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This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Extreme hot-weather events have become life-threatening natural phenomena in many cities around the world, and the health impacts of excessive heat are expected to increase with climate change (Huang et al. 2011; Knowlton et al. 2007; Meehl and Tebaldi 2004; Patz 2005). Heat waves will likely have the worst health impacts in urban areas, where large numbers of vulnerable people reside and where local-scale urban heat island effects (UHI) retard and reduce nighttime cooling. This dissertation presents three empirical case studies that were conducted to advance our understanding of human vulnerability to heat in coupled human-natural systems. Using vulnerability theory as a framework, I analyzed how various social and environmental components of a system interact to exacerbate or mitigate heat impacts on human health, with the goal of contributing to the conceptualization of human vulnerability to heat. The studies: 1) compared the relationship between temperature and health outcomes in Chicago and Phoenix; 2) compared a map derived from a theoretical generic index of vulnerability to heat with a map derived from actual heat-related hospitalizations in Phoenix; and 3) used geospatial information on health data at two areal units to identify the hot spots for two heat health outcomes in Phoenix. The results show a 10-degree Celsius difference in the threshold temperatures at which heat-stress calls in Phoenix and Chicago are likely to increase drastically, and that Chicago is likely to be more sensitive to climate change than Phoenix. I also found that heat-vulnerability indices are sensitive to scale, measurement, and context, and that cities will need to incorporate place-based factors to increase the usefulness of vulnerability indices and mapping to decision making. Finally, I found that identification of geographical hot-spot of heat-related illness depends on the type of data used, scale of measurement, and normalization procedures. I recommend using multiple datasets and different approaches to spatial analysis to overcome this limitation and help decision makers develop effective intervention strategies.
ContributorsChuang, Wen-Ching (Author) / Gober, Patricia (Thesis advisor) / Boone, Christopher (Committee member) / Guhathakurta, Subhrajit (Committee member) / Ruddell, Darren (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Decision makers contend with uncertainty when working through complex decision problems. Yet uncertainty visualization, and tools for working with uncertainty in GIS, are not widely used or requested in decision support. This dissertation suggests a disjoint exists between practice and research that stems from differences in how visualization researchers conceptualize uncertainty and how decision makers frame uncertainty. To bridge this gap between practice and research, this dissertation explores uncertainty visualization as a means for reframing uncertainty in geographic information systems for use in policy decision support through three connected topics. Initially, this research explores visualizing the relationship between uncertainty and policy outcomes as a means for incorporating policymakers' decision frames when visualizing uncertainty. Outcome spaces are presented as a method to represent the effect of uncertainty on policy outcomes. This method of uncertainty visualization acts as an uncertainty map, representing all possible outcomes for specific policy decisions. This conceptual model incorporates two variables, but implicit uncertainty can be extended to multivariate representations. Subsequently, this work presented a new conceptualization of uncertainty, termed explicit and implicit, that integrates decision makers' framing of uncertainty into uncertainty visualization. Explicit uncertainty is seen as being separate from the policy outcomes, being described or displayed separately from the underlying data. In contrast, implicit uncertainty links uncertainty to decision outcomes, and while understood, it is not displayed separately from the data. The distinction between explicit and implicit is illustrated through several examples of uncertainty visualization founded in decision science theory. Lastly, the final topic assesses outcome spaces for communicating uncertainty though a human subject study. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the implicit uncertainty visualization method for communicating uncertainty for policy decision support. The results suggest that implicit uncertainty visualization successfully communicates uncertainty in results, even though uncertainty is not explicitly shown. Participants also found the implicit visualization effective for evaluating policy outcomes. Interestingly, participants also found the explicit uncertainty visualization to be effective for evaluating the policy outcomes, results that conflict with prior research.
