was impaired by -11% (11.1 minutes) in the HOT trial (105 ± 21.7 min), compared to MOD (93.9 ± 13.1 min) (p = .013). Peak core temperatures were significantly higher in HOT (38.5 ± 0.36°C) versus MOD (38.0 ± 0.30°C) with progressively increasing differences between trials over time (p < .001). Peak ratings of perceived exertion were significantly higher in HOT (14.2 ± 2.38) compared to MOD (11.9 ± 2.02) (p = .007). Relative intensity (percent of age-predicted maximal heart rate [HR]), estimated absolute intensity (metabolic equivalents [METs]), and estimated energy expenditure (MET-h) were all increased in HOT, but not significantly so. The HOT condition reduced predicted maximal aerobic capacity (CRFp) by 6% (p = .026). Sweat rates differed significantly between HOT (1.38 ± 0.53 L/h) and MOD (0.84 ± 0.27 L/h) (p = .01). Percent body mass loss (PBML) did not differ significantly between HOT (1.06 ± 0.95%) and MOD (0.98 ± 0.84%) (p = .869). All repeated measures variables showed significant between-subjects effects (p < .05), indicating individual differences in response to test conditions. Heat stress was shown to negatively affect physiological and performance measures in recreational mountain hikers. However, considerable variation exists between individuals, and the degree of physiological and performance impairment is probably due, in part, to differences in aerobic fitness and acclimatization status rather than pre- or during-performance hydration status.

The Maricopa County Heat Relief Network (HRN) is an ad-hoc partially self-organized network with some attributes of hierarchical coordination that forms each year to provide heat relief and hydration to residents in need by operating as cooling centers. These HRN organizations are a collection of non-profit, governmental and religious organizations. This dissertation looks at the HRN from a complexity governance perspective and engaged different parts of the network in interviews to learn more about their perspective in delivering heat relief. Further, participatory modeling with a prototype agent based model was done with the HRN coordinating agencies to look for emergent outcomes in the HRN system and learn from their perspective. Chapter one evaluates organizational theory and complexity with climate adaptation, hazard preparedness and resilience in the HRN. Chapter two presents results from interviews with HRN facility managers and evaluates their perspective on how they function to offer heat relief. Chapter three finds that the HRN is a good example of complexity governance when engaged through a participatory agent based modeling approach. Chapter four engages the HRN coordinators in participatory agent based modeling interviews to increase their systems level awareness, learn about their perspective on heat relief delivery, and how the system can be improved. Chapter five looks across the different levels of the HRN investigated, the facility managers and coordinators, for differences and similarities in perspectives. The research conducted in this dissertation shows different levels of systems awareness of the different parts of the HRN and how participatory modeling can be used to increase systems awareness. Results indicate that there was very little horizontal network connection between HRN facility managers and most of the interaction was vertically coordinated indicating opportunities for increased network communication in the future both horizontally and vertically if communication interventions were put in place.