A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO₂) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO₂ fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data.

The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m^-2 yr^-2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO₂ sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO₂ sink strength.

The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO₂ exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.

Soil temperature (T_s) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of T_s determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T_s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of T_s in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of T_s trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr^-1. Most models show smaller increase in T_s with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub>a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of T_s trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in T_s trends, while trends of T_a only explain 5 % of the differences in T_s trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in T_s trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr^-1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr^-1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of T_s at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T_s at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km²°C^-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and T_s across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14  ×  10³ and 75 ± 14  ×  10³km²yr^-1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

We present a novel paradigm to identify shared and unique brain regions underlying non-semantic, non-phonological, abstract, audio-visual (AV) memory vs. naming using a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Participants were trained to associate novel AV stimulus pairs containing hidden linguistic content. Half of the stimulus pairs were distorted images of animals and sine-wave speech versions of the animal's name. Images and sounds were distorted in such a way as to make their linguistic content easily recognizable only after being made aware of its existence. Memory for the pairings was tested by presenting an AV pair and asking participants to verify if the two stimuli formed a learned pairing. After memory testing, the hidden linguistic content was revealed and participants were tested again on their recollection of the pairings in this linguistically informed state. Once informed, the AV verification task could be performed by naming the picture. There was substantial overlap between the regions involved in recognition of non-linguistic sensory memory and naming, suggesting a strong relation between them. Contrasts between sessions identified left angular gyrus and middle temporal gyrus as key additional players in the naming network. Left inferior frontal regions participated in both naming and non-linguistic AV memory suggesting the region is responsible for AV memory independent of phonological content contrary to previous proposals. Functional connectivity between angular gyrus and left inferior frontal gyrus and left middle temporal gyrus increased when performing the AV task as naming. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that, at the spatial resolution of fMRI, the regions that facilitate non-linguistic AV associations are a subset of those that facilitate naming though reorganized into distinct networks.

The number and variety of connectivity estimation methods is likely to continue to grow over the coming decade. Comparisons between methods are necessary to prune this growth to only the most accurate and robust methods. However, the nature of connectivity is elusive with different methods potentially attempting to identify different aspects of connectivity. Commonalities of connectivity definitions across methods upon which base direct comparisons can be difficult to derive. Here, we explicitly define “effective connectivity” using a common set of observation and state equations that are appropriate for three connectivity methods: dynamic causal modeling (DCM), multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR), and switching linear dynamic systems for fMRI (sLDSf). In addition while deriving this set, we show how many other popular functional and effective connectivity methods are actually simplifications of these equations. We discuss implications of these connections for the practice of using one method to simulate data for another method. After mathematically connecting the three effective connectivity methods, simulated fMRI data with varying numbers of regions and task conditions is generated from the common equation. This simulated data explicitly contains the type of the connectivity that the three models were intended to identify. Each method is applied to the simulated data sets and the accuracy of parameter identification is analyzed. All methods perform above chance levels at identifying correct connectivity parameters. The sLDSf method was superior in parameter estimation accuracy to both DCM and MAR for all types of comparisons.

A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20  cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °^C-1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million  km²). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

Cerebral small-vessel damage manifests as white matter hyperintensities and cerebral atrophy on brain MRI and is associated with aging, cognitive decline and dementia. We sought to examine the interrelationship of these imaging biomarkers and the influence of hypertension in older individuals. We used a multivariate spatial covariance neuroimaging technique to localize the effects of white matter lesion load on regional gray matter volume and assessed the role of blood pressure control, age and education on this relationship. Using a case-control design matching for age, gender, and educational attainment we selected 64 participants with normal blood pressure, controlled hypertension or uncontrolled hypertension from the Northern Manhattan Study cohort. We applied gray matter voxel-based morphometry with the scaled subprofile model to (1) identify regional covariance patterns of gray matter volume differences associated with white matter lesion load, (2) compare this relationship across blood pressure groups, and (3) relate it to cognitive performance. In this group of participants aged 60–86 years, we identified a pattern of reduced gray matter volume associated with white matter lesion load in bilateral temporal-parietal regions with relative preservation of volume in the basal forebrain, thalami and cingulate cortex. This pattern was expressed most in the uncontrolled hypertension group and least in the normotensives, but was also more evident in older and more educated individuals. Expression of this pattern was associated with worse performance in executive function and memory. In summary, white matter lesions from small-vessel disease are associated with a regional pattern of gray matter atrophy that is mitigated by blood pressure control, exacerbated by aging, and associated with cognitive performance.

