Matching Items (149)
Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Consideration of both biological and human-use dynamics in coupled social-ecological systems is essential for the success of interventions such as marine reserves. As purely human institutions, marine reserves have no direct effects on ecological systems. Consequently, the success of a marine reserve depends on managers` ability to alter human behavior in the direction and magnitude that supports reserve objectives. Further, a marine reserve is just one component in a larger coupled social-ecological system. The social, economic, political, and biological landscape all determine the social acceptability of a reserve, conflicts that arise, how the reserve interacts with existing fisheries management, accuracy of reserve monitoring, and whether the reserve is ultimately able to meet conservation and fishery enhancement goals. Just as the social-ecological landscape is critical at all stages for marine reserve, from initial establishment to maintenance, the reserve in turn interacts with biological and human use dynamics beyond its borders. Those interactions can lead to the failure of a reserve to meet management goals, or compromise management goals outside the reserve. I use a bio-economic model of a fishery in a spatially patchy environment to demonstrate how the pre-reserve fisheries management strategy determines the pattern of fishing effort displacement once the reserve is established, and discuss the social, political, and biological consequences of different patterns for the reserve and the fishery. Using a stochastic bio-economic model, I demonstrate how biological and human use connectivity can confound the accurate detection of reserve effects by violating assumptions in the quasi-experimental framework. Finally, I examine data on recreational fishing site selection to investigate changes in response to the announcement of enforcement of a marine reserve in the Gulf of California, Mexico. I generate a scale of fines that would fully or partially protect the reserve, providing a data-driven way for managers to balance biological and socio-economic goals. I suggest that natural resource managers consider human use dynamics with the same frequency, rigor, and tools as they do biological stocks.
ContributorsFujitani, Marie (Author) / Abbott, Joshua (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Thesis advisor) / Gerber, Leah (Committee member) / Anderies, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is listed as an endangered species throughout its range in the southwestern United States. Little is known about its sub-population spatial structure and how this impacts its population viability. In conjunction with being listed as endangered, a recovery plan was produced by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, with recovery units (sub-populations) roughly based on major river drainages. In the interest of examining this configuration of sub-populations and their impact on the measured population viability, I applied a multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to a spatially extensive time series of abundance data for the southwestern willow flycatcher over the period spanning 1995-2010 estimating critical growth parameters, correlation in environmental stochasticity or "synchronicity" between sub-populations (recovery units) and extinction risk of the sub-populations and the whole. The model estimates two parameters, the mean and variance of annual growth rate. Of the models I tested, I found the strongest support for a population model in which three of the recovery units were grouped (the Lower Colorado, Gila Basin, and Rio Grande recovery units) while keeping all others separate. This configuration has 6.6 times more support for the observed data than a configuration assigning each recovery unit to a separate sub-population, which is how they are circumscribed in the recovery plan. Given the best model, the mean growth rate is -0.0234 (CI95 -0.0939, 0.0412) with a variance of 0.0597 (CI95 0.0115, 0.1134). This growth rate is not significantly different from zero and this is reflected in the low potential for quasi-extinction. The cumulative probability of the population experiencing at least an 80% decline from current levels within 15 years for some sub-populations were much higher (range: 0.129-0.396 for an 80% decline). These results suggest that the rangewide population has a low risk of extinction in the next 15 years and that the formal recovery units specified by the original recovery plan do not correspond to proper sub-population units as defined by population synchrony.
ContributorsDockens, Patrick E. T. (Author) / Sabo, John (Thesis advisor) / Stromberg, Juliet (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In vertebrate outer retina, changes in the membrane potential of horizontal cells affect the calcium influx and glutamate release of cone photoreceptors via a negative feedback. This feedback has a number of important physiological consequences. One is called background-induced flicker enhancement (BIFE) in which the onset of dim background enhances the center flicker response of horizontal cells. The underlying mechanism for the feedback is still unclear but competing hypotheses have been proposed. One is the GABA hypothesis, which states that the feedback is mediated by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), an inhibitory neurotransmitter released from horizontal cells. Another is the ephaptic hypothesis, which contends that the feedback is non-GABAergic and is achieved through the modulation of electrical potential in the intersynaptic cleft between cones and horizontal cells. In this study, a continuum spine model of the cone-horizontal cell synaptic circuitry is formulated. This model, a partial differential equation system, incorporates both the GABA and ephaptic feedback mechanisms. Simulation results, in comparison with experiments, indicate that the ephaptic mechanism is necessary in order for the model to capture the major spatial and temporal dynamics of the BIFE effect. In addition, simulations indicate that the GABA mechanism may play some minor modulation role.
