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Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Much is still unknown about dominance hierarchies. Many different species form dominance hierarchies and each species have very different ways of forming these hierarchies. Some engage in various different dominance interactions to establish a dominant position. This experiment aims to use the ant species, Harpegnathos saltator, as a model to explore what sets dominant individuals, or gamergates in this case, apart from non-dominant individuals, or non-gamergates. H. saltator ants perform various different behaviors such as dueling, which is a mutually beneficial behavior, dominance biting, which is an aggressive behavior, and policing which is used to bring down those who are dominant. These behaviors can be used to study the importance of initiation and aggression in hierarchy formation. This experiment will explore how aggression through dominance biting, duel initiation, group size, and time period affect the formation of gamergates. To do so, socially unstable colonies of 15, 30, and 60 ants were video recorded for days until gamergates were established. Then, from the recordings, a period of high activity was selected and observed for dueling, duel initiation, dominance biting, dominance bite downs, and policing. The results showed that gamergates tended to perform dominance biting and dominance bite downs far more than non-gamergates during the period of high activity, but not as clearly with duelling and duel initiations. It was inconclusive whether or not the combination of both dueling and dominance biting was what set gamergates apart from non gamergates as different groups showed different results. Gamergates performed visibly more dominance bite downs than non-gamergates, so aggression may be important in setting gamergates apart from non-gamergates. In terms of group size, the smallest group had the least number of gamergates and the least activity, and the medium and large group had a similar number of gamergates and activity.
Olfactory discrimination tasks can provide useful information about how olfaction may have evolved by demonstrating which types of compounds animals will detect and respond to. Ants discriminate between nestmates and non-nestmates by using olfaction to detect the cuticular hydrocarbons on other ants, and Camponotus floridanus have particularly clear and aggressive responses to non-nestmates. A new method of adding hydrocarbons to ants, the “Snow Globe” method was further optimized and tested on C. floridanus. It involves adding hydrocarbons and a solvent to a vial of water, vortexing it, suspending hydrocarbon droplets throughout the solution, and then dipping a narcotized ant in. It is hoped this method can evenly coat ants in hydrocarbon. Ants were treated with heptacosane (C27), nonacosane (C29), hentriacontane (C31), a mixture of C27/C29/C31, 2-methyltriacontane (2MeC30), S-3-methylhentriacontane (SMeC31), and R-3-methylhentriacontane (RMeC31). These were chosen to see how ants reacted in a nestmate recognition context to methyl-branched hydrocarbons, R and S enantiomers, and to multiple added alkanes. Behavior assays were performed on treated ants, as well as two untreated controls, a foreign ant and a nestmate ant. There were 15 replicates of each condition, using 15 different queenright colonies. The Snow Globe method successfully transfers hydrocarbons, as confirmed by solid phase microextraction (SPME) done on treated ants, and the behavior assay data shows the foreign control, SMeC31, and the mixture of C27/29/31 were all statistically significant in their differences from the native control. The multiple alkane mixture received a significant response while single alkanes did not, which supports the idea that larger variations in hydrocarbon profile are needed for an ant to be perceived as foreign. The response to SMeC31 shows C. floridanus can respond during nestmate recognition to hydrocarbons that are not naturally occurring, and it indicates the nestmate recognition process may simply be responding to any compounds not found in the colony profile and rather than detecting particular foreign compounds.