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Extraordinary medical advances have led to significant reductions in the burden of infectious diseases in humans. However, infectious diseases still account for more than 13 million annual deaths. This large burden is partly due to some pathogens having found suitable conditions to emerge and spread in denser and more connected host populations, and others having evolved to escape the pressures imposed by the rampant use of antimicrobials. It is then critical to improve our understanding of how diseases spread in these modern landscapes, characterized by new host population structures and socio-economic environments, as well as containment measures such as the deployment of drugs. Thus, the motivation of this dissertation is two-fold. First, we study, using both data-driven and modeling approaches, the the spread of infectious diseases in urban areas. As a case study, we use confirmed-cases data on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States to assess the conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socio-economic characteristics as predictors of STD incidence. We find that the scaling of STD incidence in cities is superlinear, and that the percent of African-Americans residing in cities largely determines these statistical patterns. Since disparities in access to health care are often exacerbated in urban areas, within this project we also develop two modeling frameworks to study the effect of health care disparities on epidemic outcomes. Discrepant results between the two approaches indicate that knowledge of the shape of the recovery period distribution, not just its mean and variance, is key for assessing the epidemiological impact of inequalities. The second project proposes to study, from a modeling perspective, the spread of drug resistance in human populations featuring vital dynamics, stochasticity and contact structure. We derive effective treatment regimes that minimize both the overall disease burden and the spread of resistance. Additionally, targeted treatment in structured host populations may lead to higher levels of drug resistance, and if drug-resistant strains are compensated, they can spread widely even when the wild-type strain is below its epidemic threshold.
ContributorsPatterson-Lomba, Oscar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Urban scaling analysis has introduced a new scientific paradigm to the study of cities. With it, the notions of size, heterogeneity and structure have taken a leading role. These notions are assumed to be behind the causes for why cities differ from one another, sometimes wildly. However, the mechanisms by which size, heterogeneity and structure shape the general statistical patterns that describe urban economic output are still unclear. Given the rapid rate of urbanization around the globe, we need precise and formal mathematical understandings of these matters. In this context, I perform in this dissertation probabilistic, distributional and computational explorations of (i) how the broadness, or narrowness, of the distribution of individual productivities within cities determines what and how we measure urban systemic output, (ii) how urban scaling may be expressed as a statistical statement when urban metrics display strong stochasticity, (iii) how the processes of aggregation constrain the variability of total urban output, and (iv) how the structure of urban skills diversification within cities induces a multiplicative process in the production of urban output.
ContributorsGómez-Liévano, Andrés (Author) / Lobo, Jose (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Bettencourt, Luis M. A. (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Many acidic hot springs in Yellowstone National Park support microbial iron oxidation, reduction, or microbial iron redox cycling (MIRC), as determined by microcosm rate experiments. Microbial dissimilatory iron reduction (DIR) was detected in numerous systems with a pH < 4. Rates of DIR are influenced by the availability of ferric minerals and organic carbon. Microbial iron oxidation (MIO) was detected from pH 2 – 5.5. In systems with abundant Fe (II), dissolved oxygen controls the presence of MIO. Rates generally increase with increased Fe(II) concentrations, but rate constants are not significantly altered by additions of Fe(II). MIRC was detected in systems with abundant ferric mineral deposition.
The rates of microbial and abiological iron oxidation were determined in a variety of cold (T= 9-12°C), circumneutral (pH = 5.5-9) environments in the Swiss Alps. Rates of MIO were measured in systems up to a pH of 7.4; only abiotic processes were detected at higher pH values. Iron oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) were responsible for 39-89% of the net oxidation rate at locations where biological iron oxidation was detected. Members of putative iron oxidizing genera, especially Gallionella, are abundant in systems where MIO was measured. Speciation calculations reveal that ferrous iron typically exists as FeCO30, FeHCO3+, FeSO40 or Fe2+ in these systems. The presence of ferrous (bi)carbonate species appear to increase abiotic iron oxidation rates relative to locations without significant concentrations. This approach, integrating geochemistry, rates, and community composition, reveals biogeochemical conditions that permit MIO, and locations where the abiotic rate is too fast for the biotic process to compete.
