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Description
The Clean Power Plan seeks to reduce CO2 emissions in the energy industry, which is the largest source of CO2 emissions in the United States. In order to comply with the Clean Power Plan, electric utilities in Arizona will need to meet the electricity demand while reducing the use of fossil fuel sources in generation. The study first outlines the organization of the power sector in the United States and the structural and price changes attempted in the industry during the period of restructuring. The recent final rule of the Clean Power Plan is then described in detail with a narrowed focus on Arizona. Data from APS, a representative utility of Arizona, is used for the remainder of the analysis to determine the price increase necessary to cut Arizona's CO2 emissions in order to meet the federal goal. The first regression models the variables which affect total demand and thus generation load, from which we estimate the marginal effect of price on demand. The second regression models CO2 emissions as a function of different levels of generation. This allows the effect of generation on emissions to fluctuate with ranges of load, following the logic of the merit order of plants and changing rates of emissions for different sources. Two methods are used to find the necessary percentage increase in price to meet the CPP goals: one based on the mass-based goal for Arizona and the other based on the percentage reduction for Arizona. Then a price increase is calculated for a projection into the future using known changes in energy supply.
ContributorsHerman, Laura Alexandra (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
A semi-implicit, fourth-order time-filtered leapfrog numerical scheme is investigated for accuracy and stability, and applied to several test cases, including one-dimensional advection and diffusion, the anelastic equations to simulate the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, and the global shallow water spectral model to simulate the nonlinear evolution of twin tropical cyclones. The leapfrog scheme leads to computational modes in the solutions to highly nonlinear systems, and time-filters are often used to damp these modes. The proposed filter damps the computational modes without appreciably degrading the physical mode. Its performance in these metrics is superior to the second-order time-filtered leapfrog scheme developed by Robert and Asselin.
ContributorsBurke, Lee Matthew Moore (Author) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Preventive maintenance is a practice that has become popular in recent years, largely due to the increased dependency on electronics and other mechanical systems in modern technologies. The main idea of preventive maintenance is to take care of maintenance-type issues before they fully appear or cause disruption of processes and daily operations. One of the most important parts is being able to predict and foreshadow failures in the system, in order to make sure that those are fixed before they turn into large issues. One specific area where preventive maintenance is a very big part of daily activity is the automotive industry. Automobile owners are encouraged to take their cars in for maintenance on a routine schedule (based on mileage or time), or when their car signals that there is an issue (low oil levels for example). Although this level of maintenance is enough when people are in charge of cars, the rise of autonomous vehicles, specifically self-driving cars, changes that. Now instead of a human being able to look at a car and diagnose any issues, the car needs to be able to do this itself. The objective of this project was to create such a system. The Electronics Preventive Maintenance System is an internal system that is designed to meet all these criteria and more. The EPMS system is comprised of a central computer which monitors all major electronic components in an autonomous vehicle through the use of standard off-the-shelf sensors. The central computer compiles the sensor data, and is able to sort and analyze the readings. The filtered data is run through several mathematical models, each of which diagnoses issues in different parts of the vehicle. The data for each component in the vehicle is compared to pre-set operating conditions. These operating conditions are set in order to encompass all normal ranges of output. If the sensor data is outside the margins, the warning and deviation are recorded and a severity level is calculated. In addition to the individual focus, there's also a vehicle-wide model, which predicts how necessary maintenance is for the vehicle. All of these results are analyzed by a simple heuristic algorithm and a decision is made for the vehicle's health status, which is sent out to the Fleet Management System. This system allows for accurate, effortless monitoring of all parts of an autonomous vehicle as well as predictive modeling that allows the system to determine maintenance needs. With this system, human inspectors are no longer necessary for a fleet of autonomous vehicles. Instead, the Fleet Management System is able to oversee inspections, and the system operator is able to set parameters to decide when to send cars for maintenance. All the models used for the sensor and component analysis are tailored specifically to the vehicle. The models and operating margins are created using empirical data collected during normal testing operations. The system is modular and can be used in a variety of different vehicle platforms, including underwater autonomous vehicles and aerial vehicles.
