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Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Recent studies suggest a role for the microbiota in autism spectrum disorders (ASD), potentially arising from their role in modulating the immune system and gastrointestinal (GI) function or from gut–brain interactions dependent or independent from the immune system. GI problems such as chronic constipation and/or diarrhea are common in children with ASD, and significantly worsen their behavior and their quality of life. Here we first summarize previously published data supporting that GI dysfunction is common in individuals with ASD and the role of the microbiota in ASD. Second, by comparing with other publically available microbiome datasets, we provide some evidence that the shifted microbiota can be a result of westernization and that this shift could also be framing an altered immune system. Third, we explore the possibility that gut–brain interactions could also be a direct result of microbially produced metabolites.
The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) virus has had severe impacts on college students' ways of life. To examine how students were coping and perceiving the Covid-19 pandemic, a secondary analysis of an online survey across the three Arizona public universities investigated students’ knowledge about Covid-19, engagement with preventive strategies, pandemic preparedness and gauged their risk perception. Results from our analysis indicate that the students were knowledgeable about Covid-19 and were changing their habits and engaging with preventive measures. Results further suggest that students were prepared for the pandemic in terms of resources and were exhibiting high-risk perceptions. The data also revealed that students who were being cautious and engaging with preventive behaviors had a higher risk-perception than individuals who were not. As for individuals who were prepared for the pandemic in terms of supplies, their risk perception was similar to those who did not have supplies. Individuals who were prepared and capable of providing a single caretaker to tend to their sick household members and isolate them in a separate room had a higher risk perception than those who could not. These results can help describe how college students will react to a future significant event, what resources students may be in need of, and how universities can take additional steps to keep their students safe and healthy. The results from this study and recommendations will provide for a stronger and more understanding campus community during times of distress and can improve upon already established university protocols for health crises and even natural disasters.