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Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Viral protein U (Vpu) is a type-III integral membrane protein encoded by Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV- 1). It is expressed in infected host cells and plays several roles in viral progeny escape from infected cells, including down-regulation of CD4 receptors. But key structure/function questions remain regarding the mechanisms by which the Vpu protein contributes to HIV-1 pathogenesis. Here we describe expression of Vpu in bacteria, its purification and characterization. We report the successful expression of PelB-Vpu in Escherichia coli using the leader peptide pectate lyase B (PelB) from Erwinia carotovora. The protein was detergent extractable and could be isolated in a very pure form. We demonstrate that the PelB signal peptide successfully targets Vpu to the cell membranes and inserts it as a type I membrane protein. PelB-Vpu was biophysically characterized by circular dichroism and dynamic light scattering experiments and was shown to be an excellent candidate for elucidating structural models.
ContributorsDeb, Arpan (Author) / Johnson, William (Author) / Kline, Alexander (Author) / Scott, Boston (Author) / Meador, Lydia (Author) / Srinivas, Dustin (Author) / Martin Garcia, Jose Manuel (Author) / Dorner, Katerina (Author) / Borges, Chad (Author) / Misra, Rajeev (Author) / Hogue, Brenda (Author) / Fromme, Petra (Author) / Mor, Tsafrir (Author) / ASU Biodesign Center Immunotherapy, Vaccines and Virotherapy (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Biodesign Institute (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Applied Structural Discovery (Contributor) / Personalized Diagnostics (Contributor)
Created2017-02-22
Description
Programmed cell death plays an important role in a variety of processes that promote the survival of the host organism. Necroptosis, a form of programmed cell death, occurs through a signaling pathway involving the protein kinase RIPK3. In response to vaccinia virus infection, necroptosis acts through RIPK3 and the adaptor protein DAI to inhibit further viral replication in host cells. Stress granules are accumulations of mRNAs that have stalled in translation due to cellular stress. The toxin arsenite is a canonical inducer of stress granule formation and can cause necroptosis. By initiating necroptosis with arsenite and vaccinia virus, this research project investigated the roles of necroptosis proteins and their localizations into stress granules. The two aims of this research project were to determine if stress granules are important for arsenite-induced necroptosis, and whether the proteins DAI, RIPK3, MLKL, and G3BP localize into stress granules. The first aim was investigated by establishing a DAI and RIPK3 expression system in U2OS cells; arsenite was then used to treat the U2OS cells as well as U2OSΔG3BP cells, which are not able to form stress granules. The second aim was carried out by designing fluorescent tagging for the necroptosis proteins in order to visualize protein localization with fluorescent microscopy. The results showed that arsenite induces DAI-dependent necroptosis in U2OS cells and that this arsenite-induced necroptosis requires stress granules. In addition, it was determined that vaccinia virus induces DAI-dependent necroptosis that also requires stress granules. This project contributes to a greater understanding of the roles of DAI and RIPK3 in necroptosis, as well as the roles of stress granules in necroptosis, both of which are important in research regarding viral infection and cellular stress.
ContributorsGogerty, Carolina (Author) / Jacobs, Bertram (Thesis director) / Langland, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Jentarra, Garilyn (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Music (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Psychologists report effect sizes in randomized controlled trials to facilitate interpretation and inform clinical or policy guidance. Since commonly used effect size measures (e.g., standardized mean difference) are not sensitive to heterogeneous treatment effects, methodologists have suggested the use of an alternative effect size δ, a between-subjects causal parameter describing the probability that the outcome of a random participant in the treatment group is better than the outcome of another random participant in the control group. Although this effect size is useful, researchers could mistakenly use δ to describe its within-subject analogue, ψ, the probability that an individual will do better under the treatment than the control. Hand’s paradox describes the situation where ψ and δ are on opposing sides of 0.5: δ may imply most are helped whereas the (unknown) underlying ψ indicates that most are harmed by the treatment. The current study used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate plausible situations under which Hand’s paradox does and does not occur, tracked the magnitude of the discrepancy between ψ and δ, and explored whether the size of the discrepancy could be reduced with a relevant covariate. The findings suggested that although the paradox should not occur under bivariate normal data conditions in the population, there could be sample cases with the paradox. The magnitude of the discrepancy between ψ and δ depended on both the size of the average treatment effect and the underlying correlation between the potential outcomes, ρ. Smaller effects led to larger discrepancies when ρ < 0 and ρ = 1, whereas larger effects led to larger discrepancies when 0 < ρ < 1. It was useful to consider a relevant covariate when calculating ψ and δ. Although ψ and δ were still discrepant within covariate levels, results indicated that conditioning upon relevant covariates is still useful in describing heterogeneous treatment effects.
