In this synthesis, we hope to accomplish two things: 1) reflect on how the analysis of the new archaeological cases presented in this special feature adds to previous case studies by revisiting a set of propositions reported in a 2006 special feature, and 2) reflect on four main ideas that are more specific to the archaeological cases: i) societal choices are influenced by robustness–vulnerability trade-offs, ii) there is interplay between robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and robustness–performance trade-offs, iii) societies often get locked in to particular strategies, and iv) multiple positive feedbacks escalate the perceived cost of societal change. We then discuss whether these lock-in traps can be prevented or whether the risks associated with them can be mitigated. We conclude by highlighting how these long-term historical studies can help us to understand current society, societal practices, and the nexus between ecology and society.
What relationships can be understood between resilience and vulnerability in social-ecological systems? In particular, what vulnerabilities are exacerbated or ameliorated by different sets of social practices associated with water management? These questions have been examined primarily through the study of contemporary or recent historic cases. Archaeology extends scientific observation beyond all social memory and can thus illuminate interactions occurring over centuries or millennia. We examined trade-offs of resilience and vulnerability in the changing social, technological, and environmental contexts of three long-term, pre-Hispanic sequences in the U.S. Southwest: the Mimbres area in southwestern New Mexico (AD 650–1450), the Zuni area in northern New Mexico (AD 850–1540), and the Hohokam area in central Arizona (AD 700–1450). In all three arid landscapes, people relied on agricultural systems that depended on physical and social infrastructure that diverted adequate water to agricultural soils. However, investments in infrastructure varied across the cases, as did local environmental conditions. Zuni farming employed a variety of small-scale water control strategies, including centuries of reliance on small runoff agricultural systems; Mimbres fields were primarily watered by small-scale canals feeding floodplain fields; and the Hohokam area had the largest canal system in pre-Hispanic North America. The cases also vary in their historical trajectories: at Zuni, population and resource use remained comparatively stable over centuries, extending into the historic period; in the Mimbres and Hohokam areas, there were major demographic and environmental transformations. Comparisons across these cases thus allow an understanding of factors that promote vulnerability and influence resilience in specific contexts.
Using satellite telemetry and remote sensing, I investigated three aspects of the Asian Great Bustard’s ecology critical to its conservation: migratory routes, migratory cues, and habitat use patterns. I found that Asian Great Bustards spent one-third of the year on a 2000 km migratory pathway, a distance twice as far as has previously been recorded for the species. Tracked individuals moved nomadically over large winter territories and did not repeat migratory stopovers, complicating conservation planning. Migratory timing was variable and migratory movements were significantly correlated with weather cues. Specifically, bustards migrated on days when wind support was favorable and temperature presaged warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds (spring) or advancing winter weather (fall). On the breeding grounds, Asian Great Bustards used both steppe and wheat agriculture habitat. All recorded reproductive attempts failed, regardless of habitat in which the nest was placed. Agricultural practices are likely to intensify in the coming decade, which would present further challenges to reproduction. The distinct migratory behavior and habitat use patterns of the Asian Great Bustard are likely adaptations to the climate and ecology of Inner Asia and underscore the importance of conserving these unique populations.
My research indicates that conservation of the Asian Great Bustard will require a landscape-level approach. This approach should incorporate measures at the breeding grounds to raise reproductive success, alongside actions on the migratory pathway to ensure appropriate habitat and reduce adult mortality. To secure international cooperation, I proposed that an increased level of protection should be directed toward the Great Bustard under the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS). That proposal, accepted by the Eleventh Conference of Parties to CMS, provides recommendations for conservation action and illustrates the transdisciplinary approach I have taken in this research.