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Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
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For autonomous systems, invariant manifold theory can be used to separate the system into dynamically distinct regions. Despite there being no equivalent method for nonautonomous systems, a similar analysis can be done. Systems with general time dependencies must resort to using finite-time transport barriers for partitioning; these barriers are the edges of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS), the analog to the stable and unstable manifolds of invariant manifold theory. Using the coherent structures of a flow to analyze the statistics of trapping, flight, and residence times, the signature of anomalous diffusion are obtained.
This research also investigates the use of linear models for approximating the elements of the covariance matrix of nonlinear flows, and then applying the covariance matrix approximation over coherent regions. The first and second-order moments can be used to fully describe an ensemble evolution in linear systems, however there is no direct method for nonlinear systems. The problem is only compounded by the fact that the moments for nonlinear flows typically don't have analytic representations, therefore direct numerical simulations would be needed to obtain the moments throughout the domain. To circumvent these many computations, the nonlinear system is approximated as many linear systems for which analytic expressions for the moments exist. The parameters introduced in the linear models are obtained locally from the nonlinear deformation tensor.
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This work aims to understand how the community layer, represented by the food environment, moderates the association of two other layers and dietary behaviors: the interpersonal layer, represented by receiving health care provider’s (HCP) advice to lose weight, and the policy layer, represented by participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and a policy change within the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
Participant data were obtained from a household telephone survey of 2,211 adults in four cities in New Jersey from two cross-sectional panels in 2009-10 and 2014. Community food data were purchased and classified according to previously established protocol. Interaction and stratified analyses determined the differences in the association between HCP advice, SNAP participation, and time (for WIC participants) and eating behaviors by the food environment.
Interaction and stratified analyses revealed that HCP advice was associated with a decrease in SSB consumption when participants lived near a small grocery store, or far from a supermarket, limited service restaurant (LSR), or convenience store. SNAP participation was associated with a higher SSB consumption when respondents lived close to a small grocery store, supermarket, and LSR. There were no differences in fruit and vegetable consumption between two time points among WIC participants, or by food outlet.
The food environment, part of the community layer of SEM, moderated the relationship between the interpersonal layer and dietary behaviors and the policy layer and dietary behaviors. The association between HCP advice and dietary behaviors and SNAP participation and dietary behaviors were both influenced by the food environment in which participants lived.
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Methods: Study participants (n=1469) were elementary and middle school students who ate school lunch on the day of data collection. Photographs and weights (to nearest 2 g) were taken of fruits and vegetables on students’ trays before and after lunch. Trained research assistants viewed photographs and sorted trays into variable categories: color of main tray, presence/absence of secondary fruit/vegetable container, and color of secondary fruit/vegetable container. Fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste were calculated using tray weights. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for gender, grade level, race/ethnicity, free/reduced price lunch status, and within-school similarities were used to examine relationships between tray color and fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste.
Results: Findings indicated that students with a light tray selected (IRR= 0.44), consumed (IRR=0.73) and wasted (IRR=0.81) less fruit and vegetables. Students without a secondary fruit/vegetable container selected (IRR=0.66) and consumed (IRR=0.49) less fruit and vegetables compared to those with a secondary container. Light or clear secondary fruit and vegetable containers were related to increased selection (IRR=2.06 light, 2.30 clear) and consumption (IRR=1.95 light, 2.78 clear) compared to dark secondary containers, while light secondary containers were related to decreased waste (IRR= 0.57).
Conclusion: Tray color may influence fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste among students eating school lunch. Further research is needed to determine if there is a cause and effect relationship. If so, adjusting container colors may be a practical intervention for schools hoping to increase fruit and vegetable intake among students.
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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to understand how implementing EIM influenced provider behaviors in a university-based healthcare system, using a process evaluation.
Methods: A multiple baseline, time series design was used. Providers were allocated to three groups. Group 1 (n=11) was exposed to an electronic medical record (EMR) systems change, EIM-related resources, and EIM training session. Group 2 (n=5) received the EMR change and resources but no training. Group 3 (n=6) was only exposed to the systems change. The study was conducted across three phases. Outcomes included asking about patient physical activity (PA) as a vital sign (PAVS), prescribing PA (ExRx), and providing PA resources or referrals. Patient surveys and EMR data were examined. Time series analysis, chi-square, and logistic regression were used.
Results: Patient survey data revealed the systems change increased patient reports of being asked about PA, χ2(4) = 95.47, p < .001 for all groups. There was a significant effect of training and resource dissemination on patients receiving PA advice, χ2(4) = 36.25, p < .001. Patients receiving PA advice was greater during phase 2 (OR = 4.7, 95% CI = 2.0-11.0) and phase 3 (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.2-7.4). Increases were also observed in EMR data for PAVS, χ2(2) = 29.27, p <. 001 during implementation for all groups. Increases in PA advice χ2(2) = 140.90, p < .001 occurred among trained providers only. No statistically significant change was observed for ExRx, PA resources or PA referrals. However, visual analysis showed an upwards trend among trained providers.
Conclusions: An EMR systems change is effective for increasing the collection of the PAVS. Training and resources may influence provider behavior but training alone increased provider documentation. The low levels of documented outcomes for PA advice, ExRx, resources, or referrals may be due to the limitations of the EMR system. This approach was effective for examining the EIM Solution and scaled-up, longer trials may yield more robust results.
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prostate cancer is most commonly treated with hormonal therapy. The idea behind
hormonal therapy is to reduce androgen production, which prostate cancer cells
require for growth. Recently, the exploration of the synergistic effects of the drugs
used in hormonal therapy has begun. The aim was to build off of these recent
advancements and further refine the synergistic drug model. The advancements I
implement come by addressing biological shortcomings and improving the model’s
internal mechanistic structure. The drug families being modeled, anti-androgens,
and gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs, interact with androgen production in a
way that is not completely understood in the scientific community. Thus the models
representing the drugs show progress through their ability to capture their effect
on serum androgen. Prostate-specific antigen is the primary biomarker for prostate
cancer and is generally how population models on the subject are validated. Fitting
the model to clinical data and comparing it to other clinical models through the
ability to fit and forecast prostate-specific antigen and serum androgen is how this
improved model achieves validation. The improved model results further suggest that
the drugs’ dynamics should be considered in adaptive therapy for prostate cancer.
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Forecasts of noise pollution from a highway line segment noise source are obtained from a sound propagation model utilizing effective sound speed profiles derived from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) limited area forecast with 1 km horizontal resolution and near-ground vertical resolution finer than 20 m. Methods for temporal along with horizontal and vertical spatial nesting are demonstrated within the NWP model for maintaining forecast feasibility. It is shown that vertical nesting can improve the prediction of finer structures in near-ground temperature and velocity profiles, such as morning temperature inversions and low level jet-like features. Accurate representation of these features is shown to be important for modeling sound refraction phenomena and for enabling accurate noise assessment. Comparisons are made using the parabolic equation model for predictions with profiles derived from NWP simulations and from field experiment observations during mornings on November 7 and 8, 2006 in Phoenix, Arizona. The challenges faced in simulating accurate meteorological profiles at high resolution for sound propagation applications are highlighted and areas for possible improvement are discussed.