In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.
The ASU COVID-19 testing lab process was developed to operate as the primary testing site for all ASU staff, students, and specified external individuals. Tests are collected at various collection sites, including a walk-in site at the SDFC and various drive-up sites on campus; analysis is conducted on ASU campus and results are distributed virtually to all patients via the Health Services patient portal. The following is a literature review on past implementations of various process improvement techniques and how they can be applied to the ABCTL testing process to achieve laboratory goals. (abstract)
As a case study, this thesis develops methods for the analysis of large amounts of data generated from a simulated ecosystem designed to understand how mammalian biomechanics interact with environmental complexity to modulate the outcomes of predator–prey interactions. These simulations investigate how other biomechanical parameters relating to the agility of animals in predator–prey pairs are better predictors of pursuit outcomes. Traditional modelling techniques such as forward, backward, and stepwise variable selection are initially used to study these data, but the number of parameters and potentially relevant interaction effects render these methods impractical. Consequently, new modelling techniques such as LASSO regularization are used and compared to the traditional techniques in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. Finally, the splitting rules and instances in the leaves of classification trees provide the basis for future simulation with an economical number of additional runs. In general, this thesis shows the increased utility of these sophisticated statistical techniques with simulated ecological data compared to the approaches traditionally used in these fields. These techniques combined with methods from industrial Design of Experiments will help ecologists extract novel insights from simulations that combine habitat complexity, population structure, and biomechanics.
Ultimate Frisbee or "Ultimate," is a fast growing field sport that is being played competitively at universities across the country. Many mid-tier college teams have the goal of winning as many games as possible, however they also need to grow their program by training and retaining new players. The purpose of this project was to create a prototype statistical tool that maximizes a player line-up's probability of scoring the next point, while having as equal playing time across all experienced and novice players as possible. Game, player, and team data was collected for 25 different games played over the course of 4 tournaments during Fall 2017 and early Spring 2018 using the UltiAnalytics iPad application. "Amount of Top 1/3 Players" was the measure of equal playing time, and "Line Efficiency" and "Line Interaction" represented a line's probability of scoring. After running a logistic regression, Line Efficiency was found to be the more accurate predictor of scoring outcome than Line Interaction. An "Equal PT Measure vs. Line Efficiency" graph was then created and the plot showed what the optimal lines were depending on what the user's preferences were at that point in time. Possible next steps include testing the model and refining it as needed.
The U.S. Navy and other amphibious military organizations utilize a derivation of the traditional side stroke called the Combat Side Stroke, or CSS, and tout it as the most efficient technique available. Citing its low aerobic requirements and slow yet powerful movements as superior to the traditionally-best front crawl (freestyle), the CSS is the go-to stroke for any operation in the water. The purpose of this thesis is to apply principles of Industrial Engineering to a real-world situation not typically approached from a perspective of optimization. I will analyze pre-existing data about various swim strokes in order to compare them in terms of efficiency for different variables. These variables include calories burned, speed, and strokes per unit distance, as well as their interactions. Calories will be measured by heart rate monitors, converting BPM to calories burned. Speed will be measured by stopwatch and observer. Strokes per unit distance will be measured by observer. The strokes to be analyzed include the breast stroke, crawl stroke, butterfly, and combat side stroke. The goal is to informally test the U.S. Navy's claim that the combat side stroke is the optimum stroke to conserve energy while covering distance. Because of limitations in the scope of the project, analysis will be done using data collected from literary sources rather than through experimentation. This thesis will include a design of experiment to test the findings here in practical study. The main method of analysis will be linear programming, followed by hypothesis testing, culminating in a design of experiment for future progress on this topic.
The first step in process improvement is to scope the problem, next is measure the current process, but if data is not readily available and cannot be manually collected, then a measurement system must be implemented. General Dynamics Mission Systems (GDMS) is a lean company that is always seeking to improve. One of their current bottlenecks is the incoming inspection department. This department is responsible for finding defects on parts purchased and is critical to the high reliability product produced by GDMS. To stay competitive and hold their market share, a decision was made to optimize incoming inspection. This proved difficult because no data is being collected. Early steps in many process improvement methodologies, such as Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC), include data collection; however, no measurement system was in place, resulting in no available data for improvement. The solution to this problem was to design and implement a Management Information System (MIS) that will track a variety of data. This will provide the company with data that will be used for analysis and improvement. The first stage of the MIS was developed in Microsoft Excel with Visual Basic for Applications because of the low cost and overall effectiveness of the software. Excel allows update to be made quickly, and allows GDMS to collect data immediately. Stage two would be moving the MIS to a more practicable software, such as Access or MySQL. This thesis is only focuses on stage one of the MIS, and GDMS will proceed with stage two.