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Description
Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer–resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer–resource type system of a population of individuals classified by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are affected by particularly devastating overly adapted populations, namely cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.
ContributorsKareva, Irina (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-02-01
Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
When viewing vitamins and minerals, it is seen that they are essential for human life and vital for pregnancy. When paired with a healthy diet, prenatal supplements can allow for a healthy pregnancy and reduced maternal and infant health problems. Within this thesis, I was able to break down each vitamin and mineral necessary for a healthy pregnancy and birth. Further, I had the opportunity to dive into the addition of Omega-3 Fatty Acid during pregnancy to add more evidence to the study.
ContributorsSaad, Sophia Saad (Author) / Adams, James (Thesis director) / Haiwei, Gu (Committee member) / Coleman, Devon (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Background
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
ContributorsMoreno Martinez, Victor (Author) / Espinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author) / Barley, Kamal (Author) / Paredes Gutierrez, Marlio (Author) / Bichara, Derdei (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2017-01-11
Description
Graphene has the ability to advance many common fields, including: membranes, composites and coatings, energy, and electronics. For membranes, graphene will be used as a filter for desalination plants which will reduce the cost of desalination and greatly increase water security in developing countries. For composites and coatings, graphene's strength, flexibility, and lightweight will be instrumental in producing the next generation of athletic wear and sports equipment. Graphene's use in energy comes from its theorized ability to charge a phone battery in seconds or an electric car in minutes. Finally, for electronics, graphene will be used to create faster transistors, flexible electronics, and fully integrated wearable technology.
ContributorsSiegel, Adam (Author) / Adams, James (Thesis director) / Krause, Stephen (Committee member) / Materials Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This is a two-part thesis, completed in conjunction with my Materials Science and Engineering Capstone Project. The first part involves the design and testing of cold-extruded high-density polyethylene for student oboe reeds. The goal of this section was to create a longer-lasting reed that produces a similar sound to a cane reed, has less variation in quality, and costs less per year than cane reeds. For low-income students in particular, the cost of purchasing cane oboe reeds ($500-$2,000 per year) is simply not feasible. This project was designed to allow oboe to be a more affordable option for all students. Money should not be a factor that limits whether or a not a child is able to explore their interests. The process used to create the synthetic reed prototype involves cold-extrusion of high-density polyethylene in order to induce orientation in the polymer to replicate the uniaxial orientation of fibrous cane. After successful cold-extrusion of a high-density polyethylene (HDPE) cylinder, the sample was made into a reed by following standard reedmaking procedures. Then, the HDPE reed and a cane reed were quantitatively tested for various qualities, including flexural modulus, hardness, and free vibration frequency. The results from the design project are promising and show a successful proof of concept. The first prototype of an oriented HDPE reed demonstrates characteristics of a cane reed. The areas that need the most improvement are the flexural modulus and the stability of the higher overtones, but these areas can be improved with further development of the cold-extrusion process. The second part of this thesis is a survey and analysis focusing on the qualitative comparison of synthetic and cane oboe reeds. The study can be used in the future to refine the design of synthetic reeds, more specifically the cold-extruded high-density polyethylene student oboe reed I designed, to best replicate a cane reed. Rather than approaching this study from a purely engineering mindset, I brought in my own experience as an oboist. Therefore, the opinions of oboists who have a wide range of experience are considered in the survey. A panel of five oboists participated in the survey. They provided their opinion on various aspects of the five reeds, including vibrancy, response, stability, resistance, tone, and overall quality. Each of these metrics are rated on a scale from one to five, from unacceptable to performance quality. According to the survey, a participant's personal, hand-made cane reed is overall the most preferred option. My prototype HDPE student reed must be improved in many areas in order to rank near the other four reeds. However, its vibrancy and resistance already rival that of a Jones student reed. As this is just the first prototype, that is a significant accomplishment. With further refinement of the cold-extrusion and reedmaking method, the other areas of the HDPE reed may be improved, and the reed may eventually compete with the existing synthetic and cane reeds on the market.
ContributorsMitchell, Alexis Jacqueline (Author) / Adams, James (Thesis director) / Schuring, Martin (Committee member) / School of Music (Contributor) / Materials Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The gastrointestinal (GI) tract is home to a complex and diverse microbial ecosystem that contributes to health or disease in many aspects. While bacterial species are the majority in the GI tract, their cohabitants, fungal species, should not be forgotten. Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often suffer from GI disorders and associated symptoms, implying a role the bacterial and fungal gut microbiota play in maintaining human health. The irregularities in GI symptoms can negatively affect the overall quality of life or even worsen behavioral symptoms the children present. Even with the increase in the availability of next-generation sequencing technologies, the composition and diversities of fungal microbiotas are understudied, especially in the context of ASD. We therefore aimed to investigate the gut mycobiota of 36 neurotypical children and 38 children with ASD. We obtained stool samples from all participants, as well as autism severity and GI symptom scores to help us understand the effect the mycobiome has on these symptoms. By targeting the fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and bacterial 16S rRNA V4 regions, we obtained fungal and bacterial amplicon sequences, from which we investigated the diversities, composition, and potential link between two different ecological clades. From fungal amplicon sequencing results, we observed a significant decrease in the observed fungal OTUs in children with ASD, implying a lack of potentially beneficial fungi in ASD subjects. We performed Bray-Curtis principal coordinates analysis and observed significant differences in fungal microbiota composition between the two groups. Taxonomic analysis showed higher relative abundances of Candida , Pichia, Penicillium , and Exophiala in ASD subjects, yet due to a large dispersion of data, the differences were not statistically significant. Interestingly, we observed a bimodal distribution of Candida abundances within children with ASD. Candida's relative abundance was not significantly correlated with GI scores, but children with high Candida relative abundances presented significantly higher Autism Treatment Evaluation Checklist (ATEC) scores, suggesting a role of Candida on ASD behavioral symptoms. Regarding the bacterial gut microbiota, we found marginally lower observed OTUs and significantly lower relative abundance of Prevotella in the ASD group, which was consistent with previous studies. Taken together, we demonstrated that autism is closely linked with a distinct gut mycobiota, characterized by a loss of fungal and bacterial diversity and an altered fungal and bacterial composition.
ContributorsPatel, Jigar (Author) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Thesis director) / Kang, Dae Wook (Committee member) / Adams, James (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
As the prevalence and awareness of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) increases, so does the variety of treatment options for primary symptoms (social interaction, communication, behavior) and secondary symptoms (anxiety, hyperactivity, GI problems, and insomnia). Various treatments, from Adderall to Citalopram to Flax Seed Oil promise relief for these symptoms. However, very little research has actually been done on some of these treatments. Additionally, the research that has been done fails to compare these treatments against one another in terms of symptom relief. The Autism Treatment Effectiveness Survey, written by Dr. James Adams, director of the Autism/Asperger's Research Program at ASU, and graduate student/program coordinator Devon Coleman, aims to fill this gap. The survey numerically rates medications based on benefit and adverse effects, in addition to naming specific symptoms that are impacted by the treatments. However, the survey itself was retrospective in nature and requires further evidence to support its claims. Therefore, the purpose of this research paper is to evaluate evidence related to the results of the survey. After the performing an extensive literature review of over 70 different treatments, it appears that the findings of the Autism Treatment Effectiveness Survey are generally well supported. There were a few minor discrepancies regarding the primary benefitted symptom, but there was not enough of a conflict to discount the information from the survey. As research is still ongoing, conclusions cannot yet be drawn for Nutritional Supplements, although the current data looks promising.
ContributorsAnderson, Amy Lynn (Author) / Adams, James (Thesis director) / Coleman, Devon (Committee member) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05