ContributorsMian, Sami T. (Author) / Collofello, James (Thesis director) / Chen, Yinong (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a malignant, aggressive and infiltrative cancer of the central nervous system with a median survival of 14.6 months with standard care. Diagnosis of GBM is made using medical imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT). Treatment is informed by medical images and includes chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and surgical removal if the tumor is surgically accessible. Treatment seldom results in a significant increase in longevity, partly due to the lack of precise information regarding tumor size and location. This lack of information arises from the physical limitations of MR and CT imaging coupled with the diffusive nature of glioblastoma tumors. GBM tumor cells can migrate far beyond the visible boundaries of the tumor and will result in a recurring tumor if not killed or removed. Since medical images are the only readily available information about the tumor, we aim to improve mathematical models of tumor growth to better estimate the missing information. Particularly, we investigate the effect of random variation in tumor cell behavior (anisotropy) using stochastic parameterizations of an established proliferation-diffusion model of tumor growth. To evaluate the performance of our mathematical model, we use MR images from an animal model consisting of Murine GL261 tumors implanted in immunocompetent mice, which provides consistency in tumor initiation and location, immune response, genetic variation, and treatment. Compared to non-stochastic simulations, stochastic simulations showed improved volume accuracy when proliferation variability was high, but diffusion variability was found to only marginally affect tumor volume estimates. Neither proliferation nor diffusion variability significantly affected the spatial distribution accuracy of the simulations. While certain cases of stochastic parameterizations improved volume accuracy, they failed to significantly improve simulation accuracy overall. Both the non-stochastic and stochastic simulations failed to achieve over 75% spatial distribution accuracy, suggesting that the underlying structure of the model fails to capture one or more biological processes that affect tumor growth. Two biological features that are candidates for further investigation are angiogenesis and anisotropy resulting from differences between white and gray matter. Time-dependent proliferation and diffusion terms could be introduced to model angiogenesis, and diffusion weighed imaging (DTI) could be used to differentiate between white and gray matter, which might allow for improved estimates brain anisotropy.
ContributorsAnderies, Barrett James (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Stepien, Tracy (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Aberrant glycosylation has been shown to be linked to specific cancers, and using this idea, it was proposed that the levels of glycans in the blood could predict stage I adenocarcinoma. To track this glycosylation, glycan were broken down into glycan nodes via methylation analysis. This analysis utilized information from N-, O-, and lipid linked glycans detected from gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The resulting glycan node-ratios represent the initial quantitative data that were used in this experiment.
For this experiment, two Sets of 50 µl blood plasma samples were provided by NYU Medical School. These samples were then analyzed by Dr. Borges’s lab so that they contained normalized biomarker levels from patients with stage 1 adenocarcinoma and control patients with matched age, smoking status, and gender were examined. An ROC curve was constructed under individual and paired conditions and AUC calculated in Wolfram Mathematica 10.2. Methods such as increasing size of training set, using hard vs. soft margins, and processing biomarkers together and individually were used in order to increase the AUC. Using a soft margin for this particular data set was proved to be most useful compared to the initial set hard margin, raising the AUC from 0.6013 to 0.6585. In regards to which biomarkers yielded the better value, 6-Glc/6-Man and 3,6-Gal glycan node ratios had the best with 0.7687 AUC and a sensitivity of .7684 and specificity of .6051. While this is not enough accuracy to become a primary diagnostic tool for diagnosing stage I adenocarcinoma, the methods examined in the paper should be evaluated further. . By comparison, the current clinical standard blood test for prostate cancer that has an AUC of only 0.67.
For this experiment, two Sets of 50 µl blood plasma samples were provided by NYU Medical School. These samples were then analyzed by Dr. Borges’s lab so that they contained normalized biomarker levels from patients with stage 1 adenocarcinoma and control patients with matched age, smoking status, and gender were examined. An ROC curve was constructed under individual and paired conditions and AUC calculated in Wolfram Mathematica 10.2. Methods such as increasing size of training set, using hard vs. soft margins, and processing biomarkers together and individually were used in order to increase the AUC. Using a soft margin for this particular data set was proved to be most useful compared to the initial set hard margin, raising the AUC from 0.6013 to 0.6585. In regards to which biomarkers yielded the better value, 6-Glc/6-Man and 3,6-Gal glycan node ratios had the best with 0.7687 AUC and a sensitivity of .7684 and specificity of .6051. While this is not enough accuracy to become a primary diagnostic tool for diagnosing stage I adenocarcinoma, the methods examined in the paper should be evaluated further. . By comparison, the current clinical standard blood test for prostate cancer that has an AUC of only 0.67.