For a reaction to provide habitability for microbes in a given environment, it must energy yield and this energy must dissipate slowly enough to remain bioavailable. Thermodynamic boundaries exist at conditions where reactions do not yield energy, and can be quantified by calculations of chemical energy. Likewise, kinetic boundaries exist at conditions where the abiotic reaction rate is so fast that reactants are not bioavailable; this boundary can be quantified by measurements biological and abiological rates. The first habitability maps were drawn, using iron oxidation as an example, by quantifying these boundaries in geochemical space.
The rates of microbial and abiological iron oxidation were determined in a variety of cold (T= 9-12°C), circumneutral (pH = 5.5-9) environments in the Swiss Alps. Rates of MIO were measured in systems up to a pH of 7.4; only abiotic processes were detected at higher pH values. Iron oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) were responsible for 39-89% of the net oxidation rate at locations where biological iron oxidation was detected. Members of putative iron oxidizing genera, especially Gallionella, are abundant in systems where MIO was measured. Speciation calculations reveal that ferrous iron typically exists as FeCO30, FeHCO3+, FeSO40 or Fe2+ in these systems. The presence of ferrous (bi)carbonate species appear to increase abiotic iron oxidation rates relative to locations without significant concentrations. This approach, integrating geochemistry, rates, and community composition, reveals biogeochemical conditions that permit MIO, and locations where the abiotic rate is too fast for the biotic process to compete.
For a reaction to provide habitability for microbes in a given environment, it must energy yield and this energy must dissipate slowly enough to remain bioavailable. Thermodynamic boundaries exist at conditions where reactions do not yield energy, and can be quantified by calculations of chemical energy. Likewise, kinetic boundaries exist at conditions where the abiotic reaction rate is so fast that reactants are not bioavailable; this boundary can be quantified by measurements biological and abiological rates. The first habitability maps were drawn, using iron oxidation as an example, by quantifying these boundaries in geochemical space.
ContributorsSt Clair, Brian (Author) / Shock, Everett L (Thesis advisor) / Anbar, Ariel (Committee member) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Committee member) / Hartnett, Hilairy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Biological soil crusts (biocrust) are photosynthetic communities of organisms forming in the top millimeters of unvegetated soil. Because soil crusts contribute several ecosystem services to the areas they inhabit, their loss under anthropogenic pressure has negative ecological consequences. There is a considerable interest in developing technologies for biocrust restoration such as biocrust nurseries to grow viable inoculum and the optimization of techniques for field deployment of this inoculum. For the latter, knowledge of the natural rates of biocrust dispersal is needed. Lateral dispersal can be based on self-propelled motility by component microbes, or on passive transport through propagule entrainment in runoff water or wind currents, all of which remain to be assessed. I focused my research on determining the capacity of biocrust for lateral self-propelled dispersal. Over the course of one year, I set up two greenhouse experiments where sterile soil substrates were inoculated with biocrusts and where the lateral advancement of biocrust and their cyanobacteria was monitored using time-course photography, discrete determination of soil chlorophyll a concentration, and microscopic observations. Appropriate uninoculated controls were also set up and monitored. These experiments confirm that cyanobacterial biological soil crusts are capable of laterally expanding when provided with presumably optimal watering regime similar to field conditions and moderate temperatures. The maximum temperatures of Sonoran Desert summer (up to 42 °C), exacerbated in the greenhouse setting (48 °C), caused a loss of biomass and the cessation of lateral dispersal, which resumed as temperature decreased. In 8 independent experiments, biocrust communities advanced laterally at an average rate of 2 cm per month, which is half the maximal rate possible based on the instantaneous speed of gliding motility of the cyanobacterium Microcoleus vaginatus. In a span of three months, populations of M. vaginatus, M. steenstrupii, and Scytonema spp. advanced 1 cm/month on average. The advancing crust front was found to be preferentially composed of hormogonia (differentiated, fast-gliding propagules of cyanobacteria). Having established the potential for laterally self-propelled community dispersal (without wind or runoff contributions) will help inform restoration efforts by proposing minimal inoculum size and optimal distance between inoculum patches.