ContributorsLiu, Xinran (Author) / Anderson, Samantha F (Thesis advisor) / McNeish, Daniel (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is an orthopoxvirus that causes smallpox-like disease and has up to a 10% mortality rate, depending on the infectious strain. The global eradication of the smallpox virus has led to the decrease in smallpox vaccinations, which has led to a drastic increase in the number of human MPXV cases. MPXV has been named the most important orthopoxvirus to infect humans since the eradication of smallpox and has been the causative agent of the 2022 world-wide MPXV outbreak. Despite being highly pathogenic, MPXV contains a natural truncation at the N-terminus of its E3 homologue. Vaccinia virus (VACV) E3 protein has two domains: an N- terminus Z-form nucleic acid binding domain (Z-BD) and a C-terminus double stranded RNA binding domain (dsRBD). Both domains are required for pathogenesis, interferon (IFN) resistance, and protein kinase R (PKR) inhibition. The N-terminus is required for evasion of Z-DNA binding protein 1 (ZBP1)-dependent necroptosis. ZBP1 binding to Z- form deoxyribonucleic acid/ribonucleic acid (Z-DNA/RNA) leads to activation of receptor-interacting protein kinase 3 (RIPK3) leading to mixed lineage kinase domain- like (MLKL) phosphorylation, aggregation and cell death. This study investigated how different cell lines combat MPXV infection and how MPXV has evolved ways to circumvent the host response. MPXV is shown to inhibit necroptosis in L929 cells by degrading RIPK3 through the viral inducer of RIPK3 degradation (vIRD) and by inhibiting MLKL aggregation. Additionally, the data shows that IFN treatment efficiently inhibits MPXV replication in a ZBP1-, RIPK3-, and MLKL- dependent manner, but independent of necroptosis. Also, the data suggests that an IFN inducer with a pancaspase or proteasome inhibitor could potentially be a beneficial treatment against MPXV infections. Furthermore, it reveals a link between PKR and pathogen-induced necroptosis that has not been previously described.
ContributorsWilliams, Jacqueline (Author) / Jacobs, Bertram (Thesis advisor) / Langland, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Lake, Douglas (Committee member) / Varsani, Arvind (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Mediation analysis is integral to psychology, investigating human behavior’s causal mechanisms. The diversity of explanations for human behavior has implications for the estimation and interpretation of statistical mediation models. Individuals can have similar observed outcomes while undergoing different causal processes or different observed outcomes while receiving the same treatment. Researchers can employ diverse strategies when studying individual differences in multiple mediation pathways, including individual fit measures and analysis of residuals. This dissertation investigates the use of individual residuals and fit measures to identify individual differences in multiple mediation pathways. More specifically, this study focuses on mediation model residuals in a heterogeneous population in which some people experience indirect effects through one mediator and others experience indirect effects through a different mediator. A simulation study investigates 162 conditions defined by effect size and sample size for three proposed methods: residual differences, delta z, and generalized Cook’s distance. Results indicate that analogs of Type 1 error rates are generally acceptable for the method of residual differences, but statistical power is limited. Likewise, neither delta z nor gCd could reliably distinguish between contrasts that had true effects and those that did not. The outcomes of this study reveal the potential for statistical measures of individual mediation. However, limitations related to unequal subpopulation variances, multiple dependent variables, the inherent relationship between direct effects and unestimated indirect effects, and minimal contrast effects require more research to develop a simple method that researchers can use on single data sets.
ContributorsSmyth, Heather Lynn (Author) / MacKinnon, David (Thesis advisor) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Committee member) / McNeish, Daniel (Committee member) / Grimm, Kevin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Food insecurity is an economic and social condition involving limited or uncertain access to food. The problem of food insecurity in communities is influenced by economic conditions, food deserts, and barriers to accessing healthy food. Individuals experiencing food insecurity often endure concurrent problems of financial instability, hunger, and poor mental and physical health. Public and non-profit services in the U.S., such as the federally supported Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and community food banks, provide food-related assistance to individuals who are at a high risk of experiencing food insecurity. Unfortunately, many individuals who qualify for these services still experience food insecurity due to barriers preventing them from accessing food, which may include inadequate finances, transportation, skills, and information. Effective approaches for removing barriers that prevent individuals from accessing food are needed to mitigate the increased risk of hunger, nutritional deficiencies, and chronic disease among vulnerable populations. This dissertation tested a novel food insecurity intervention using informational nudges to promote food security through the elimination of information barriers to accessing food. The intervention used in this mixed-methods feasibility study consisted of informational nudges in the form of weekly text messages that were sent to food pantry clients experiencing food insecurity. The study aims were to test the efficacy and acceptability of the intervention by examining whether the informational nudges could enhance food pantry utilization, increase SNAP registration, and promote food security. Quantitative study results showed a lower prevalence of food insecurity in the intervention group than the control group. Qualitative findings revealed how the intervention group found the text messages to be helpful and informative. These study findings can enhance future food insecurity interventions aiming to eliminate barriers that prevent individuals who are food insecure from accessing healthy food.