Honey bees as other insects rely on the innate immune system for protection against diseases. The innate immune system includes the circulating hemocytes (immune cells) that clear pathogens from hemolymph (blood) by phagocytosis, nodulation or encapsulation. Honey bee hemocyte numbers have been linked to hemolymph levels of vitellogenin. Vitellogenin is a multifunctional protein with immune-supportive functions identified in a range of species, including the honey bee. Hemocyte numbers can increase via mitosis, and this recruitment process can be important for immune system function and maintenance. Here, we tested if hemocyte mediated phagocytosis differs among the physiologically different honey bee worker castes (nurses, foragers and winter bees), and study possible interactions with vitellogenin and hemocyte recruitment. To this end, we adapted phagocytosis assays, which—together with confocal microscopy and flow cytometry—allow qualitative and quantitative assessment of hemocyte performance. We found that nurses are more efficient in phagocytic uptake than both foragers and winter bees. We detected vitellogenin within the hemocytes, and found that winter bees have the highest numbers of vitellogenin-positive hemocytes. Connections between phagocytosis, hemocyte-vitellogenin and mitosis were worker caste dependent. Our results demonstrate that the phagocytic performance of immune cells differs significantly between honey bee worker castes, and support increased immune competence in nurses as compared to forager bees. Our data, moreover, provides support for roles of vitellogenin in hemocyte activity.

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide a system for studying social and food-related behavior. A caste of workers performs age-related tasks: young bees (nurses) usually feed the brood and other adult bees inside the nest, while older bees (foragers) forage outside for pollen, a protein/lipid source, or nectar, a carbohydrate source. The workers' transition from nursing to foraging and their foraging preferences correlate with differences in gustatory perception, metabolic gene expression, and endocrine physiology including the endocrine factors vitellogenin (Vg) and juvenile hormone (JH). However, the understanding of connections among social behavior, energy metabolism, and endocrine factors is incomplete. We used RNA interference (RNAi) to perturb the gene network of Vg and JH to learn more about these connections through effects on gustation, gene transcripts, and physiology. The RNAi perturbation was achieved by single and double knockdown of the genes ultraspiracle (usp) and vg, which encode a putative JH receptor and Vg, respectively. The double knockdown enhanced gustatory perception and elevated hemolymph glucose, trehalose, and JH. We also observed transcriptional responses in insulin like peptide 1 (ilp1), the adipokinetic hormone receptor (AKHR), and cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG, or “foraging gene” Amfor). Our study demonstrates that the Vg–JH regulatory module controls changes in carbohydrate metabolism, but not lipid metabolism, when worker bees shift from nursing to foraging. The module is also placed upstream of ilp1, AKHR, and PKG for the first time. As insulin, adipokinetic hormone (AKH), and PKG pathways influence metabolism and gustation in many animals, we propose that honey bees have conserved pathways in carbohydrate metabolism and conserved connections between energy metabolism and gustatory perception. Thus, perhaps the bee can make general contributions to the understanding of food-related behavior and metabolic disorders.

The utility of plasma amyloid beta (Aβ) and tau levels for the clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia has been controversial. The main objective of this study was to compare Aβ42 and tau levels measured by the ultra-sensitive immunomagnetic reduction (IMR) assays in plasma samples collected at the Banner Sun Health Institute (BSHRI) (United States) with those from the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) (Taiwan). Significant increase in tau levels were detected in AD subjects from both cohorts, while Aβ42 levels were increased only in the NTUH cohort. A regression model incorporating age showed that tau levels identified probable ADs with 81 and 96% accuracy in the BSHRI and NTUH cohorts, respectively, while computed products of Aβ42 and tau increased the accuracy to 84% in the BSHRI cohorts. Using 382.68 (pg/ml)² as the cut-off value, the product achieved 92% accuracy in identifying AD in the combined cohorts. Overall findings support that plasma Aβ42 and tau assayed by IMR technology can be used to assist in the clinical diagnosis of AD.

Evolutionary games model a common type of interactions in a variety of complex, networked, natural systems and social systems. Given such a system, uncovering the interacting structure of the underlying network is key to understanding its collective dynamics. Based on compressive sensing, we develop an efficient approach to reconstructing complex networks under game-based interactions from small amounts of data. The method is validated by using a variety of model networks and by conducting an actual experiment to reconstruct a social network. While most existing methods in this area assume oscillator networks that generate continuous-time data, our work successfully demonstrates that the extremely challenging problem of reverse engineering of complex networks can also be addressed even when the underlying dynamical processes are governed by realistic, evolutionary-game type of interactions in discrete time.