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Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
A large fraction of the world grasslands and savannas are undergoing a rapid shift from herbaceous to woody-plant dominance. This land-cover change is expected to lead to a loss in livestock production (LP), but the impacts of woody-plant encroachment on this crucial ecosystem service have not been assessed. We evaluate how tree cover (TC) has affected LP at large spatial scales in rangelands of contrasting social–economic characteristics in the United States and Argentina. Our models indicate that in areas of high productivity, a 1% increase in TC results in a reduction in LP ranging from 0.6 to 1.6 reproductive cows (Rc) per km[superscript 2]. Mean LP in the United States is 27 Rc per km[superscript 2], so a 1% increase in TC results in a 2.5% decrease in mean LP. This effect is large considering that woody-plant cover has been described as increasing at 0.5% to 2% per y. On the contrary, in areas of low productivity, increased TC had a positive effect on LP. Our results also show that ecological factors account for a larger fraction of LP variability in Argentinean than in US rangelands. Differences in the relative importance of ecological versus nonecological drivers of LP in Argentina and the United States suggest that the valuation of ecosystem services between these two rangelands might be different. Current management strategies in Argentina are likely designed to maximize LP for various reasons we are unable to explore in this effort, whereas land managers in the United States may be optimizing multiple ecosystem services, including conservation or recreation, alongside LP.
ContributorsAnadon, Jose Daniel (Author) / Sala, Osvaldo (Author) / Turner II, B. L. (Author) / Bennett, Elena M. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2014-09-02
Description
We studied the microbial community structure of pilot two-stage membrane biofilm reactors (MBfRs) designed to reduce nitrate (NO[subscript 3]–) and perchlorate (ClO[subscript 4]–) in contaminated groundwater. The groundwater also contained oxygen (O[subscript 2]) and sulfate (SO[2 over 4]–), which became important electron sinks that affected the NO[subscript 3]– and ClO[subscript 4]– removal rates. Using pyrosequencing, we elucidated how important phylotypes of each “primary” microbial group, i.e., denitrifying bacteria (DB), perchlorate-reducing bacteria (PRB), and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB), responded to changes in electron-acceptor loading. UniFrac, principal coordinate analysis (PCoA), and diversity analyses documented that the microbial community of biofilms sampled when the MBfRs had a high acceptor loading were phylogenetically distant from and less diverse than the microbial community of biofilm samples with lower acceptor loadings. Diminished acceptor loading led to SO[2 over 4]– reduction in the lag MBfR, which allowed Desulfovibrionales (an SRB) and Thiothrichales (sulfur-oxidizers) to thrive through S cycling. As a result of this cooperative relationship, they competed effectively with DB/PRB phylotypes such as Xanthomonadales and Rhodobacterales. Thus, pyrosequencing illustrated that while DB, PRB, and SRB responded predictably to changes in acceptor loading, a decrease in total acceptor loading led to important shifts within the “primary” groups, the onset of other members (e.g., Thiothrichales), and overall greater diversity.
ContributorsOntiveros-Valencia, Aura (Author) / Tang, Youneng (Author) / Zhao, Heping (Author) / Friese, David (Author) / Overstreet, Ryan (Author) / Smith, Jennifer (Author) / Evans, Patrick (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Author) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2014-07-01
Description
The City of Phoenix Street Transportation Department partnered with the Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University (ASU) and researchers from various ASU schools to evaluate the effectiveness, performance, and community perception of the new pavement coating. The data collection and analysis occurred across multiple neighborhoods and at varying times across days and/or months over the course of one year (July 15, 2020–July 14, 2021), allowing the team to study the impacts of the surface treatment under various weather conditions.