ContributorsRoyer, Michael F. (Author) / Wharton, Christopher (Thesis advisor) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Der Ananian, Cheryl (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Ohri-Vachaspati, Punam (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Longitudinal recursive partitioning (LRP) is a tree-based method for longitudinal data. It takes a sample of individuals that were each measured repeatedly across time, and it splits them based on a set of covariates such that individuals with similar trajectories become grouped together into nodes. LRP does this by fitting a mixed-effects model to each node every time that it becomes partitioned and extracting the deviance, which is the measure of node purity. LRP is implemented using the classification and regression tree algorithm, which suffers from a variable selection bias and does not guarantee reaching a global optimum. Additionally, fitting mixed-effects models to each potential split only to extract the deviance and discard the rest of the information is a computationally intensive procedure. Therefore, in this dissertation, I address the high computational demand, variable selection bias, and local optimum solution. I propose three approximation methods that reduce the computational demand of LRP, and at the same time, allow for a straightforward extension to recursive partitioning algorithms that do not have a variable selection bias and can reach the global optimum solution. In the three proposed approximations, a mixed-effects model is fit to the full data, and the growth curve coefficients for each individual are extracted. Then, (1) a principal component analysis is fit to the set of coefficients and the principal component score is extracted for each individual, (2) a one-factor model is fit to the coefficients and the factor score is extracted, or (3) the coefficients are summed. The three methods result in each individual having a single score that represents the growth curve trajectory. Therefore, now that the outcome is a single score for each individual, any tree-based method may be used for partitioning the data and group the individuals together. Once the individuals are assigned to their final nodes, a mixed-effects model is fit to each terminal node with the individuals belonging to it.
I conduct a simulation study, where I show that the approximation methods achieve the goals proposed while maintaining a similar level of out-of-sample prediction accuracy as LRP. I then illustrate and compare the methods using an applied data.
I conduct a simulation study, where I show that the approximation methods achieve the goals proposed while maintaining a similar level of out-of-sample prediction accuracy as LRP. I then illustrate and compare the methods using an applied data.
ContributorsStegmann, Gabriela (Author) / Grimm, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Edwards, Michael (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / McNeish, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
There is a need to reinvent evidence-based interventions (EBIs) for pediatric anxiety problems to better address the demands of real-word service delivery settings and achieve public health impact. The time- and resource-intensive nature of most EBIs for youth anxiety has frequently been noted as a barrier to the utilization of EBIs in community settings, leading to increased attention towards exploring the viability of briefer, more accessible protocols. Principally, this research reports between-group effect sizes from brief-interventions targeting pediatric anxiety and classifies each as well-established, probably efficacious, possibly efficacious, experimental, or questionable. brief interventions yielded an overall mean effect size of 0.19 on pediatric anxiety outcomes from pre to post. Effect sizes varied significantly by level of intervention: Pre to post-intervention effects were strongest for brief-treatments (0.35), followed by brief-targeted prevention (0.22), and weakest for brief-universal prevention (0.09). No participant or other intervention characteristic emerged as significant moderators of effect sizes. In terms of standard of evidence, one brief intervention is well-established, and five are probably efficacious, with most drawing on cognitive and behavioral change procedures and/or family systems models. At this juncture, the minimal intervention needed for clinical change in pediatric anxiety points to in-vivo exposures for specific phobias (~3 hours), cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) with social skills training (~3 hours), and CBT based parent training (~6 hours, eight digital modules with clinician support). This research concludes with a discussion on limitations to available brief EBIs, practice guidelines, and future research needed to capitalize on the viability of briefer protocols in enhancing access to, and impact of, evidence-based care in the real-world.
ContributorsStoll, Ryan (Author) / Pina, Armando A. (Thesis advisor) / Gonzales, Nancy (Committee member) / MacKinnon, David (Committee member) / Perez, Marisol (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Yersinia enterocolitica is a major foodborne pathogen found worldwide that causes approximately 87,000 human cases and approximately 1,100 hospitalizations per year in the United States. Y. enterocolitica is a very unique pathogen with the domesticated pig acting as the main animal reservoir for pathogenic bio/serotypes, and as the primary source of human infection. Similar to other gastrointestinal infections, Yersinia enterocolitica is known to trigger autoimmune responses in humans. The most frequent complication associated with Y. enterocolitica is reactive arthritis - an aseptic, asymmetrical inflammation in the peripheral and axial joints, most frequently occurring as an autoimmune response in patients with the HLA-B27 histocompatability antigen. As a foodborne illness it may prove to be a reasonable explanation for some of the cases of arthritis observed in past populations that are considered to be of unknown etiology. The goal of this dissertation project was to study the relationship between the foodborne illness -Y. enterocolitica, and the incidence of arthritis in individuals with and without contact with the domesticated pig.
ContributorsBrown, Starletta (Author) / Hurtado, Ana M (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Hill, Kim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015