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- Language: English
- Creators: Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
phosphate or magnesium to the culture medium abrogated the fluid shear-related differences observed for A130 in LB medium for the acid or oxidative stress responses, respectively. Collectively, these findings indicate that like other Salmonella strains assessed thus far by our team, A130 responds to differences in physiological fluid shear, and that ion concentrations can modulate those responses.
In this paper, we present a Bayesian analysis for the Weibull proportional hazard (PH) model used in step-stress accelerated life testings. The key mathematical and graphical difference between the Weibull cumulative exposure (CE) model and the PH model is illustrated. Compared with the CE model, the PH model provides more flexibility in fitting step-stress testing data and has the attractive mathematical properties of being desirable in the Bayesian framework. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with adaptive rejection sampling technique is used for posterior inference. We demonstrate the performance of this method on both simulated and real datasets.
We describe mechanical metamaterials created by folding flat sheets in the tradition of origami, the art of paper folding, and study them in terms of their basic geometric and stiffness properties, as well as load bearing capability. A periodic Miura-ori pattern and a non-periodic Ron Resch pattern were studied. Unexceptional coexistence of positive and negative Poisson's ratio was reported for Miura-ori pattern, which are consistent with the interesting shear behavior and infinity bulk modulus of the same pattern. Unusually strong load bearing capability of the Ron Resch pattern was found and attributed to the unique way of folding. This work paves the way to the study of intriguing properties of origami structures as mechanical metamaterials.
Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network “mobile” can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.
We develop a completely data-driven approach to reconstructing coupled neuronal networks that contain a small subset of chaotic neurons. Such chaotic elements can be the result of parameter shift in their individual dynamical systems and may lead to abnormal functions of the network. To accurately identify the chaotic neurons may thus be necessary and important, for example, applying appropriate controls to bring the network to a normal state. However, due to couplings among the nodes, the measured time series, even from non-chaotic neurons, would appear random, rendering inapplicable traditional nonlinear time-series analysis, such as the delay-coordinate embedding method, which yields information about the global dynamics of the entire network. Our method is based on compressive sensing. In particular, we demonstrate that identifying chaotic elements can be formulated as a general problem of reconstructing the nodal dynamical systems, network connections and all coupling functions, as well as their weights. The working and efficiency of the method are illustrated by using networks of non-identical FitzHugh–Nagumo neurons with randomly-distributed coupling weights.
X-ray tomography has provided a non-destructive means for microstructure characterization in three and four dimensions. A stochastic procedure to accurately reconstruct material microstructure from limited-angle X-ray tomographic projections is presented and its utility is demonstrated by reconstructing a variety of distinct heterogeneous materials and elucidating the information content of different projection data sets. A small number of projections (e.g. 20–40) are necessary for accurate reconstructions via the stochastic procedure, indicating its high efficiency in using limited structural information.
Numerous recent investigations have been devoted to the determination of the equilibrium phase behavior and packing characteristics of hard nonspherical particles, including ellipsoids, superballs, and polyhedra, to name but just a few shapes. Systems of hard nonspherical particles exhibit a variety of stable phases with different degrees of translational and orientational order, including isotropic liquid, solid crystal, rotator and a variety of liquid crystal phases. In this paper, we employ a Monte Carlo implementation of the adaptive-shrinking-cell (ASC) numerical scheme and free-energy calculations to ascertain with high precision the equilibrium phase behavior of systems of congruent Archimedean truncated tetrahedra over the entire range of possible densities up to the maximal nearly space-filling density. In particular, we find that the system undergoes two first-order phase transitions as the density increases: first a liquid–solid transition and then a solid–solid transition. The isotropic liquid phase coexists with the Conway–Torquato (CT) crystal phase at intermediate densities, verifying the result of a previous qualitative study [J. Chem. Phys. 2011, 135, 151101]. The freezing- and melting-point packing fractions for this transition are respectively ϕF = 0.496 ± 0.006 and ϕM = 0.591 ± 0.005.
At higher densities, we find that the CT phase undergoes another first-order phase transition to one associated with the densest-known crystal, with coexistence densities in the range ϕ ∈ [0.780 ± 0.002, 0.802 ± 0.003]. We find no evidence for stable rotator (or plastic) or nematic phases. We also generate the maximally random jammed (MRJ) packings of truncated tetrahedra, which may be regarded to be the glassy end state of a rapid compression of the liquid. Specifically, we systematically study the structural characteristics of the MRJ packings, including the centroidal pair correlation function, structure factor and orientational pair correlation function. We find that such MRJ packings are hyperuniform with an average packing fraction of 0.770, which is considerably larger than the corresponding value for identical spheres (≈ 0.64). We conclude with some simple observations concerning what types of phase transitions might be expected in general hard-particle systems based on the particle shape and which would be good glass formers.