Matching Items (81)
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Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative

Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
Created2015-12-01
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Description
Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily

Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer–resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer–resource type system of a population of individuals classified by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are affected by particularly devastating overly adapted populations, namely cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.
Created2015-02-01
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Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only

Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
Created2015-06-11
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Description
Background
Grading schemes for breast cancer diagnosis are predominantly based on pathologists' qualitative assessment of altered nuclear structure from 2D brightfield microscopy images. However, cells are three-dimensional (3D) objects with features that are inherently 3D and thus poorly characterized in 2D. Our goal is to quantitatively characterize nuclear structure in 3D,

Background
Grading schemes for breast cancer diagnosis are predominantly based on pathologists' qualitative assessment of altered nuclear structure from 2D brightfield microscopy images. However, cells are three-dimensional (3D) objects with features that are inherently 3D and thus poorly characterized in 2D. Our goal is to quantitatively characterize nuclear structure in 3D, assess its variation with malignancy, and investigate whether such variation correlates with standard nuclear grading criteria.
Methodology
We applied micro-optical computed tomographic imaging and automated 3D nuclear morphometry to quantify and compare morphological variations between human cell lines derived from normal, benign fibrocystic or malignant breast epithelium. To reproduce the appearance and contrast in clinical cytopathology images, we stained cells with hematoxylin and eosin and obtained 3D images of 150 individual stained cells of each cell type at sub-micron, isotropic resolution. Applying volumetric image analyses, we computed 42 3D morphological and textural descriptors of cellular and nuclear structure.
Principal Findings
We observed four distinct nuclear shape categories, the predominant being a mushroom cap shape. Cell and nuclear volumes increased from normal to fibrocystic to metastatic type, but there was little difference in the volume ratio of nucleus to cytoplasm (N/C ratio) between the lines. Abnormal cell nuclei had more nucleoli, markedly higher density and clumpier chromatin organization compared to normal. Nuclei of non-tumorigenic, fibrocystic cells exhibited larger textural variations than metastatic cell nuclei. At p<0.0025 by ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis tests, 90% of our computed descriptors statistically differentiated control from abnormal cell populations, but only 69% of these features statistically differentiated the fibrocystic from the metastatic cell populations.
Conclusions
Our results provide a new perspective on nuclear structure variations associated with malignancy and point to the value of automated quantitative 3D nuclear morphometry as an objective tool to enable development of sensitive and specific nuclear grade classification in breast cancer diagnosis.
Created2012-01-05
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Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic,

Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Created2011-03-24
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Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in

Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Created2015-07-02
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Description
Background
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and

Background
The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals’ residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates.
Methods
This study aims at enhancing the understanding of TB dynamics, within simplified, two patch, risk-defined environments, in the presence of short term mobility and variations in reinfection and infection rates via a mathematical model. The modeling framework captures the role of individuals’ ‘daily’ dynamics within and between places of residency, work or business via the average proportion of time spent in residence and as visitors to TB-risk environments (patches). As a result, the effective population size of Patch i (home of i-residents) at time t must account for visitors and residents of Patch i, at time t.
Results
The study identifies critical social behaviors mechanisms that can facilitate or eliminate TB infection in vulnerable populations. The results suggest that short-term mobility between heterogeneous patches contributes to significant overall increases in TB prevalence when risk is considered only in terms of direct new infection transmission, compared to the effect of exogenous reinfection. Although, the role of exogenous reinfection increases the risk that come from large movement of individuals, due to catastrophes or conflict, to TB-free areas.
Conclusions
The study highlights that allowing infected individuals to move from high to low TB prevalence areas (for example via the sharing of treatment and isolation facilities) may lead to a reduction in the total TB prevalence in the overall population. The higher the population size heterogeneity between distinct risk patches, the larger the benefit (low overall prevalence) under the same “traveling” patterns. Policies need to account for population specific factors (such as risks that are inherent with high levels of migration, local and regional mobility patterns, and first time infection rates) in order to be long lasting, effective and results in low number of drug resistant cases.
Created2017-01-11
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Description

Dyslexia is a learning disability that negatively affects reading, writing, and spelling development at the word level in 5%-9% of children. The phenotype is variable and complex, involving several potential cognitive and physical concomitants such as sensory dysregulation and immunodeficiencies. The biological pathogenesis is not well-understood. Toward a better understanding

Dyslexia is a learning disability that negatively affects reading, writing, and spelling development at the word level in 5%-9% of children. The phenotype is variable and complex, involving several potential cognitive and physical concomitants such as sensory dysregulation and immunodeficiencies. The biological pathogenesis is not well-understood. Toward a better understanding of the biological drivers of dyslexia, we conducted the first joint exome and metabolome investigation in a pilot sample of 30 participants with dyslexia and 13 controls. In the metabolite analysis, eight metabolites of interest emerged (pyridoxine, kynurenic acid, citraconic acid, phosphocreatine, hippuric acid, xylitol, 2-deoxyuridine, and acetylcysteine). A metabolite-metabolite interaction analysis identified Krebs cycle intermediates that may be implicated in the development of dyslexia. Gene ontology analysis based on exome variants resulted in several pathways of interest, including the sensory perception of smell (olfactory) and immune system-related responses. In the joint exome and metabolite analysis, the olfactory transduction pathway emerged as the primary pathway of interest. Although the olfactory transduction and Krebs cycle pathways have not previously been described in the dyslexia literature, these pathways have been implicated in other neurodevelopmental disorders including autism spectrum disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder, suggesting the possibility of these pathways playing a role in dyslexia as well. Immune system response pathways, on the other hand, have been implicated in both dyslexia and other neurodevelopmental disorders.

