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Spatial spread of rabies in wildlife

Description

Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a…

Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.

ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

The differences in correlates of physical activity between a sample of non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites with arthritis

Description

Purpose: To examine: (1) whether Non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB) and Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) with diagnosed arthritis differed in self-reported physical activity (PA) levels, (2) if NHB and NHW with arthritis differed on potential correlates of PA based on the Social Ecological Model (Mcleroy et al., 1988), and (3) if PA participation…

Purpose: To examine: (1) whether Non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB) and Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) with diagnosed arthritis differed in self-reported physical activity (PA) levels, (2) if NHB and NHW with arthritis differed on potential correlates of PA based on the Social Ecological Model (Mcleroy et al., 1988), and (3) if PA participation varied by race/ethnicity after controlling for age, gender, education, and BMI. Methods: This study was a secondary data analysis of data collected from 2006-2008 in Chicago, IL as part of the Midwest Roybal Center for Health Promotion. Bivariate analyses were used to assess potential differences between race in meeting either ACR or ACSM PA guidelines. Comparisons by race between potential socio-demographic correlates and meeting physical activity guidelines were assessed using Chi-squares. Potential differences by race in psychosocial, arthritis, and health-related and environmental correlates were assessed using T-tests. Finally, logistic regression analyses were used to examine if race was still associated with PA after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Results: A greater proportion of NHW (68.1% and 35.3%) than NHB (46.5% and 20.9%) met both the arthritis-specific and the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) recommendations for physical activity, respectively. NHB had significantly lower self-efficacy for exercise and reported greater impairments in physical function compared to NHW. Likewise, NHB reported more crime and less aesthetics within their neighborhood. NHW were 2.56 times more likely to meet arthritis-specific PA guidelines than NHB after controlling for age, gender, education, marital status, and BMI. In contrast, after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, age and gender were the only significant predictors of meeting ACSM PA guidelines. Discussion: There were significant differences between NHB and NHW individuals with arthritis in meeting PA guidelines. After controlling for age, gender, education, and BMI non-Hispanic White individuals were still significantly more likely to meet PA guidelines. Interventions aimed at promoting higher levels of physical activity among individuals with arthritis need to consider neighborhood aesthetics and crime when designing programs. More arthritis-specific programs are needed in close proximity to neighborhoods in an effort to promote physical activity.

ContributorsChuran, Christopher (Author) / Der Ananian, Cheryl (Thesis advisor) / Adams, Marc (Committee member) / Campbell, Kathryn (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

A chemostat model of bacteriophage-bacteria interaction with infinite distributed delays

Description

Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both…

Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.

ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012

Computational study of the cone-horizontal cell feedback mechanism in the outer-plexiform layer of cat retina

Description

In vertebrate outer retina, changes in the membrane potential of horizontal cells affect the calcium influx and glutamate release of cone photoreceptors via a negative feedback. This feedback has a number of important physiological consequences. One is called background-induced flicker enhancement (BIFE) in which the onset of dim background enhances…

In vertebrate outer retina, changes in the membrane potential of horizontal cells affect the calcium influx and glutamate release of cone photoreceptors via a negative feedback. This feedback has a number of important physiological consequences. One is called background-induced flicker enhancement (BIFE) in which the onset of dim background enhances the center flicker response of horizontal cells. The underlying mechanism for the feedback is still unclear but competing hypotheses have been proposed. One is the GABA hypothesis, which states that the feedback is mediated by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), an inhibitory neurotransmitter released from horizontal cells. Another is the ephaptic hypothesis, which contends that the feedback is non-GABAergic and is achieved through the modulation of electrical potential in the intersynaptic cleft between cones and horizontal cells. In this study, a continuum spine model of the cone-horizontal cell synaptic circuitry is formulated. This model, a partial differential equation system, incorporates both the GABA and ephaptic feedback mechanisms. Simulation results, in comparison with experiments, indicate that the ephaptic mechanism is necessary in order for the model to capture the major spatial and temporal dynamics of the BIFE effect. In addition, simulations indicate that the GABA mechanism may play some minor modulation role.

ContributorsChang, Shaojie (Author) / Baer, Steven M. (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl L (Thesis advisor) / Crook, Sharon M (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012

WalkIT CoHab: Walking Intervention through Texting Study of Cohabiting Individuals

Description

With an excessive amount of resources in the United States healthcare system being spent on the treatment of diseases that are largely preventable through lifestyle change, the need for successful physical activity interventions is apparent. Unfortunately an individual's physical activity and health goals are often not supported by the social…

With an excessive amount of resources in the United States healthcare system being spent on the treatment of diseases that are largely preventable through lifestyle change, the need for successful physical activity interventions is apparent. Unfortunately an individual's physical activity and health goals are often not supported by the social context of their daily lives. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention through Text messaging for CoHabiting individuals (WalkIT CoHab), looks at the efficacy of a text based adaptive physical activity intervention to promote walking over a three month period and the effects of social support in intervention performance in three pairs of cohabiting pairs of individuals (n=6). Mean step increase from baseline to intervention ranged from 1300 to 3000 steps per day for all individuals, an average 45.87% increase in physical activity. Goal attainment during the intervention ranged from 43.96% to 71.43%, meaning all participants exceeded the 40% success rate predicted by 60th percentile goals. Social support scores for study partners, unlike social support scores for family and friends, were often in the high social support range and had a moderate increase from pre to post visits for most participants. Although there was variation amongst participants, there was a high correlation in physical activity trends and successful goal attainment in each pair of participants. Less ambitious percentile goals and more personalized motivational text messages might be beneficial to some participants. An extended intervention, something the majority of participants expressed interest in, would further support the efficacy of this behavioral intervention and allow for possible long term benefits of social support in the intervention to be investigated.