ContributorsChang, Shaojie (Author) / Baer, Steven M. (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl L (Thesis advisor) / Crook, Sharon M (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Many studies over the past two decades examined the link between climate patterns and discharge, but few have attempted to study the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on localized and watershed specific processes such as nutrient loading in the Southwestern United States. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is used to describe the state of the ENSO, with positive (negative) values referring to an El Niño condition (La Niña condition). This study examined the connection between the MEI and precipitation, discharge, and total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the Upper Salt River Watershed in Arizona. Unrestricted regression models (UMs) and restricted regression models (RMs) were used to investigate the relationship between the discharges in Tonto Creek and the Salt River as functions of the magnitude of the MEI, precipitation, and season (winter/summer). The results suggest that in addition to precipitation, the MEI/season relationship is an important factor for predicting discharge. Additionally, high discharge events were associated with high magnitude ENSO events, both El Niño and La Niña. An UM including discharge and season, and a RM (restricting the seasonal factor to zero), were applied to TN and TP concentrations in the Salt River. Discharge and seasonality were significant factors describing the variability in TN in the Salt River while discharge alone was the significant factor describing TP. TN and TP in Roosevelt Lake were evaluated as functions of both discharge and MEI. Some significant correlations were found but internal nutrient cycling as well as seasonal stratification of the water column of the lake likely masks the true relationships. Based on these results, the MEI is a useful predictor of discharge, as well as nutrient loading in the Salt River Watershed through the Salt River and Tonto Creek. A predictive model investigating the effect of ENSO on nutrient loading through discharge can illustrate the effects of large scale climate patterns on smaller systems.
ContributorsSversvold, Darren (Author) / Neuer, Susanne (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
DescriptionThis paper provides an analysis of the differences in impacts made by companies that promote their sustainability efforts. A comparison of companies reveals that the ones with greater supply chain influence and larger consumer bases can make more concrete progress in terms of accomplishment for the sustainability realm.
ContributorsBeaubien, Courtney Lynn (Author) / Anderies, John (Thesis director) / Allenby, Brad (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
In this research we consider stochastic models of Glioblastoma Multiforme brain tumors. We first look at a model by K. Swanson et al., which describes the dynamics as random diffusion plus deterministic logistic growth. We introduce a stochastic component in the logistic growth in the form of a random growth rate defined by a Poisson process. We show that this stochastic logistic growth model leads to a more accurate evaluation of the tumor growth compared its deterministic counterpart. We also discuss future plans to incorporate individual patient geometry, extend the model to three dimensions and to incorporate effects of different treatments into our model, in collaboration with a local hospital.
ContributorsManning, Michael Clare (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Letters and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
Did the amount of media attention to the H1N1 flu or the information that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) disseminates about the H1N1 flu, influence individuals' decisions to avoid public locations during the 2009-2010 H1N1 Influenza pandemic? I investigate this question using weekly-confirmed H1N1 cases from the CDC, the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), and the Google Trends weekly search volume index for certain key terms. I found that individuals did exhibit some avoidance behaviour during the flu pandemic in response to the CDC data, but not the measures of media attention. However, the magnitudes of these adjustments are small in comparison to other measures of avoidance behaviour, such as reduced time in public during extreme weather events.
ContributorsGunn, Quentin Lee (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Thesis director) / Abbott, Joshua (Committee member) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
In the digital humanities, there is a constant need to turn images and PDF files into plain text to apply analyses such as topic modelling, named entity recognition, and other techniques. However, although there exist different solutions to extract text embedded in PDF files or run OCR on images, they typically require additional training (for example, scholars have to learn how to use the command line) or are difficult to automate without programming skills. The Giles Ecosystem is a distributed system based on Apache Kafka that allows users to upload documents for text and image extraction. The system components are implemented using Java and the Spring Framework and are available under an Open Source license on GitHub (https://github.com/diging/).
ContributorsLessios-Damerow, Julia (Contributor) / Peirson, Erick (Contributor) / Laubichler, Manfred (Contributor) / ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems (Contributor)
Created2017-09-28