ContributorsSorochkina, Kira (Author) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Thesis advisor) / Rowe, Helen (Committee member) / Wu, Jianguo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Decay of plant litter represents an enormous pathway for carbon (C) into the atmosphere but our understanding of the mechanisms driving this process is particularly limited in drylands. While microbes are a dominant driver of litter decay in most ecosystems, their significance in drylands is not well understood and abiotic drivers such as photodegradation are commonly perceived to be more important. I assessed the significance of microbes to the decay of plant litter in the Sonoran Desert. I found that the variation in decay among 16 leaf litter types was correlated with microbial respiration rates (i.e. CO2 emission) from litter, and rates were strongly correlated with water-vapor sorption rates of litter. Water-vapor sorption during high-humidity periods activates microbes and subsequent respiration appears to be a significant decay mechanism. I also found that exposure to sunlight accelerated litter decay (i.e. photodegradation) and enhanced subsequent respiration rates of litter. The abundance of bacteria (but not fungi) on the surface of litter exposed to sunlight was strongly correlated with respiration rates, as well as litter decay, implying that exposure to sunlight facilitated activity of surface bacteria which were responsible for faster decay. I also assessed the response of respiration to temperature and moisture content (MC) of litter, as well as the relationship between relative humidity and MC. There was a peak in respiration rates between 35-40oC, and, unexpectedly, rates increased from 55 to 70oC with the highest peak at 70oC, suggesting the presence of thermophilic microbes or heat-tolerant enzymes. Respiration rates increased exponentially with MC, and MC was strongly correlated with relative humidity. I used these relationships, along with litter microclimate and C loss data to estimate the contribution of this pathway to litter C loss over 34 months. Respiration was responsible for 24% of the total C lost from litter – this represents a substantial pathway for C loss, over twice as large as the combination of thermal and photochemical abiotic emission. My findings elucidate two mechanisms that explain why microbial drivers were more significant than commonly assumed: activation of microbes via water-vapor sorption and high respiration rates at high temperatures.
ContributorsTomes, Alexander (Author) / Day, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Committee member) / Ball, Becky (Committee member) / Hall, Sharon (Committee member) / Roberson, Robert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Desert organisms lead harsh lives owing to the extreme, often unpredictable environmental conditions they endure. Climate change will likely make their existence even harsher. Predicting the ecological consequences of future climate scenarios thus requires understanding how the biota will be affected by climatic shifts. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are an important ecosystem component in arid lands, one that covers large portions of the landscape, improving soil stability and fertility. Because cyanobacteria are biocrust’s preeminent primary producers, eking out an existence during short pulses of precipitation, they represent a relevant global change object of study. I assessed how climate scenarios predicted for the Southwestern United States (US) will affect biocrusts using long-term, rainfall-modifying experimental set-ups that imposed either more intense drought, a seasonally delayed monsoon season, or a shift to smaller but more frequent precipitation events. I expected drought to be detrimental, but not a delay in the monsoon season. Surprisingly, both treatments showed similar effects on cyanobacterial community composition and population size after four years. While successionally incipient biocrusts were unaffected, mature biocrusts lost biomass and diversity with treatment, especially among nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. In separate experiments, I assessed the effect of rainfall with modified event size and frequency after a decade of treatment. Small, frequent rainfall events surprisingly enhanced the diversity and biomass of bacteria and cyanobacteria, with clear winners and losers: nitrogen-fixing Scytonema sp. benefited, while Microcoleus vaginatus lost its dominance. As an additional finding, I could also show that water addition is not always beneficial to biocrusts, calling into question the notion that these are strictly water-limited systems.
