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Diseases have been part of human life for generations and evolve within the population, sometimes dying out while other times becoming endemic or the cause of recurrent outbreaks. The long term influence of a disease stems from different dynamics within or between pathogen-host, that have been analyzed and studied by many researchers using mathematical models. Co-infection with different pathogens is common, yet little is known about how infection with one pathogen affects the host's immunological response to another. Moreover, no work has been found in the literature that considers the variability of the host immune health or that examines a disease at the population level and its corresponding interconnectedness with the host immune system. Knowing that the spread of the disease in the population starts at the individual level, this thesis explores how variability in immune system response within an endemic environment affects an individual's vulnerability, and how prone it is to co-infections. Immunology-based models of Malaria and Tuberculosis (TB) are constructed by extending and modifying existing mathematical models in the literature. The two are then combined to give a single nine-variable model of co-infection with Malaria and TB. Because these models are difficult to gain any insight analytically due to the large number of parameters, a phenomenological model of co-infection is proposed with subsystems corresponding to the individual immunology-based model of a single infection. Within this phenomenological model, the variability of the host immune health is also incorporated through three different pathogen response curves using nonlinear bounded Michaelis-Menten functions that describe the level or state of immune system (healthy, moderate and severely compromised). The immunology-based models of Malaria and TB give numerical results that agree with the biological observations. The Malaria--TB co-infection model gives reasonable results and these suggest that the order in which the two diseases are introduced have an impact on the behavior of both. The subsystems of the phenomenological models that correspond to a single infection (either of Malaria or TB) mimic much of the observed behavior of the immunology-based counterpart and can demonstrate different behavior depending on the chosen pathogen response curve. In addition, varying some of the parameters and initial conditions in the phenomenological model yields a range of topologically different mathematical behaviors, which suggests that this behavior may be able to be observed in the immunology-based models as well. The phenomenological models clearly replicate the qualitative behavior of primary and secondary infection as well as co-infection. The mathematical solutions of the models correspond to the fundamental states described by immunologists: virgin state, immune state and tolerance state. The phenomenological model of co-infection also demonstrates a range of parameter values and initial conditions in which the introduction of a second disease causes both diseases to grow without bound even though those same parameters and initial conditions did not yield unbounded growth in the corresponding subsystems. This results applies to all three states of the host immune system. In terms of the immunology-based system, this would suggest the following: there may be parameter values and initial conditions in which a person can clear Malaria or TB (separately) from their system but in which the presence of both can result in the person dying of one of the diseases. Finally, this thesis studies links between epidemiology (population level) and immunology in an effort to assess the impact of pathogen's spread within the population on the immune response of individuals. Models of Malaria and TB are proposed that incorporate the immune system of the host into a mathematical model of an epidemic at the population level.
ContributorsSoho, Edmé L (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
In this thesis I introduce a new direction to computing using nonlinear chaotic dynamics. The main idea is rich dynamics of a chaotic system enables us to (1) build better computers that have a flexible instruction set, and (2) carry out computation that conventional computers are not good at it. Here I start from the theory, explaining how one can build a computing logic block using a chaotic system, and then I introduce a new theoretical analysis for chaos computing. Specifically, I demonstrate how unstable periodic orbits and a model based on them explains and predicts how and how well a chaotic system can do computation. Furthermore, since unstable periodic orbits and their stability measures in terms of eigenvalues are extractable from experimental times series, I develop a time series technique for modeling and predicting chaos computing from a given time series of a chaotic system. After building a theoretical framework for chaos computing I proceed to architecture of these chaos-computing blocks to build a sophisticated computing system out of them. I describe how one can arrange and organize these chaos-based blocks to build a computer. I propose a brand new computer architecture using chaos computing, which shifts the limits of conventional computers by introducing flexible instruction set. Our new chaos based computer has a flexible instruction set, meaning that the user can load its desired instruction set to the computer to reconfigure the computer to be an implementation for the desired instruction set. Apart from direct application of chaos theory in generic computation, the application of chaos theory to speech processing is explained and a novel application for chaos theory in speech coding and synthesizing is introduced. More specifically it is demonstrated how a chaotic system can model the natural turbulent flow of the air in the human speech production system and how chaotic orbits can be used to excite a vocal tract model. Also as another approach to build computing system based on nonlinear system, the idea of Logical Stochastic Resonance is studied and adapted to an autoregulatory gene network in the bacteriophage λ.
