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Effect of a Wii Fit® intervention on balance, muscular fitness, and bone health in middle-aged women
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
This work aims to understand how the community layer, represented by the food environment, moderates the association of two other layers and dietary behaviors: the interpersonal layer, represented by receiving health care provider’s (HCP) advice to lose weight, and the policy layer, represented by participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and a policy change within the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
Participant data were obtained from a household telephone survey of 2,211 adults in four cities in New Jersey from two cross-sectional panels in 2009-10 and 2014. Community food data were purchased and classified according to previously established protocol. Interaction and stratified analyses determined the differences in the association between HCP advice, SNAP participation, and time (for WIC participants) and eating behaviors by the food environment.
Interaction and stratified analyses revealed that HCP advice was associated with a decrease in SSB consumption when participants lived near a small grocery store, or far from a supermarket, limited service restaurant (LSR), or convenience store. SNAP participation was associated with a higher SSB consumption when respondents lived close to a small grocery store, supermarket, and LSR. There were no differences in fruit and vegetable consumption between two time points among WIC participants, or by food outlet.
The food environment, part of the community layer of SEM, moderated the relationship between the interpersonal layer and dietary behaviors and the policy layer and dietary behaviors. The association between HCP advice and dietary behaviors and SNAP participation and dietary behaviors were both influenced by the food environment in which participants lived.
Methods: Study participants (n=1469) were elementary and middle school students who ate school lunch on the day of data collection. Photographs and weights (to nearest 2 g) were taken of fruits and vegetables on students’ trays before and after lunch. Trained research assistants viewed photographs and sorted trays into variable categories: color of main tray, presence/absence of secondary fruit/vegetable container, and color of secondary fruit/vegetable container. Fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste were calculated using tray weights. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for gender, grade level, race/ethnicity, free/reduced price lunch status, and within-school similarities were used to examine relationships between tray color and fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste.
Results: Findings indicated that students with a light tray selected (IRR= 0.44), consumed (IRR=0.73) and wasted (IRR=0.81) less fruit and vegetables. Students without a secondary fruit/vegetable container selected (IRR=0.66) and consumed (IRR=0.49) less fruit and vegetables compared to those with a secondary container. Light or clear secondary fruit and vegetable containers were related to increased selection (IRR=2.06 light, 2.30 clear) and consumption (IRR=1.95 light, 2.78 clear) compared to dark secondary containers, while light secondary containers were related to decreased waste (IRR= 0.57).
Conclusion: Tray color may influence fruit and vegetable selection, consumption, and waste among students eating school lunch. Further research is needed to determine if there is a cause and effect relationship. If so, adjusting container colors may be a practical intervention for schools hoping to increase fruit and vegetable intake among students.
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to understand how implementing EIM influenced provider behaviors in a university-based healthcare system, using a process evaluation.
Methods: A multiple baseline, time series design was used. Providers were allocated to three groups. Group 1 (n=11) was exposed to an electronic medical record (EMR) systems change, EIM-related resources, and EIM training session. Group 2 (n=5) received the EMR change and resources but no training. Group 3 (n=6) was only exposed to the systems change. The study was conducted across three phases. Outcomes included asking about patient physical activity (PA) as a vital sign (PAVS), prescribing PA (ExRx), and providing PA resources or referrals. Patient surveys and EMR data were examined. Time series analysis, chi-square, and logistic regression were used.
Results: Patient survey data revealed the systems change increased patient reports of being asked about PA, χ2(4) = 95.47, p < .001 for all groups. There was a significant effect of training and resource dissemination on patients receiving PA advice, χ2(4) = 36.25, p < .001. Patients receiving PA advice was greater during phase 2 (OR = 4.7, 95% CI = 2.0-11.0) and phase 3 (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.2-7.4). Increases were also observed in EMR data for PAVS, χ2(2) = 29.27, p <. 001 during implementation for all groups. Increases in PA advice χ2(2) = 140.90, p < .001 occurred among trained providers only. No statistically significant change was observed for ExRx, PA resources or PA referrals. However, visual analysis showed an upwards trend among trained providers.
Conclusions: An EMR systems change is effective for increasing the collection of the PAVS. Training and resources may influence provider behavior but training alone increased provider documentation. The low levels of documented outcomes for PA advice, ExRx, resources, or referrals may be due to the limitations of the EMR system. This approach was effective for examining the EIM Solution and scaled-up, longer trials may yield more robust results.
Background: While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957–1958 were also examined.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5–14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957–1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08–1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.