Finally, results interpretation was severely hampered by a lack of appropriate systematic treatment for an important group of biocrust cyanobacteria, the “Microcoleus steenstrupii complex”. I characterized the complex using a polyphasic approach, leading to the formal description of a new family (Porphyrosiphonaceae) of desiccation resistant cyanobacteria that includes 11 genera, of which 5 had to be newly described. Under the new framework, the distribution and abundance of biocrust cyanobacteria with respect to environmental conditions can now be understood. This body of work contributes significantly to explain current distributional patterns of biocrust cyanobacteria and to predict their fate in the face of climate change.
Finally, results interpretation was severely hampered by a lack of appropriate systematic treatment for an important group of biocrust cyanobacteria, the “Microcoleus steenstrupii complex”. I characterized the complex using a polyphasic approach, leading to the formal description of a new family (Porphyrosiphonaceae) of desiccation resistant cyanobacteria that includes 11 genera, of which 5 had to be newly described. Under the new framework, the distribution and abundance of biocrust cyanobacteria with respect to environmental conditions can now be understood. This body of work contributes significantly to explain current distributional patterns of biocrust cyanobacteria and to predict their fate in the face of climate change.
ContributorsMoreira Camara Fernandes, Vanessa (Author) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Thesis advisor) / Rudgers, Jennifer (Committee member) / Sala, Osvaldo (Committee member) / Penton, Christopher (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Modern agriculture faces multiple challenges: it must produce more food for a growing global population, adopt more efficient and sustainable management strategies, and adapt to climate change. One potential component of a sustainable management strategy is the application of biochar to agricultural soils. Biochar is the carbon-rich product of biomass pyrolysis, which contains large proportions of aromatic compounds that influence its stability in soil. Concomitant with carbon sequestration, biochar has the potential to increase soil fertility through increasing soil pH, moisture and nutrient retention. Changes in the soil physical and chemical properties can result in shifts in the soil microbiome, which are the proximate drivers of soil processes. This dissertation aims to determine the compositional and functional changes in the soil microbial community in response to the addition of a low-volatile matter biochar. First, the impact of biochar on the bacterial community was investigated in two important agricultural soils (Oxisol and Mollisol) with contrasting fertility under two different cropping systems (conventional sweet corn and zero-tillage napiergrass) one month and one year after the initial addition. This study revealed that the effects of biochar on the bacterial community were most pronounced in the Oxisol under napiergrass cultivation, however soil type was the strongest determinant of the bacterial community. A follow-up study was conducted using shotgun metagenomics to probe the functional community of soil microcosms, which contained Oxisol soil under napiergrass two years after the initial addition of biochar. Biochar significantly increased total carbon in the soils but had little impact on other soil properties. Theses analyses showed that biochar-amended soil microcosms exhibited significant shifts in the functional community and key metabolic pathways related to carbon turnover and denitrification. Given the distinct alterations to the biochar-amended community, deoxyribose nucleic acid (DNA) stable isotope probing was used to target the active populations. These analyses revealed that biochar did not significantly shift the active community in soil microcosms. Overall, these results indicate that the impact of biochar on the active soil community is transient in nature. Yet, biochar may still be a promising strategy for long-term carbon sequestration in agricultural soils.