ContributorsKia, Behnam (Author) / Ditto, William (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Liang (Committee member) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Committee member) / Helms Tillery, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Purpose: To examine: (1) whether Non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB) and Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) with diagnosed arthritis differed in self-reported physical activity (PA) levels, (2) if NHB and NHW with arthritis differed on potential correlates of PA based on the Social Ecological Model (Mcleroy et al., 1988), and (3) if PA participation varied by race/ethnicity after controlling for age, gender, education, and BMI. Methods: This study was a secondary data analysis of data collected from 2006-2008 in Chicago, IL as part of the Midwest Roybal Center for Health Promotion. Bivariate analyses were used to assess potential differences between race in meeting either ACR or ACSM PA guidelines. Comparisons by race between potential socio-demographic correlates and meeting physical activity guidelines were assessed using Chi-squares. Potential differences by race in psychosocial, arthritis, and health-related and environmental correlates were assessed using T-tests. Finally, logistic regression analyses were used to examine if race was still associated with PA after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Results: A greater proportion of NHW (68.1% and 35.3%) than NHB (46.5% and 20.9%) met both the arthritis-specific and the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) recommendations for physical activity, respectively. NHB had significantly lower self-efficacy for exercise and reported greater impairments in physical function compared to NHW. Likewise, NHB reported more crime and less aesthetics within their neighborhood. NHW were 2.56 times more likely to meet arthritis-specific PA guidelines than NHB after controlling for age, gender, education, marital status, and BMI. In contrast, after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, age and gender were the only significant predictors of meeting ACSM PA guidelines. Discussion: There were significant differences between NHB and NHW individuals with arthritis in meeting PA guidelines. After controlling for age, gender, education, and BMI non-Hispanic White individuals were still significantly more likely to meet PA guidelines. Interventions aimed at promoting higher levels of physical activity among individuals with arthritis need to consider neighborhood aesthetics and crime when designing programs. More arthritis-specific programs are needed in close proximity to neighborhoods in an effort to promote physical activity.
ContributorsChuran, Christopher (Author) / Der Ananian, Cheryl (Thesis advisor) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / Campbell, Kathryn (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Solution methods for certain linear and nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this dissertation. Emphasis is placed mainly on the analytical treatment of nonautonomous differential equations, which are challenging to solve despite the existent numerical and symbolic computational software programs available. Ideas from the transformation theory are adopted allowing one to solve the problems under consideration from a non-traditional perspective. First, the Cauchy initial value problem is considered for a class of nonautonomous and inhomogeneous linear diffusion-type equation on the entire real line. Explicit transformations are used to reduce the equations under study to their corresponding standard forms emphasizing on natural relations with certain Riccati(and/or Ermakov)-type systems. These relations give solvability results for the Cauchy problem of the parabolic equation considered. The superposition principle allows to solve formally this problem from an unconventional point of view. An eigenfunction expansion approach is also considered for this general evolution equation. Examples considered to corroborate the efficacy of the proposed solution methods include the Fokker-Planck equation, the Black-Scholes model and the one-factor Gaussian Hull-White model. The results obtained in the first part are used to solve the Cauchy initial value problem for certain inhomogeneous Burgers-type equation. The connection between linear (the Diffusion-type) and nonlinear (Burgers-type) parabolic equations is stress in order to establish a strong commutative relation. Traveling wave solutions of a nonautonomous Burgers equation are also investigated. Finally, it is constructed explicitly the minimum-uncertainty squeezed states for quantum harmonic oscillators. They are derived by the action of corresponding maximal kinematical invariance group on the standard ground state solution. It is shown that the product of the variances attains the required minimum value only at the instances that one variance is a minimum and the other is a maximum, when the squeezing of one of the variances occurs. Such explicit construction is possible due to the relation between the diffusion-type equation studied in the first part and the time-dependent Schrodinger equation. A modication of the radiation field operators for squeezed photons in a perfect cavity is also suggested with the help of a nonstandard solution of Heisenberg's equation of motion.
ContributorsVega-Guzmán, José Manuel, 1982- (Author) / Sulov, Sergei K (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Complex dynamical systems consisting interacting dynamical units are ubiquitous in nature and society. Predicting and reconstructing nonlinear dynamics of units and the complex interacting networks among them serves the base for the understanding of a variety of collective dynamical phenomena. I present a general method to address the two outstanding problems as a whole based solely on time-series measurements. The method is implemented by incorporating compressive sensing approach that enables an accurate reconstruction of complex dynamical systems in terms of both nodal equations that determines the self-dynamics of units and detailed coupling patterns among units. The representative advantages of the approach are (i) the sparse data requirement which allows for a successful reconstruction from limited measurements, and (ii) general applicability to identical and nonidentical nodal dynamics, and to networks with arbitrary interacting structure, strength and sizes. Another two challenging problem of significant interest in nonlinear dynamics: (i) predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems in advance of their occurrences and (ii) predicting the future state for time-varying nonlinear dynamical systems, can be formulated and solved in the framework of compressive sensing using only limited measurements. Once the network structure can be inferred, the dynamics behavior on them can be investigated, for example optimize information spreading dynamics, suppress cascading dynamics and traffic congestion, enhance synchronization, game dynamics, etc. The results can yield insights to control strategies design in the real-world social and natural systems. Since 2004, there has been a tremendous amount of interest in graphene. The most amazing feature of graphene is that there exists linear energy-momentum relationship when energy is low. The quasi-particles inside the system can be treated as chiral, massless Dirac fermions obeying relativistic quantum mechanics. Therefore, the graphene provides one perfect test bed to investigate relativistic quantum phenomena, such as relativistic quantum chaotic scattering and abnormal electron paths induced by klein tunneling. This phenomenon has profound implications to the development of graphene based devices that require stable electronic properties.