ContributorsMiddel, Ariane (Author) / Vanos, Jennifer K. (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Kaloush, Kamil (Author) / Sailor, David (Author) / Medina, Jose R. (Jose Roberto) (Author) / Schneider, Florian (Author) / Ortiz, Johny Cordova (Author) / Campbell, Bill (Author) / Epel, Erin (Contributor) / Rice, Brendan (Contributor) / Garcia, Ruth (Contributor) / Phoenix (Ariz.). Street Transportation Department (Contributor) / City of Phoenix (Funder) / Industrial Development Authority of the County of Maricopa (Funder) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Funder) / Arizona State University. Healthy Urban Environments Program (Contributor)
Created2021-09
Description
This dissertation describes a series of four studies on cognitive aging, working memory, and cognitive flexibility in dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and their wild relatives. In Chapters 2 and 3, I designed assessments for age-related cognitive deficits in pet dogs which can be deployed rapidly using inexpensive and accessible materials. These novel tests can be easily implemented by owners, veterinarians, and clinicians and therefore, may improve care for elderly dogs by aiding in the diagnosis of dementia. In addition, these widely deployable tests may facilitate the use of dementia in pet dogs as a naturally occurring model of Alzheimer’s Disease in humans.In Chapters 4 and 5, I modified one of these tests to demonstrate for the first time that coyotes (Canis latrans) and wolves (Canis lupus lupus) develop age-related deficits in cognitive flexibility. This was an important first step towards differentiating between the genetic and environmental components of dementia in dogs and in turn, humans. Unexpectedly, I also detected cognitive deficits in young, adult dogs and wolves but not coyotes. These finding add to a recent shift in understanding cognitive development in dogs which may improve cognitive aging tests as well as training, care, and use of working and pet dogs. These findings also suggest that the ecology of coyotes may select for flexibility earlier in development.
In Chapter 5, I piloted the use of the same cognitive flexibility test for red and gray foxes so that future studies may test for lifespan changes in the cognition of small-bodied captive canids. More broadly, this paradigm may accommodate physical and behavioral differences between diverse pet and captive animals. In Chapters 4 and 5, I examined which ecological traits drive the evolution of behavioral flexibility and in turn, species resilience. I found that wolves displayed less flexibility than dogs and coyotes suggesting that species which do not rely heavily on unstable resources may be ill-equipped to cope with human habitat modification. Ultimately, this comparative work may help conservation practitioners to identify and protect species that cannot cope with rapid and unnatural environmental change.
ContributorsVan Bourg, Joshua (Author) / Wynne, Clive D (Thesis advisor) / Aktipis, C. Athena (Committee member) / Gilby, Ian C (Committee member) / Young, Julie K (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Yersinia enterocolitica is a major foodborne pathogen found worldwide that causes approximately 87,000 human cases and approximately 1,100 hospitalizations per year in the United States. Y. enterocolitica is a very unique pathogen with the domesticated pig acting as the main animal reservoir for pathogenic bio/serotypes, and as the primary source of human infection. Similar to other gastrointestinal infections, Yersinia enterocolitica is known to trigger autoimmune responses in humans. The most frequent complication associated with Y. enterocolitica is reactive arthritis - an aseptic, asymmetrical inflammation in the peripheral and axial joints, most frequently occurring as an autoimmune response in patients with the HLA-B27 histocompatability antigen. As a foodborne illness it may prove to be a reasonable explanation for some of the cases of arthritis observed in past populations that are considered to be of unknown etiology. The goal of this dissertation project was to study the relationship between the foodborne illness -Y. enterocolitica, and the incidence of arthritis in individuals with and without contact with the domesticated pig.
ContributorsBrown, Starletta (Author) / Hurtado, Ana M (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Hill, Kim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Extraordinary medical advances have led to significant reductions in the burden of infectious diseases in humans. However, infectious diseases still account for more than 13 million annual deaths. This large burden is partly due to some pathogens having found suitable conditions to emerge and spread in denser and more connected host populations, and others having evolved to escape the pressures imposed by the rampant use of antimicrobials. It is then critical to improve our understanding of how diseases spread in these modern landscapes, characterized by new host population structures and socio-economic environments, as well as containment measures such as the deployment of drugs. Thus, the motivation of this dissertation is two-fold. First, we study, using both data-driven and modeling approaches, the the spread of infectious diseases in urban areas. As a case study, we use confirmed-cases data on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States to assess the conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socio-economic characteristics as predictors of STD incidence. We find that the scaling of STD incidence in cities is superlinear, and that the percent of African-Americans residing in cities largely determines these statistical patterns. Since disparities in access to health care are often exacerbated in urban areas, within this project we also develop two modeling frameworks to study the effect of health care disparities on epidemic outcomes. Discrepant results between the two approaches indicate that knowledge of the shape of the recovery period distribution, not just its mean and variance, is key for assessing the epidemiological impact of inequalities. The second project proposes to study, from a modeling perspective, the spread of drug resistance in human populations featuring vital dynamics, stochasticity and contact structure. We derive effective treatment regimes that minimize both the overall disease burden and the spread of resistance. Additionally, targeted treatment in structured host populations may lead to higher levels of drug resistance, and if drug-resistant strains are compensated, they can spread widely even when the wild-type strain is below its epidemic threshold.