ContributorsYu, Julian (Author) / Penton, C. Ryan (Thesis advisor) / Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby (Thesis advisor) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Committee member) / Hall, Sharon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
There is a growing consensus that photodegradation accelerates litter decomposition in drylands, but the mechanisms are not well understood. In a previous field study examining how exposure to solar radiation affects decomposition of 12 leaf litter types over 34 months in the Sonoran Desert, litter exposed to UV/blue wavebands of solar radiation decayed faster. The concentration of water-soluble compounds was higher in decayed litter than in new (recently senesced) litter, and higher in decayed litter exposed to solar radiation than other decayed litter. Microbial respiration of litter incubated in high relative humidity for 1 day was greater in decayed litter than new litter and greatest in decayed litter exposed to solar radiation. Respiration rates were strongly correlated with decay rates and water-soluble concentrations of litter. The objective of the current study was to determine why respiration rates were higher in decayed litter and why this effect was magnified in litter exposed to solar radiation. First, I evaluated whether photodegradation enhanced the quantity of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in litter by comparing DOC concentrations of photodegraded litter to new litter. Second, I evaluated whether photodegradation increased the quality of DOC for microbial utilization by measuring respiration of leachates with equal DOC concentrations after applying them to a soil inoculum. I hypothesized that water vapor sorption may explain differences in respiration among litter age or sunlight exposure treatments. Therefore, I assessed water vapor sorption of litter over an 8-day incubation in high relative humidity. Water vapor sorption rates over 1 and 8 days were slower in decayed than new litter and not faster in photodegraded than other decayed litter. However, I found that 49-78% of the variation in respiration could be explained by the relative amount of water litter absorbed over 1 day compared to 8 days, a measure referred to as relative water content. Decayed and photodegraded litter had higher relative water content after 1 day because it had a lower water-holding capacity. Higher respiration rates of decayed and photodegraded litter were attributed to faster microbial activation due to greater relative water content of that litter.
ContributorsBliss, Michael Scott (Author) / Day, Thomas A. (Thesis advisor) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Committee member) / Throop, Heather L. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
I studied the molecular mechanisms of ultraviolet radiation mitigation (UVR) in the terrestrial cyanobacterium Nostoc punctiforme ATCC 29133, which produces the indole-alkaloid sunscreen scytonemin and differentiates into motile filaments (hormogonia). While the early stages of scytonemin biosynthesis were known, the late stages were not. Gene deletion mutants were interrogated by metabolite analyses and confocal microscopy, demonstrating that the ebo gene cluster, was not only required for scytonemin biosynthesis, but was involved in the export of scytonemin monomers to the periplasm. Further, the product of gene scyE was also exported to the periplasm where it was responsible for terminal oxidative dimerization of the monomers. These results opened questions regarding the functional universality of the ebo cluster. To probe if it could play a similar role in organisms other than scytonemin producing cyanobacteria, I developed a bioinformatic pipeline (Functional Landscape And Neighbor Determining gEnomic Region Search; FLANDERS) and used it to scrutinize the neighboring regions of the ebo gene cluster in 90 different bacterial genomes for potentially informational features. Aside from the scytonemin operon and the edb cluster of Pseudomonas spp., responsible for nematode repellence, no known clusters were identified in genomic ebo neighbors, but many of the ebo adjacent regions were enriched in signal peptides for export, indicating a general functional connection between the ebo cluster and biosynthetic compartmentalization. Lastly, I investigated the regulatory span of the two-component regulator of the scytonemin operon (scyTCR) using RNAseq of scyTCR deletion mutants under UV induction. Surprisingly, the knockouts had decreased expression levels in many of the genes involved in hormogonia differentiation and in a putative multigene regulatory element, hcyA-D. This suggested that UV could be a cue for developmental motility responses in Nostoc, which I could confirm phenotypically. In fact, UV-A simultaneously elicited hormogonia differentiation and scytonemin production throughout a genetically homogenous population. I show through mutant analyses that the partner-switching mechanism coded for by hcyA-D acts as a hinge between the scytonemin and hormogonia based responses. Collectively, this dissertation contributes to the understanding of microbial adaptive responses to environmental stressors at the genetic and regulatory level, highlighting their phenomenological and mechanistic complexity.
ContributorsKlicki, Kevin (Author) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Thesis advisor) / Wilson, Melissa (Committee member) / Mukhopadhyay, Aindrila (Committee member) / Misra, Rajeev (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021