Matching Items (322)
Description
Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer–resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer–resource type system of a population of individuals classified by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are affected by particularly devastating overly adapted populations, namely cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.
ContributorsKareva, Irina (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-02-01
Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
This survey was used to identify the concerns of the public. There are many population techniques that the public feels are harmful to the behavior and nature of the horses. This research defined the different techniques and history of the situation to then analyze the public's opinion of the topic. The survey was trying to determine if any of the techniques could be accepted by the public to control the population of the horses that won’t put the forest, other species, and the herds themselves in danger of possible overpopulation effects.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
ContributorsPadayachee, Brittany (Co-author) / Hoover, Sierra (Co-author) / Roen, Duane (Thesis director) / Murphree, Julie (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
This survey was used to identify the concerns of the public. There are many population techniques that the public feels are harmful to the behavior and nature of the horses. This research defined the different techniques and history of the situation to then analyze the public's opinion of the topic. The survey was trying to determine if any of the techniques could be accepted by the public to control the population of the horses that won’t put the forest, other species, and the herds themselves in danger of possible overpopulation effects.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
ContributorsHoover, Sierra Nicole (Co-author) / Padayachee, Brittany (Co-author) / Roen, Duane (Thesis director) / Murphree, Julie (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
The purpose of this project was to create a workshop for adults without dance experience to immerse them in dance as a form of therapy. The goals of this workshop are to foster physical awareness and physical creativity. There are four main areas the participants would get experience in from this workshop including self-care/awareness, expression, gesture and choreography. These four areas are the ways that the two main goals manifest themselves. For this project I reviewed research by many different professionals from the therapy, psychology, self-care, dance, and dance therapy fields. Their studies as well as my own experience aided in putting together my themes for the workshop and class activities. I include my methodology, lesson plans, a workbook, and my reflection on the process.
ContributorsWilson, Deepika (Author) / Roses-Thema, Cynthia (Thesis director) / Giorgis, Cyndi (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a known factor to exacerbate cardiopulmonary diseases. We previously demonstrated that PM mediated endothelial injury and barrier disruption via modulation of the endothelial cytoskeleton and cell-cell junctions, while the effects of PM exposure on cell-cell communication and gap junction activity are still unknown. This study is focused on the characterization of PM-mediated endothelial dysfunction via Connexin 43 (Cx43), the most abundant Gap junction protein expressed in lung endothelial cells (ECs). PM exposure induces a time-dependent elevation of Cx43 in human lung ECs, at both mRNA and protein levels. N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC), an ROS scavenger, significantly suppresses PM-induced Cx43 expression. Membrane-associated and ER/ Golgi apparatus Cx43 protein are elevated upon PM challenge. In addition, PM also activates the gap junction activity, indicated by the transportation of green fluorescence dye between two adjacent ECs. Moreover, GAP27, a selective Cx43 channel inhibitor, attenuates PM-reduced human lung EC barrier disruption, measured by trans-endothelial electrical resistance (TER) with an electric cell-substrate impedance sensing system. Moreover, knock-down the expression of Cx43 by its selective siRNA alleviates PM-induced MLC phosphorylation. These results highly suggest that Cx43 plays a key role in PM-mediated endothelial barrier disruption and signal transduction. Cx43 may deputy as a therapeutic target in PM-mediated cardiopulmonary disorders.
ContributorsKheshtchin-Kamel, Nabia (Author) / Welcome, Natalie (Thesis director) / Wang, Ting (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
“Sam’s Emotional Day: A Child’s Guide to Recognizing and Handling Emotions” is a creative project that fulfills the thesis requirement for Barrett, The Honors College at Arizona State University. It is an illustrated children’s book meant to help children ages 4-7 identify, understand, and manage the six basic emotions. The illustrations of the main character throughout the book display clear facial expressions associated with each emotion, which were designed for children to easily identify them. The text in the story portion will prompt children to understand the feelings behind each emotion in a simple matter, and the end of the book provides techniques for them to manage emotions. Research on the importance of teaching children emotions, how to teach them, and similar children’s literature are discussed. Facial expressions and feelings while experiencing an emotion was also researched, which is presented in the creative process. An analysis of the text and illustrations is provided as well.
ContributorsMartinson, Hannah Marie (Author) / Jimenez-Arista, Laura (Thesis director) / Pereira, Jennifer (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Honey bee workers display remarkable flexibility in the aging process. This plasticity is closely tied to behavioral maturation. Workers who initiate foraging behavior at earlier ages have shorter lifespans, and much of the variation in total lifespan can be explained by differences in pre-foraging lifespan. Vitellogenin (Vg), a yolk precursor protein, influences worker lifespan both as a regulator of behavioral maturation and through anti-oxidant and immune functions. Experimental reduction of Vg mRNA, and thus Vg protein levels, in wild-type bees results in precocious foraging behavior, decreased lifespan, and increased susceptibility to oxidative damage. We sought to separate the effects of Vg on lifespan due to behavioral maturation from those due to immune and antioxidant function using two selected strains of honey bees that differ in their phenotypic responsiveness to Vg gene knockdown. Surprisingly, we found that lifespans lengthen in the strain described as behaviorally and hormonally insensitive to Vg reduction. We then performed targeted gene expression analyses on genes hypothesized to mediate aging and lifespan: the insulin-like peptides (Ilp1 and 2) and manganese superoxide dismutase (mnSOD). The two honey bee Ilps are the most upstream components in the insulin-signaling pathway, which influences lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster and other organisms, while manganese superoxide dismutase encodes an enzyme with antioxidant functions in animals. We found expression differences in the llps in fat body related to behavior (llp1 and 2) and genetic background (Ilp2), but did not find strain by treatment effects. Expression of mnSOD was also affected by behavior and genetic background. Additionally, we observed a differential response to Vg knockdown in fat body expression of mnSOD, suggesting that antioxidant pathways may partially explain the strain-specific lifespan responses to Vg knockdown.
ContributorsIhle, Kate (Author) / Fondrk, M. Kim (Author) / Page, Robert (Author) / Amdam, Gro (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-01-01