ContributorsPatterson-Lomba, Oscar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Urban scaling analysis has introduced a new scientific paradigm to the study of cities. With it, the notions of size, heterogeneity and structure have taken a leading role. These notions are assumed to be behind the causes for why cities differ from one another, sometimes wildly. However, the mechanisms by which size, heterogeneity and structure shape the general statistical patterns that describe urban economic output are still unclear. Given the rapid rate of urbanization around the globe, we need precise and formal mathematical understandings of these matters. In this context, I perform in this dissertation probabilistic, distributional and computational explorations of (i) how the broadness, or narrowness, of the distribution of individual productivities within cities determines what and how we measure urban systemic output, (ii) how urban scaling may be expressed as a statistical statement when urban metrics display strong stochasticity, (iii) how the processes of aggregation constrain the variability of total urban output, and (iv) how the structure of urban skills diversification within cities induces a multiplicative process in the production of urban output.
ContributorsGómez-Liévano, Andrés (Author) / Lobo, Jose (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Bettencourt, Luis M. A. (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
ABSTRACT
Domestic dogs have assisted humans for millennia. However, the extent to which these helpful behaviors are prosocially motivated remains unclear. To assess the propensity of pet dogs to spontaneously and actively rescue distressed humans, this study tested whether sixty pet dogs would release their seemingly trapped owners from a large box. To examine the causal mechanisms that shaped this behavior, the readiness of each dog to open the box was tested in three conditions: 1) the owner sat in the box and called for help (“Distress” test), 2) an experimenter placed high-value food rewards in the box (“Food” test), and 3) the owner sat in the box and calmly read aloud (“Reading” test).
Dogs were as likely to release their distressed owner as to retrieve treats from inside the box, indicating that rescuing an owner may be a highly rewarding action for dogs. After accounting for ability, dogs released the owner more often when the owner called for help than when the owner read aloud calmly. In addition, opening latencies decreased with test number in the Distress test but not the Reading test. Thus, rescuing the owner could not be attributed solely to social facilitation, stimulus enhancement, or social contact-seeking behavior.
Dogs displayed more stress behaviors in the Distress test than in the Reading test, and stress scores decreased with test number in the Reading test but not in the Distress test. This evidence of emotional contagion supports the hypothesis that rescuing the distressed owner was an empathetically-motivated prosocial behavior. Success in the Food task and previous (in-home) experience opening objects were both strong predictors of releasing the owner. Thus, prosocial behavior tests for dogs should control for physical ability and previous experience.
Domestic dogs have assisted humans for millennia. However, the extent to which these helpful behaviors are prosocially motivated remains unclear. To assess the propensity of pet dogs to spontaneously and actively rescue distressed humans, this study tested whether sixty pet dogs would release their seemingly trapped owners from a large box. To examine the causal mechanisms that shaped this behavior, the readiness of each dog to open the box was tested in three conditions: 1) the owner sat in the box and called for help (“Distress” test), 2) an experimenter placed high-value food rewards in the box (“Food” test), and 3) the owner sat in the box and calmly read aloud (“Reading” test).
Dogs were as likely to release their distressed owner as to retrieve treats from inside the box, indicating that rescuing an owner may be a highly rewarding action for dogs. After accounting for ability, dogs released the owner more often when the owner called for help than when the owner read aloud calmly. In addition, opening latencies decreased with test number in the Distress test but not the Reading test. Thus, rescuing the owner could not be attributed solely to social facilitation, stimulus enhancement, or social contact-seeking behavior.
Dogs displayed more stress behaviors in the Distress test than in the Reading test, and stress scores decreased with test number in the Reading test but not in the Distress test. This evidence of emotional contagion supports the hypothesis that rescuing the distressed owner was an empathetically-motivated prosocial behavior. Success in the Food task and previous (in-home) experience opening objects were both strong predictors of releasing the owner. Thus, prosocial behavior tests for dogs should control for physical ability and previous experience.
ContributorsVan Bourg, Joshua Lazar (Author) / Wynne, Clive D (Thesis advisor) / Gilby, Ian C (Committee member) / Aktipis, C. Athena (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019