ContributorsDe Jesus, Celine Spicer (Author) / Taylor, Thomas (Thesis director) / Borges, Chad (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
An increasing number of military veterans are enrolling in college, primarily due to the Post-9/11 GI Bill, which provides educational benefits to veterans who served on active duty since September 11, 2001. With rigorous training, active combat situations, and exposure to unexpected situations, the veteran population is at a higher risk for traumatic brain injury (TBI), Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), and depression. All of these conditions are associated with cognitive consequences, including attention deficits, working memory problems, and episodic memory impairments. Some conditions, particularly mild TBI, are not diagnosed or treated until long after the injury when the person realizes they have cognitive difficulties. Even mild cognitive problems can hinder learning in an academic setting, but there is little data on the frequency and severity of cognitive deficits in veteran college students. The current study examines self-reported cognitive symptoms in veteran students compared to civilian students and how those symptoms relate to service-related conditions. A better understanding of the pattern of self-reported symptoms will help researchers and clinicians determine the veterans who are at higher risk for cognitive and academic difficulties.
ContributorsAllen, Kelly Anne (Author) / Azuma, Tamiko (Thesis director) / Gallagher, Karen (Committee member) / Department of Speech and Hearing Science (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The detection and characterization of transients in signals is important in many wide-ranging applications from computer vision to audio processing. Edge detection on images is typically realized using small, local, discrete convolution kernels, but this is not possible when samples are measured directly in the frequency domain. The concentration factor edge detection method was therefore developed to realize an edge detector directly from spectral data. This thesis explores the possibilities of detecting edges from the phase of the spectral data, that is, without the magnitude of the sampled spectral data. Prior work has demonstrated that the spectral phase contains particularly important information about underlying features in a signal. Furthermore, the concentration factor method yields some insight into the detection of edges in spectral phase data. An iterative design approach was taken to realize an edge detector using only the spectral phase data, also allowing for the design of an edge detector when phase data are intermittent or corrupted. Problem formulations showing the power of the design approach are given throughout. A post-processing scheme relying on the difference of multiple edge approximations yields a strong edge detector which is shown to be resilient under noisy, intermittent phase data. Lastly, a thresholding technique is applied to give an explicit enhanced edge detector ready to be used. Examples throughout are demonstrate both on signals and images.
ContributorsReynolds, Alexander Bryce (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis director) / Cochran, Douglas (Committee member) / Viswanathan, Adityavikram (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Chebfun is a collection of algorithms and an open-source software system in object-oriented Matlab that extends familiar powerful methods of numerical computation involving numbers to continuous or piecewise-continuous functions. The success of this strategy is based on the mathematical fact that smooth functions can be represented very efficiently by polynomial interpolation at Chebyshev points or by trigonometric interpolation at equispaced points for periodic functions. More recently, the system has been extended to handle bivariate functions and vector fields. These two new classes of objects are called Chebfun2 and Chebfun2v, respectively. We will show that Chebfun2 and Chebfun2v, and can be used to accurately and efficiently perform various computations on parametric surfaces in two or three dimensions, including path trajectories and mean and Gaussian curvatures. More advanced surface computations such as mean curvature flows are also explored. This is also the first work to use the newly implemented trigonometric representation, namely Trigfun, for computations on surfaces.
ContributorsPage-Bottorff, Courtney Michelle (Author) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are responsible for pollinating nearly 80\% of all pollinated plants, meaning humans depend on honey bees to pollinate many staple crops. The success or failure of a colony is vital to global food production. There are various complex factors that can contribute to a colony's failure, including pesticides. Neonicotoids are a popular pesticide that have been used in recent times. In this study we concern ourselves with pesticides and its impact on honey bee colonies. Previous investigations that we draw significant inspiration from include Khoury et Al's \emph{A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics}, Henry et Al's \emph{A Common Pesticide Decreases Foraging Success and Survival in Honey Bees}, and Brown's \emph{ Mathematical Models of Honey Bee Populations: Rapid Population Decline}. In this project we extend a mathematical model to investigate the impact of pesticides on a honey bee colony, with birth rates and death rates being dependent on pesticides, and we see how these death rates influence the growth of a colony. Our studies have found an equilibrium point that depends on pesticides. Trace amounts of pesticide are detrimental as they not only affect death rates, but birth rates as well.
ContributorsSalinas, Armando (Author) / Vaz, Paul (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
A Guide to Financial Mathematics is a comprehensive and easy-to-use study guide for students studying for the one of the first actuarial exams, Exam FM. While there are many resources available to students to study for these exams, this study is free to the students and offers an approach to the material similar to that of which is presented in class at ASU. The guide is available to students and professors in the new Actuarial Science degree program offered by ASU. There are twelve chapters, including financial calculator tips, detailed notes, examples, and practice exercises. Included at the end of the guide is a list of referenced material.
ContributorsDougher, Caroline Marie (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Boggess, May (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05