The field of biomedical research relies on the knowledge of binding interactions between various proteins of interest to create novel molecular targets for therapeutic purposes. While many of these interactions remain a mystery, knowledge of these properties and interactions could have significant medical applications in terms of understanding cell signaling and immunological defenses. Furthermore, there is evidence that machine learning and peptide microarrays can be used to make reliable predictions of where proteins could interact with each other without the definitive knowledge of the interactions. In this case, a neural network was used to predict the unknown binding interactions of TNFR2 onto LT-ɑ and TRAF2, and PD-L1 onto CD80, based off of the binding data from a sampling of protein-peptide interactions on a microarray. The accuracy and reliability of these predictions would rely on future research to confirm the interactions of these proteins, but the knowledge from these methods and predictions could have a future impact with regards to rational and structure-based drug design.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.