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As Arizona enters its fifteenth year of drought and Lake Mead hits historic lows, water management and policy planning will become increasingly important to ensure future water security in the Southwestern region of the United States. This thesis compares water demand trends and policies at the municipal level in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona over the time period from 1980-2010. By analyzing gallons per capita per day (GPCD) trends for each city in the context of population growth, drought, and major state and local policies over the twenty year period, reasons for declines in per capita water demand were explored. Despite differences in their available water sources and political cultures, both the City of Phoenix and the City of Tucson have successfully reduced their per capita water consumption levels between 1980 and 2010. However, this study suggests that each city's measured success at reducing GPCD has been more a result of external events (supply augmentation, drought, and differing development trends) rather than conservation and demand reduction regulations adopted under the auspices of the Groundwater Management Act.
ContributorsSnyder, Rachel Claire (Author) / Larson, Kelli (Thesis director) / Hirt, Paul (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
With an excessive amount of resources in the United States healthcare system being spent on the treatment of diseases that are largely preventable through lifestyle change, the need for successful physical activity interventions is apparent. Unfortunately an individual's physical activity and health goals are often not supported by the social context of their daily lives. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention through Text messaging for CoHabiting individuals (WalkIT CoHab), looks at the efficacy of a text based adaptive physical activity intervention to promote walking over a three month period and the effects of social support in intervention performance in three pairs of cohabiting pairs of individuals (n=6). Mean step increase from baseline to intervention ranged from 1300 to 3000 steps per day for all individuals, an average 45.87% increase in physical activity. Goal attainment during the intervention ranged from 43.96% to 71.43%, meaning all participants exceeded the 40% success rate predicted by 60th percentile goals. Social support scores for study partners, unlike social support scores for family and friends, were often in the high social support range and had a moderate increase from pre to post visits for most participants. Although there was variation amongst participants, there was a high correlation in physical activity trends and successful goal attainment in each pair of participants. Less ambitious percentile goals and more personalized motivational text messages might be beneficial to some participants. An extended intervention, something the majority of participants expressed interest in, would further support the efficacy of this behavioral intervention and allow for possible long term benefits of social support in the intervention to be investigated.
ContributorsFernandez, Jacqueline Alyssa (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Angadi, Siddhartha (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The storm events of summer 2014 proved to be some of the highest on record for Maricopa County. Flash flooding has been an ongoing issue within Arizona during the monsoon season due to the remnants of hurricanes that result in short, high intensity storms. The proximity of these intense storm events and their corresponding flooding structures is imperative in reducing the impact of these events on the community. The analysis of the maximum precipitation events for Tempe, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Goodyear, Peoria, Avondale and Glendale during the summer of 2014 proved that there were many events that had a calculated recurrence of 100 years or greater. The storm event with the most precipitation events with a recurrence of 100 years or greater was September 8, 2014. This storm event also produced a streamflow response that had the highest recorded streamflow at gages near the events with a 100 year recurrence. These intervals represent a larger amount of rain during a precipitation event and this correlation suggests that short burst of extreme weather was not a trend in this data. Rather, high storm events occurred over the span of 24 hours. The most frequent response of the stream gage to this rain event was a streamflow event that has a recurrence of 2-5 years. This suggests that the channels and flooding structures used to contain the rain events were effective in reducing the amount of water and therefore effectively managing the flooding response. An analysis of newspaper commentary and an interview with a representative from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) indicated that there is a disconnect between public perception and the structure of FCDMC. Through this analysis a better understanding of the FCDMC as well as the impact of severe storm events in Maricopa County was found.