ContributorsYang, Rui (Author) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Thesis advisor) / Duman, Tolga M. (Committee member) / Akis, Richard (Committee member) / Huang, Liang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
What can classical chaos do to quantum systems is a fundamental issue highly relevant to a number of branches in physics. The field of quantum chaos has been active for three decades, where the focus was on non-relativistic quantumsystems described by the Schr¨odinger equation. By developing an efficient method to solve the Dirac equation in the setting where relativistic particles can tunnel between two symmetric cavities through a potential barrier, chaotic cavities are found to suppress the spread in the tunneling rate. Tunneling rate for any given energy assumes a wide range that increases with the energy for integrable classical dynamics. However, for chaotic underlying dynamics, the spread is greatly reduced. A remarkable feature, which is a consequence of Klein tunneling, arise only in relativistc quantum systems that substantial tunneling exists even for particle energy approaching zero. Similar results are found in graphene tunneling devices, implying high relevance of relativistic quantum chaos to the development of such devices. Wave propagation through random media occurs in many physical systems, where interesting phenomena such as branched, fracal-like wave patterns can arise. The generic origin of these wave structures is currently a matter of active debate. It is of fundamental interest to develop a minimal, paradigmaticmodel that can generate robust branched wave structures. In so doing, a general observation in all situations where branched structures emerge is non-Gaussian statistics of wave intensity with an algebraic tail in the probability density function. Thus, a universal algebraic wave-intensity distribution becomes the criterion for the validity of any minimal model of branched wave patterns. Coexistence of competing species in spatially extended ecosystems is key to biodiversity in nature. Understanding the dynamical mechanisms of coexistence is a fundamental problem of continuous interest not only in evolutionary biology but also in nonlinear science. A continuous model is proposed for cyclically competing species and the effect of the interplay between the interaction range and mobility on coexistence is investigated. A transition from coexistence to extinction is uncovered with a non-monotonic behavior in the coexistence probability and switches between spiral and plane-wave patterns arise. Strong mobility can either promote or hamper coexistence, while absent in lattice-based models, can be explained in terms of nonlinear partial differential equations.
ContributorsNi, Xuan (Author) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Liang (Committee member) / Yu, Hongbin (Committee member) / Akis, Richard (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
With an excessive amount of resources in the United States healthcare system being spent on the treatment of diseases that are largely preventable through lifestyle change, the need for successful physical activity interventions is apparent. Unfortunately an individual's physical activity and health goals are often not supported by the social context of their daily lives. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention through Text messaging for CoHabiting individuals (WalkIT CoHab), looks at the efficacy of a text based adaptive physical activity intervention to promote walking over a three month period and the effects of social support in intervention performance in three pairs of cohabiting pairs of individuals (n=6). Mean step increase from baseline to intervention ranged from 1300 to 3000 steps per day for all individuals, an average 45.87% increase in physical activity. Goal attainment during the intervention ranged from 43.96% to 71.43%, meaning all participants exceeded the 40% success rate predicted by 60th percentile goals. Social support scores for study partners, unlike social support scores for family and friends, were often in the high social support range and had a moderate increase from pre to post visits for most participants. Although there was variation amongst participants, there was a high correlation in physical activity trends and successful goal attainment in each pair of participants. Less ambitious percentile goals and more personalized motivational text messages might be beneficial to some participants. An extended intervention, something the majority of participants expressed interest in, would further support the efficacy of this behavioral intervention and allow for possible long term benefits of social support in the intervention to be investigated.
ContributorsFernandez, Jacqueline Alyssa (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Angadi, Siddhartha (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
An increasingly sedentary population in the United States, specifically with adolescents, is putting youth at risk of future health related trauma and disease. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention Through Text Messaging for Adolescents (WalkIT-A), was used to intervene with a 12-year old, physically inactive male, in an attempt to test the efficacy of a 12-week physical activity program that may help reduce health risks by increasing number of steps walked per day. The components of the intervention consisted of a FitBit Zip pedometer, physical activity education, text messages, monetary incentives, and goal setting that adapted personally to the participant. Mean step count increased by 30% from baseline (mean = 3603 [sd = 1983]) to intervention (mean = 4693 [sd = 2112]); then increased slightly by 6.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 5009 [sd = 2152]). Mean "very active minutes" increased by 45% from baseline (mean = 8.8 [sd = 8.9]) to intervention (mean = 12.8 [sd = 9.6]); then increased by 61.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 20.7 [sd = 8.4]). Weight, BMI, and blood pressure all increased modestly from pre to post. Cardiovascular fitness (estimated VO2 max) improved by 12.5% from pre (25.5ml*kg-1*min-1) to post (28.7ml*kg-1*min-1). The intervention appeared to have a delayed and residual effect on the participant's daily steps and very active minutes. Although the idealistic ABA pattern did not occur, and the participant did not meet the target of 11,500 daily steps, a positive trend toward that target behavior in the latter 1/3rd of the intervention was observed. Results suggest the need for an extended intervention over a longer period of time and customized even further to the participant.
ContributorsLamb, Nicholas Reid (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)
Created2014-12