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Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
This survey was used to identify the concerns of the public. There are many population techniques that the public feels are harmful to the behavior and nature of the horses. This research defined the different techniques and history of the situation to then analyze the public's opinion of the topic. The survey was trying to determine if any of the techniques could be accepted by the public to control the population of the horses that won’t put the forest, other species, and the herds themselves in danger of possible overpopulation effects.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
ContributorsPadayachee, Brittany (Co-author) / Hoover, Sierra (Co-author) / Roen, Duane (Thesis director) / Murphree, Julie (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
This survey was used to identify the concerns of the public. There are many population techniques that the public feels are harmful to the behavior and nature of the horses. This research defined the different techniques and history of the situation to then analyze the public's opinion of the topic. The survey was trying to determine if any of the techniques could be accepted by the public to control the population of the horses that won’t put the forest, other species, and the herds themselves in danger of possible overpopulation effects.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
The data collected from this research showed conflict for the subject. Some of the data was skewed due to conflicting viewpoints on the topic. Analyzing the other aspects of the data we saw noticed that 73% of the servers felt the horses were wild. A majority agreed that the horses should stay there and not be relocated. Some individuals who took the survey were interested in adopting out the horses to help manage horses, there were some concerns with background checks for these adopters since slaughter houses and poor living conditions is a concern.
ContributorsHoover, Sierra Nicole (Co-author) / Padayachee, Brittany (Co-author) / Roen, Duane (Thesis director) / Murphree, Julie (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
The purpose of this project was to create a workshop for adults without dance experience to immerse them in dance as a form of therapy. The goals of this workshop are to foster physical awareness and physical creativity. There are four main areas the participants would get experience in from this workshop including self-care/awareness, expression, gesture and choreography. These four areas are the ways that the two main goals manifest themselves. For this project I reviewed research by many different professionals from the therapy, psychology, self-care, dance, and dance therapy fields. Their studies as well as my own experience aided in putting together my themes for the workshop and class activities. I include my methodology, lesson plans, a workbook, and my reflection on the process.
ContributorsWilson, Deepika (Author) / Roses-Thema, Cynthia (Thesis director) / Giorgis, Cyndi (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a known factor to exacerbate cardiopulmonary diseases. We previously demonstrated that PM mediated endothelial injury and barrier disruption via modulation of the endothelial cytoskeleton and cell-cell junctions, while the effects of PM exposure on cell-cell communication and gap junction activity are still unknown. This study is focused on the characterization of PM-mediated endothelial dysfunction via Connexin 43 (Cx43), the most abundant Gap junction protein expressed in lung endothelial cells (ECs). PM exposure induces a time-dependent elevation of Cx43 in human lung ECs, at both mRNA and protein levels. N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC), an ROS scavenger, significantly suppresses PM-induced Cx43 expression. Membrane-associated and ER/ Golgi apparatus Cx43 protein are elevated upon PM challenge. In addition, PM also activates the gap junction activity, indicated by the transportation of green fluorescence dye between two adjacent ECs. Moreover, GAP27, a selective Cx43 channel inhibitor, attenuates PM-reduced human lung EC barrier disruption, measured by trans-endothelial electrical resistance (TER) with an electric cell-substrate impedance sensing system. Moreover, knock-down the expression of Cx43 by its selective siRNA alleviates PM-induced MLC phosphorylation. These results highly suggest that Cx43 plays a key role in PM-mediated endothelial barrier disruption and signal transduction. Cx43 may deputy as a therapeutic target in PM-mediated cardiopulmonary disorders.
ContributorsKheshtchin-Kamel, Nabia (Author) / Welcome, Natalie (Thesis director) / Wang, Ting (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
“Sam’s Emotional Day: A Child’s Guide to Recognizing and Handling Emotions” is a creative project that fulfills the thesis requirement for Barrett, The Honors College at Arizona State University. It is an illustrated children’s book meant to help children ages 4-7 identify, understand, and manage the six basic emotions. The illustrations of the main character throughout the book display clear facial expressions associated with each emotion, which were designed for children to easily identify them. The text in the story portion will prompt children to understand the feelings behind each emotion in a simple matter, and the end of the book provides techniques for them to manage emotions. Research on the importance of teaching children emotions, how to teach them, and similar children’s literature are discussed. Facial expressions and feelings while experiencing an emotion was also researched, which is presented in the creative process. An analysis of the text and illustrations is provided as well.