ContributorsFernandez, Jacqueline Alyssa (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Angadi, Siddhartha (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)

Created2015-05

An Adaptive Physical Activity Intervention for Inactive Adolescents: A Single Case Design

Description

An increasingly sedentary population in the United States, specifically with adolescents, is putting youth at risk of future health related trauma and disease. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention Through Text Messaging for Adolescents (WalkIT-A), was used to intervene with a 12-year old, physically inactive male, in an attempt to…

An increasingly sedentary population in the United States, specifically with adolescents, is putting youth at risk of future health related trauma and disease. This single-case design study, Walking Intervention Through Text Messaging for Adolescents (WalkIT-A), was used to intervene with a 12-year old, physically inactive male, in an attempt to test the efficacy of a 12-week physical activity program that may help reduce health risks by increasing number of steps walked per day. The components of the intervention consisted of a FitBit Zip pedometer, physical activity education, text messages, monetary incentives, and goal setting that adapted personally to the participant. Mean step count increased by 30% from baseline (mean = 3603 [sd = 1983]) to intervention (mean = 4693 [sd = 2112]); then increased slightly by 6.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 5009 [sd = 2152]). Mean "very active minutes" increased by 45% from baseline (mean = 8.8 [sd = 8.9]) to intervention (mean = 12.8 [sd = 9.6]); then increased by 61.7% from intervention to withdrawal (mean = 20.7 [sd = 8.4]). Weight, BMI, and blood pressure all increased modestly from pre to post. Cardiovascular fitness (estimated VO2 max) improved by 12.5% from pre (25.5ml*kg-1*min-1) to post (28.7ml*kg-1*min-1). The intervention appeared to have a delayed and residual effect on the participant's daily steps and very active minutes. Although the idealistic ABA pattern did not occur, and the participant did not meet the target of 11,500 daily steps, a positive trend toward that target behavior in the latter 1/3rd of the intervention was observed. Results suggest the need for an extended intervention over a longer period of time and customized even further to the participant.

ContributorsLamb, Nicholas Reid (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)

Created2014-12

Predicting Glioblastoma Growth Using a Poisson Process

Description

In this research we consider stochastic models of Glioblastoma Multiforme brain tumors. We first look at a model by K. Swanson et al., which describes the dynamics as random diffusion plus deterministic logistic growth. We introduce a stochastic component in the logistic growth in the form of a random growth…

In this research we consider stochastic models of Glioblastoma Multiforme brain tumors. We first look at a model by K. Swanson et al., which describes the dynamics as random diffusion plus deterministic logistic growth. We introduce a stochastic component in the logistic growth in the form of a random growth rate defined by a Poisson process. We show that this stochastic logistic growth model leads to a more accurate evaluation of the tumor growth compared its deterministic counterpart. We also discuss future plans to incorporate individual patient geometry, extend the model to three dimensions and to incorporate effects of different treatments into our model, in collaboration with a local hospital.

ContributorsManning, Michael Clare (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Letters and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)

Created2013-12

Prompt-To-Action Text Messages For Increasing Physical Activity

Description

The WalkIT Study is a mobile health study examining the efficacy of a four month text message-based intervention for increasing physical activity among 96 overweight adults. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the potency of the different types of motivational prompt-to-action text messages used in the WalkIT Study…

The WalkIT Study is a mobile health study examining the efficacy of a four month text message-based intervention for increasing physical activity among 96 overweight adults. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the potency of the different types of motivational prompt-to-action text messages used in the WalkIT Study for increasing steps per day by examining the individual messages, creating qualitative themes and comparing themed groups, and evaluating the interaction between demographic subgroups and themed groups. A total of nine themes was created. The results found that Message 13, “It doesn't matter how old you are â€“ it's never too early or too late to become physically active so start today; only then will you start to see results!”, had the highest median step count (7129 steps) and Message 71, “It's ok if you can't reach your goal today. Just push yourself more tomorrow.”, had the lowest median step count (5054 steps). For themes, the highest median step count (6640 steps) was found in Theme 6, Challenges, and the lowest median step count (5450 steps) was found in Theme 9, Unconditional Feedback. Theme 6 (Challenges) had the highest median step count for females, Theme 7 (Everyday Tips) had the highest median step count for males, Theme 4 (Nutrition) had the highest median step count for the 18-42 group, Theme 6 (Challenges) had the highest median step count for the 43-61 group, and Theme 9 (Unconditional Feedback) had the lowest median step count for both genders and both age groups. The results suggest the usefulness of analyzing the effectiveness of individual motivational text messages, themes, and the interaction between demographic groups and themes in physical activity interventions.

ContributorsBhuiyan, Nishat Anjum (Author) / Adams, Marc (Thesis director) / Ainsworth, Barbara (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor)

Created2015-05

Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate

Description

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed…

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.

Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

ContributorsPettiti, Diana B. (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Yang, Shuo (Author) / Harlan, Sharon L. (Author) / Chowell, Gerardo (Author)

Created2016-02-01

Challenges Associated with Projecting Urbanization-Induced Heat-Related Mortality

Description

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed…

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.

Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).

Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.

ContributorsHondula, David M. (Author) / Georgescu, Matei (Author) / Balling, Jr., Robert C. (Author)

Created2014-04-28