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Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Passive radar can be used to reduce the demand for radio frequency spectrum bandwidth. This paper will explain how a MATLAB simulation tool was developed to analyze the feasibility of using passive radar with digitally modulated communication signals. The first stage of the simulation creates a binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) signal, quadrature phase-shift keying (QPSK) signal, or digital terrestrial television (DTTV) signal. A scenario is then created using user defined parameters that simulates reception of the original signal on two different channels, a reference channel and a surveillance channel. The signal on the surveillance channel is delayed and Doppler shifted according to a point target scattering profile. An ambiguity function detector is implemented to identify the time delays and Doppler shifts associated with reflections off of the targets created. The results of an example are included in this report to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.
ContributorsScarborough, Gillian Donnelly (Author) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis director) / Berisha, Visar (Committee member) / Wang, Chao (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Electrical Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
This research project investigated known and novel differential genetic variants and their associated molecular pathways involved in Type II diabetes mellitus for the purpose of improving diagnosis and treatment methods. The goal of this investigation was to 1) identify the genetic variants and SNPs in Type II diabetes to develop a gene regulatory pathway, and 2) utilize this pathway to determine suitable drug therapeutics for prevention and treatment. Using a Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), a set of 1000 gene identifiers from a Mayo Clinic database was analyzed to determine the most significant genetic variants related to insulin signaling pathways involved in Type II Diabetes. The following genes were identified: NRAS, KRAS, PIK3CA, PDE3B, TSC1, AKT3, SOS1, NEU1, PRKAA2, AMPK, and ACC. In an extensive literature review and cross-analysis with Kegg and Reactome pathway databases, novel SNPs located on these gene variants were identified and used to determine suitable drug therapeutics for treatment. Overall, understanding how genetic mutations affect target gene function related to Type II Diabetes disease pathology is crucial to the development of effective diagnosis and treatment. This project provides new insight into the molecular basis of the Type II Diabetes, serving to help untangle the regulatory complexity of the disease and aid in the advancement of diagnosis and treatment. Keywords: Type II Diabetes mellitus, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, genetic variants, KEGG Insulin Pathway, gene-regulatory pathway
ContributorsBucklin, Lindsay (Co-author) / Davis, Vanessa (Co-author) / Holechek, Susan (Thesis director) / Wang, Junwen (Committee member) / Nyarige, Verah (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This research project investigated known and novel differential genetic variants and their associated molecular pathways involved in Type II diabetes mellitus for the purpose of improving diagnosis and treatment methods. The goal of this investigation was to 1) identify the genetic variants and SNPs in Type II diabetes to develop a gene regulatory pathway, and 2) utilize this pathway to determine suitable drug therapeutics for prevention and treatment. Using a Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), a set of 1000 gene identifiers from a Mayo Clinic database was analyzed to determine the most significant genetic variants related to insulin signaling pathways involved in Type II Diabetes. The following genes were identified: NRAS, KRAS, PIK3CA, PDE3B, TSC1, AKT3, SOS1, NEU1, PRKAA2, AMPK, and ACC. In an extensive literature review and cross-analysis with Kegg and Reactome pathway databases, novel SNPs located on these gene variants were identified and used to determine suitable drug therapeutics for treatment. Overall, understanding how genetic mutations affect target gene function related to Type II Diabetes disease pathology is crucial to the development of effective diagnosis and treatment. This project provides new insight into the molecular basis of the Type II Diabetes, serving to help untangle the regulatory complexity of the disease and aid in the advancement of diagnosis and treatment.
ContributorsDavis, Vanessa Brooke (Co-author) / Bucklin, Lindsay (Co-author) / Holechek, Susan (Thesis director) / Wang, Junwen (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The stability of cheerleading stunts is crucial to athlete safety and team success. Consistency in stunt technique contributes to success in stunting skills, giving a team the tools to win competitions. Increased stunt technique reduces the chances of falls and the severity of those falls. Proper technique also prevents injuries caused by improper positions that place pressure on the lower back and shoulders. Bases must maintain strong technique with proper lines of support in order to maximize stunt stability. Through exploration of the EmbeddedML system, involving a neural network implemented using a SensorTile, cheerleading motions can be successfully classified. Using this system, it is possible to identify motions that result in both weak and injurious positions almost instantly. By alerting athletes to these incorrect motions, improper stunt technique can be corrected quickly and without the involvement of a coach. This automated technique correction would be incredibly beneficial to the sport of competitive cheerleading
ContributorsOspina, Lauren (Author) / Wang, Chao (Thesis director) / Chakrabarti, Chaitali (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Electrical Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2022-05