ContributorsMartinson, Hannah Marie (Author) / Jimenez-Arista, Laura (Thesis director) / Pereira, Jennifer (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
The United Nations outlined seventeen goals in their 2015 resolution aimed at securing a more sustainable future for the entire world. These goals cover all parts of life and are meant to standardize quality of life at a high level for all countries. Specific to the Maasai people of Kenya and Tanzania, there are five main goals that would tackle some of the biggest issues facing the Maasai and greatly improve their lives. These goals include the promotion of good health and well-being, ensuring a quality education for school-age children, supporting efforts for gender equality in all communities, and securing clean and safe water and sanitation services for all people around the world. There are many Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in the Maasai community that are striving to support them and realize these Sustainable Development Goals. Organizations like the Maasai Girls Education Fund and Aid Tanzania have established educational programs to support children, mainly girls, in their efforts to get an education. Others like End Water Poverty and the Maasai Association have programs to ensure safe, accessible drinking water is made available to Maasai communities across Kenya and Tanzania. Lastly, NGOs like My Chosen Vessels have programs that support the economic sustainability and livestock management of the Maasai while also ensuring that Maasai families receive clean water and access to an education. The work and practices of NGOs like these can serve as examples of how to efficiently and effectively address and tackle issues in developing countries, specifically regarding Maasai women and girls, to move closer to achieving these UN Sustainable Development Goals and lead a more sustainable future. Many studies have been done researching the political and economic struggles for Maasai communities and how it impacts them. Vandana Shiva coined the term, “Water Democracy” in her book Water Wars to express the multiple reasons why water is a necessity and right. Many Maasai groups do not have easy access to basic essentials for their everyday lives and NGOs have been noticing this more and more. Dorothy Hodgson writes about the history of Maasai NGOs, and mentions the multiple conflicts that they have had with each other, causing many Maasai groups to have different lifestyles. The connections between the history of the Maasai tribe, their current economy and their current relationship with the government and NGOs all impact women in their communities in different ways.
ContributorsWacloff, Jianna K (Author) / Martin, Thomas (Thesis director) / Oberle, Eric (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
This policy proposal paper is designed to address concerns about the protection of data
concerning citizens of the United States. The first step is to explore the need for federal
legislation because of the problems of cyberattacks, data loss and leakage, and big data. The
proposal then analyses how other countries had already addressed these concerns for their
citizens through legislation by looking at their regulation and the results of implementation. The
paper adjacently discusses the importance of American values of privacy as a fundamental right,
the free market, and protection from the private sector within a cybersecurity paradigm. From
this combined research, the paper yields a proposal of how the U.S. government should address
the situation through federal policy. The policy outlines cybersecurity measures to protect
information from cyberattacks and data loss and leakage, rights of American citizens that
organizations need to uphold, and the creation of a commission that provides resources and
education to domestic and foreign organizations.
concerning citizens of the United States. The first step is to explore the need for federal
legislation because of the problems of cyberattacks, data loss and leakage, and big data. The
proposal then analyses how other countries had already addressed these concerns for their
citizens through legislation by looking at their regulation and the results of implementation. The
paper adjacently discusses the importance of American values of privacy as a fundamental right,
the free market, and protection from the private sector within a cybersecurity paradigm. From
this combined research, the paper yields a proposal of how the U.S. government should address
the situation through federal policy. The policy outlines cybersecurity measures to protect
information from cyberattacks and data loss and leakage, rights of American citizens that
organizations need to uphold, and the creation of a commission that provides resources and
education to domestic and foreign organizations.
ContributorsBrockman, Emily M. (Author) / Hollinger, Keith (Thesis director) / Walsh, Tatiana (Committee member) / Martin, Thomas (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Information Technology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05