ContributorsNandakumar, Rohit (Author) / Dinu, Valentin (Thesis director) / Peter, Beate (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor)
Created2022-05
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Description
High throughput transcriptome data analysis like Single-cell Ribonucleic Acid sequencing (scRNA-seq) and Circular Ribonucleic Acid (circRNA) data have made significant breakthroughs, especially in cancer genomics. Analysis of transcriptome time series data is core in identifying time point(s) where drastic changes in gene transcription are associated with homeostatic to non-homeostatic cellular

High throughput transcriptome data analysis like Single-cell Ribonucleic Acid sequencing (scRNA-seq) and Circular Ribonucleic Acid (circRNA) data have made significant breakthroughs, especially in cancer genomics. Analysis of transcriptome time series data is core in identifying time point(s) where drastic changes in gene transcription are associated with homeostatic to non-homeostatic cellular transition (tipping points). In Chapter 2 of this dissertation, I present a novel cell-type specific and co-expression-based tipping point detection method to identify target gene (TG) versus transcription factor (TF) pairs whose differential co-expression across time points drive biological changes in different cell types and the time point when these changes are observed. This method was applied to scRNA-seq data sets from a SARS-CoV-2 study (18 time points), a human cerebellum development study (9 time points), and a lung injury study (18 time points). Similarly, leveraging transcriptome data across treatment time points, I developed methodologies to identify treatment-induced and cell-type specific differentially co-expressed pairs (DCEPs). In part one of Chapter 3, I presented a pipeline that used a series of statistical tests to detect DCEPs. This method was applied to scRNA-seq data of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) sequenced across cancer treatment times. However, this pipeline does not account for correlations among multiple single cells from the same sample and correlations among multiple samples from the same patient. In Part 2 of Chapter 3, I presented a solution to this problem using a mixed-effect model. In Chapter 4, I present a summary of my work that focused on the cross-species analysis of circRNA transcriptome time series data. I compared circRNA profiles in neonatal pig and mouse hearts, identified orthologous circRNAs, and discussed regulation mechanisms of cardiomyocyte proliferation and myocardial regeneration conserved between mouse and pig at different time points.
ContributorsNyarige, Verah Mocheche (Author) / Liu, Li (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Junwen (Thesis advisor) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
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Description
Advancements in high-throughput biotechnologies have generated large-scale multi-omics datasets encompassing diverse dimensions such as genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, metagenomics, and phenomics. Traditionally, statistical and machine learning-based approaches utilize single-omics data sources to uncover molecular signatures, dissect complicated cellular mechanisms, and predict clinical results. However, to capture the multifaceted pathological

Advancements in high-throughput biotechnologies have generated large-scale multi-omics datasets encompassing diverse dimensions such as genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, metagenomics, and phenomics. Traditionally, statistical and machine learning-based approaches utilize single-omics data sources to uncover molecular signatures, dissect complicated cellular mechanisms, and predict clinical results. However, to capture the multifaceted pathological mechanisms, integrative multi-omics analysis is needed that can provide a comprehensive picture of the disease. Here, I present three novel approaches to multi-omics integrative analysis. I introduce a single-cell integrative clustering method, which leverages multi-omics to enhance the resolution of cell subpopulations. Applied to a Cellular Indexing of Transcriptomes and Epitopes (CITE-Seq) dataset from human Acute Myeloid Lymphoma (AML) and control samples, this approach unveiled nuanced cell populations that otherwise remain elusive. I then shift the focus to a computational framework to discover transcriptional regulatory trios in which a transcription factor binds to a regulatory element harboring a genetic variant and subsequently differentially regulates the transcription level of a target gene. Applied to whole-exome, whole-genome, and transcriptome data of multiple myeloma samples, this approach discovered synergetic cis-acting and trans-acting regulatory elements associated with tumorigenesis. The next part of this work introduces a novel methodology that leverages the transcriptome and surface protein data at the single-cell level produced by CITE-Seq to model the intracellular protein trafficking process. Applied to COVID-19 samples, this approach revealed dysregulated protein trafficking associated with the severity of the infection.
ContributorsMudappathi, Rekha (Author) / Liu, Li (Thesis advisor) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Sun, Zhifu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023