Climate is a critical determinant of agricultural productivity, and the ability to accurately predict this productivity is necessary to provide guidance regarding food security and agricultural management. Previous predictions vary in approach due to the myriad of factors influencing agricultural productivity but generally suggest long-term declines in productivity and agricultural land suitability under climate change. In this paper, I relate predicted climate changes to yield for three major United States crops, namely corn, soybeans, and wheat, using a moderate emissions scenario. By adopting data-driven machine learning approaches, I used the following machine learning methods: random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN) to perform comparative analysis and ensemble methodology. I omitted the western US due to the region's susceptibility to water stress and the prevalence of artificial irrigation as a means to compensate for dry conditions. By considering only climate, the model's results suggest an ensemble mean decline in crop yield of 23.4\% for corn, 19.1\% for soybeans, and 7.8\% for wheat between the years of 2017 and 2100. These results emphasize potential negative impacts of climate change on the current agricultural industry as a result of shifting bio-climactic conditions.
technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data
assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system
observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data
assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is
applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects
on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This
dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-
weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable
to Earth-system models:
Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of
the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show
that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved
components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse
(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.
Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses
the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This
strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density
observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-
Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.
Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on
average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of
the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed
vertical profiles.
Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising
ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-
plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the
spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the
transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces
error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions
during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
This thesis begins with a detailed discussion on the fundamentals of a Doppler lidar system. The laser signal flow path to and from the target, the optics of the system and the core signal processing algorithms used to extract velocity information, were studied to get closer to the hardware of a Doppler lidar sensor. A Doppler lidar simulator was built to study the existing signal processing algorithms to detect and estimate doppler frequency, and radial velocity information. Understanding the sensor and its processing at the hardware level is necessary to develop new algorithms to detect and track specific flow structures in the atmosphere. For example, the aircraft vortices have been a topic of extensive research and doppler lidars have proved to be a valuable sensor to detect and track these coherent flow structures. Using the lidar simulator a physics based doppler lidar vortex algorithm is tested on simulated data to track a pair of counter rotating aircraft vortices.
At a system level the major components of a time of flight lidar is very similar to a Doppler lidar. The fundamental physics of operation is however different. While doppler lidars are used for radial velocity measurement, ToF sensors as the name suggests provides precise depth measurements by measuring time of flight between the transmitted and the received pulses. The second part of this dissertation begins to explore the details of ToF lidar system. A system level design, to build a ToF direct detection lidar system is presented. Different lidar sensor modalities that are currently used with sensors in the market today for automotive applications were evaluated and a 2D MEMS based scanning lidar system was designed using off-the shelf components.
Finally, a range of experiments and tests were completed to evaluate the performance of each sub-component of the lidar sensor prototype. A major portion of the testing was done to align the optics of the system and to ensure maximum field of view overlap for the bi-static laser sensor. As a laser range finder, the system demonstrated capabilities to detect hard targets as far as 32 meters. Time to digital converter (TDC) and an analog to digital converter (ADC) was used for providing accurate timing solutions for the lidar prototype. A Matlab lidar model was built and used to perform trade-off studies that helped choosing components to suit the sensor design specifications.
The size, weight and cost of these lidar sensors are still very high and thus making it harder for automotive manufacturers to integrate these sensors into their vehicles. Ongoing research in this field is determined to find a solution that guarantees very high performance in real time and lower its cost over the next decade as components get cheaper and can be seamlessly integrated with cars to improve on-road safety.