ContributorsDeitrick, Stephanie (Author) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Goodchild, Michael (Committee member) / Edsall, Robert (Committee member) / Gober, Patricia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as the key element of a three-level hierarchical vegetation framework for reducing those costs, and a three-step procedure was used to evaluate its effects. A two-step procedure, which involved environmental stratifications and the random walker algorithm, was used for tree density segmentation. I determined whether variation in tone and texture could be reduced within environmental strata, and whether tree density segmentations could be labeled by species associations. At the final level, two tree density segmentations were partitioned into smaller subsets using eCognition in order to label individual species or tree stands in two test areas of two tree densities, and the Z values of Moran's I were used to evaluate whether imagery objects have different mean values from near segmentations as a measure of segmentation accuracy. The two-step procedure was able to delineating tree density segments and label species types robustly, compared to previous hierarchical frameworks. However, eCognition was not able to produce detailed, reasonable image objects with optimal scale parameters for species labeling. This hierarchical vegetation framework is applicable for fine-scale, time-series vegetation mapping to develop baseline data for evaluating climate change impacts on vegetation at low cost using widely available data and a personal laptop.
ContributorsLiau, Yan-ting (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Turner, Billie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Land transformation under conditions of rapid urbanization has significantly altered the structure and functioning of Earth's systems. Land fragmentation, a characteristic of land transformation, is recognized as a primary driving force in the loss of biological diversity worldwide. However, little is known about its implications in complex urban settings where interaction with social dynamics is intense. This research asks: How do patterns of land cover and land fragmentation vary over time and space, and what are the socio-ecological drivers and consequences of land transformation in a rapidly growing city? Using Metropolitan Phoenix as a case study, the research links pattern and process relationships between land cover, land fragmentation, and socio-ecological systems in the region. It examines population growth, water provision and institutions as major drivers of land transformation, and the changes in bird biodiversity that result from land transformation. How to manage socio-ecological systems is one of the biggest challenges of moving towards sustainability. This research project provides a deeper understanding of how land transformation affects socio-ecological dynamics in an urban setting. It uses a series of indices to evaluate land cover and fragmentation patterns over the past twenty years, including land patch numbers, contagion, shapes, and diversities. It then generates empirical evidence on the linkages between land cover patterns and ecosystem properties by exploring the drivers and impacts of land cover change. An interdisciplinary approach that integrates social, ecological, and spatial analysis is applied in this research. Findings of the research provide a documented dataset that can help researchers study the relationship between human activities and biotic processes in an urban setting, and contribute to sustainable urban development.
ContributorsZhang, Sainan (Author) / Boone, Christopher G. (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail M. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Sustainable urbanism offers a set of best practice planning and design prescriptions intended to reverse the negative environmental consequences of urban sprawl, which dominates new urban development in the United States. Master planned developments implementing sustainable urbanism are proliferating globally, garnering accolades within the planning community and skepticism among social scientists. Despite attention from supporters and critics alike, little is known about the actual environmental performance of sustainable urbanism. This dissertation addresses the reasons for this paucity of evidence and the capacity of sustainable urbanism to deliver the espoused environmental outcomes through alternative urban design and the conventional master planning framework for development through three manuscripts. The first manuscript considers the reasons why geography, which would appear to be a natural empirical home for research on sustainable urbanism, has yet to accumulate evidence that links design alternatives to environmental outcomes or to explain the social processes that mediate those outcomes. It argues that geography has failed to develop a coherent subfield based on nature-city interactions and suggests interdisciplinary bridging concepts to invigorate greater interaction between the urban and nature-society geographic subfields. The subsequent chapters deploy these bridging concepts to empirically examine case-studies in sustainable urbanism. The second manuscript utilizes fine scale spatial data to quantify differences in ecosystem services delivery across three urban designs in two phases of Civano, a sustainable urbanism planned development in Tucson, Arizona, and an adjacent, typical suburban development comparison community. The third manuscript considers the extent to which conventional master planning processes are fundamentally at odds with urban environmental sustainability through interviews with stakeholders involved in three planned developments: Civano (Tucson, Arizona), Mueller (Austin, Texas), and Prairie Crossing (Grayslake, Illinois). Findings from the three manuscripts reveal deep challenges in conceptualizing an empirical area of inquiry on sustainable urbanism, measuring the outcomes of urban design alternatives, and innovating planning practice within the constraints of existing institutions that facilitate conventional development. Despite these challenges, synthesizing the insights of geography and cognate fields holds promise in building an empirical body of knowledge that complements pioneering efforts of planners to innovate urban planning practice through the sustainable urbanism alternative.