ContributorsBrancati, Olivia Anne (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique (Thesis director) / White, Dave (Committee member) / Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
An increasingly sedentary population in the United States, specifically with adolescents, is putting youth at risk of future health related trauma and disease. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention Through Text Messaging for Adolescents (WalkIT-A), was used to intervene with a 12-year old, physically inactive male, in an attempt to test the efficacy of a 12-week physical activity program that may help reduce health risks by increasing number of steps walked per day. The components of the intervention consisted of a FitBit Zip pedometer, physical activity education, text messages, monetary incentives, and goal setting that adapted personally to the participant. Mean step count increased by 30% from baseline (mean = 3603 [sd = 1983]) to intervention (mean = 4693 [sd = 2112]); then increased slightly by 6.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 5009 [sd = 2152]). Mean "very active minutes" increased by 45% from baseline (mean = 8.8 [sd = 8.9]) to intervention (mean = 12.8 [sd = 9.6]); then increased by 61.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 20.7 [sd = 8.4]). Weight, BMI, and blood pressure all increased modestly from pre to post. Cardiovascular fitness (estimated VO2 max) improved by 12.5% from pre (25.5ml*kg-1*min-1) to post (28.7ml*kg-1*min-1). The intervention appeared to have a delayed and residual effect on the participant's daily steps and very active minutes. Although the idealistic ABA pattern did not occur, and the participant did not meet the target of 11,500 daily steps, a positive trend toward that target behavior in the latter 1/3rd of the intervention was observed. Results suggest the need for an extended intervention over a longer period of time and customized even further to the participant.
ContributorsLamb, Nicholas Reid (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)
Created2014-12
Description
Pima was not the original name for the tribe of the Native Americans that lived along the Gila River, but their name is only one of many changes this tribe has faced due to the influence of outside sources. Pima was a name given to this tribe by the Spaniards during the 1600s. Throughout history the Pima have fought not only for their rights as a nation, but also for the rights of their beloved river, the Gila River. The relationship between the Pima tribe and Gila River is a very strong and deep connection. In fact, the Pima call themselves A-a'tam, which means "the people," and they identify with the Papago, a historical name for the Indians in the Sonoran Desert. A'kimult, which means "river" was added to their name as well. Being known as the River People may fit perfectly with this tribe due to their close knit and respectful relationship with the river over the decades (Russell, "The Pima Indians, 1975). Today the Pima call the Gila River Indian Community their main Tribal headquarters, which is located south of Phoenix. The Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) is part of both the Pinal and Maricopa counties and has a land area of 583.749 square miles ("Brownfields", 2010). Water deprivation and a bleak agricultural economy are challenges facing the Pima, which historically were strong in both areas. The Gila River has gone from a naturally flowing river to a restricted and nearly dried up waterbed. This research paper will examine the changes that both the Pima and the Gila River have undergone since settlers began to claim land in the late 1800's. It is my goal to look into the natural history and ecology of the Gila River and explain how this change has affected the Pima and their sustainability as a tribe. The ultimate goal is to have information easily accessible for reference for future research projects and to ] provide background information to help implement new programs and projects that will benefit the GRIC. Understanding the relationship between the Gila Valley and Pima will present areas where sustainable projects can improve the economy and society as a whole. The Native Americans who will be specifically addressed during this research are the tribes on the GRIC, which comprise the Akimel O-odham (Pima) and Pee Posh (Maricopa). These communities have a resident population of 15,084 and are located in the Maricopa and Pinal counties of central Arizona, to the south and east of metropolitan Phoenix ("Brownfields", 2010). Today the community is 372,000 acres and varies with an elevation of 935 feet to 1,450 feet ("Gila River", 2012). Literature will be the primary area of research along with informal discussions with employees of the GRIC. The Pimas' beliefs, interests, and practices will be addressed and researched; and review of the literature that deals with each problem they have faced as a result of the changing economy and society. By researching the relationship and proposing new ideas to help maintain the GRIC it will assure that the interests of the Pima are the priority. The potential that this research project can offer must encompass cultural sustainability, which is "developing, renewing and maintaining human cultures that create positive, enduring relationships with other peoples and the natural world" (Hawkes, 2001).
ContributorsRagan, McKenzie (Author) / Martinez, David (Thesis director) / Larson, Kelli (Committee member) / Manetta, Carol (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / College of Public Programs (Contributor)
Created2012-12
Description
The WalkIT Study is a mobile health study examining the efficacy of a four month text message-based intervention for increasing physical activity among 96 overweight adults. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the potency of the different types of motivational prompt-to-action text messages used in the WalkIT Study for increasing steps per day by examining the individual messages, creating qualitative themes and comparing themed groups, and evaluating the interaction between demographic subgroups and themed groups. A total of nine themes was created. The results found that Message 13, “It doesn't matter how old you are – it's never too early or too late to become physically active so start today; only then will you start to see results!”, had the highest median step count (7129 steps) and Message 71, “It's ok if you can't reach your goal today. Just push yourself more tomorrow.”, had the lowest median step count (5054 steps). For themes, the highest median step count (6640 steps) was found in Theme 6, Challenges, and the lowest median step count (5450 steps) was found in Theme 9, Unconditional Feedback. Theme 6 (Challenges) had the highest median step count for females, Theme 7 (Everyday Tips) had the highest median step count for males, Theme 4 (Nutrition) had the highest median step count for the 18-42 group, Theme 6 (Challenges) had the highest median step count for the 43-61 group, and Theme 9 (Unconditional Feedback) had the lowest median step count for both genders and both age groups. The results suggest the usefulness of analyzing the effectiveness of individual motivational text messages, themes, and the interaction between demographic groups and themes in physical activity interventions.
ContributorsBhuiyan, Nishat Anjum (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) virus has had severe impacts on college students' ways of life. To examine how students were coping and perceiving the Covid-19 pandemic, a secondary analysis of an online survey across the three Arizona public universities investigated students’ knowledge about Covid-19, engagement with preventive strategies, pandemic preparedness and gauged their risk perception. Results from our analysis indicate that the students were knowledgeable about Covid-19 and were changing their habits and engaging with preventive measures. Results further suggest that students were prepared for the pandemic in terms of resources and were exhibiting high-risk perceptions. The data also revealed that students who were being cautious and engaging with preventive behaviors had a higher risk-perception than individuals who were not. As for individuals who were prepared for the pandemic in terms of supplies, their risk perception was similar to those who did not have supplies. Individuals who were prepared and capable of providing a single caretaker to tend to their sick household members and isolate them in a separate room had a higher risk perception than those who could not. These results can help describe how college students will react to a future significant event, what resources students may be in need of, and how universities can take additional steps to keep their students safe and healthy. The results from this study and recommendations will provide for a stronger and more understanding campus community during times of distress and can improve upon already established university protocols for health crises and even natural disasters.
ContributorsNaqvi, Avina Itrat (Co-author) / Shaikh, Sara (Co-author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) virus has had severe impacts on college students' ways of life. To examine how students were coping and perceiving the Covid-19 pandemic, a secondary analysis of an online survey across the three Arizona public universities investigated students’ knowledge about Covid-19, engagement with preventive strategies, pandemic preparedness and gauged their risk-perception. Results from our analysis indicate that the students were knowledgeable about Covid-19 and were changing their habits and engaging with preventive measures. Results further suggest that students were prepared for the pandemic in terms of resources and were exhibiting high-risk perceptions. The data also revealed that students who were being cautious and engaging with preventive behaviors had a higher risk-perception than individuals who were not. As for individuals who were prepared for the pandemic in terms of supplies, their risk perception was similar to those who did not have supplies. Individuals who were prepared and capable of providing a single caretaker to tend to their sick household members and isolate them in a separate room had a higher risk perception than those who could not. These results can help describe how college students will react to a future significant event, what resources students may be in need of, and how universities can take additional steps to keep their students safe and healthy. The results from this study and recommendations will provide for a stronger and more understanding campus community during times of distress and can improve upon already established university protocols for health crises and even natural disasters.
ContributorsShaikh, Sara (Co-author) / Naqvi, Avina (Co-author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05