ContributorsTurner, Victoria (Author) / Gober, Patricia (Thesis advisor) / Eakin, Hallie (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann (Committee member) / Talen, Emily (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Thirty six percent of Americans are obese and thirty three percent are overweight; obesity has become a known killer in the U.S. yet its prevalence has maintained a firm grasp on the U.S. population and continues to spread across the globe as other countries slowly adopt the American lifestyle. A survey was compiled collecting demographic and body mass index (BMI) information, as well as Tanofsky-Kraff’s (2009) “Assess Eating in the Absence of Hunger” survey questions. The survey used for this study was emailed out to Arizona State University students in Barrett, The Honors College, and the ASU School of Nutrition and Health Promotion listservs. A total of 457 participants completed the survey, 72 males and 385 females (mean age, 24.5±7.7 y; average body mass index (BMI), 23.4 ± 4.8 [a BMI of 25-29.9 is classified as overweight]). When comparing BMI with the living situation, 71% of obese students were living at home with family versus off campus with friends or alone. For comparison, 45% of normal weight students lived at home with family. These data could help structure prevention plans targeting college students by focusing on weight gain prevention at the family level. Results from the Tanofsky-Kraff (2009) survey revealed there was not a significant relationship between external or physical cues and BMI in men or women, but there was a significant positive correlation between emotional cues and BMI in women only. Anger and sadness were the emotional cues in women related to initiating consumption past satiation and consumption following several hours of fasting. Although BMI was inversely related to physical activity in this sample (r = -0.132; p=0.005), controlling for physical activity did not impact the significant associations of BMI with anger or sadness (P>0.05). This information is important in targeting prevention programs to address behavioral change and cognitive awareness of the effects of emotion on over-consumption.
ContributorsGarza, Andrea Marie (Author) / Johnston, Carol (Thesis director) / Jacobs, Mark (Committee member) / Coletta, Dawn (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
New-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation (NODAT) occurs in 20% of kidney transplant patients. In 5 patients who are at risk for new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation, skeletal muscle gene expression profiling was performed both before and after kidney transplant. The differences in gene expression before and after transplant were compared in order to identify specific genes that could be linked to developing NODAT. These findings could open new avenues for future research.
ContributorsLowery, Clint Curtis (Author) / Coletta, Dawn (Thesis director) / Katsanos, Christos (Committee member) / Willis, Wayne (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
DNA methylation, a subset of epigenetics, has been found to be a significant marker associated with variations in gene expression and activity across the entire human genome. As of now, however, there is little to no information about how DNA methylation varies between different tissues inside a singular person's body. By using research data from a preliminary study of lean and obese clinical subjects, this study attempts to put together a profile of the differences in DNA methylation that can be observed between two particular body tissues from this subject group: blood and skeletal muscle. This study allows us to start describing the changes that occur at the epigenetic level that influence how differently these two tissues operate, along with seeing how these tissues change between individuals of different weight classes, especially in the context of the development of symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes.
ContributorsRappazzo, Micah Gabriel (Author) / Coletta, Dawn (Thesis director) / Katsanos, Christos (Committee member) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
While previous studies have shown that urban heat islands (UHI) tend to increase residential water use, they have not yet analyzed the feedbacks among vegetation intensity, diurnal temperature variation, water use, and characteristics of the built environment. This study examines these feedback relationships with the help of a path model applied to spatially disaggregated data from Phoenix, Arizona. The empirical evidence from the observations in Phoenix suggests the following: (1) impervious surfaces contribute to increased residential water use by exacerbating UHI; (2) larger lots containing pools and mesic vegetation increase water demand by reducing diurnal temperature difference; and (3) smart design of urban environments needs to go beyond simplistic water body- and vegetation-based solutions for mitigating uncomfortably high temperatures and consider interactions between surface materials, land use, UHI, and water use.
ContributorsGuhathakurta, Subhrajit (Author) / Gober, Patricia (Author)
Created2010-07-08