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Reconstruction of a tornado disaster employing remote sensing techniques: a case study of the 1999 Moore, Oklahoma tornado

Description

Remote sensing has demonstrated to be an instrumental tool in monitoring land changes as a result of anthropogenic change or natural disasters. Most disaster studies have focused on large-scale events with few analyzing small-scale disasters such as tornadoes. These studies have only provided a damage assessment perspective with the continued…

Remote sensing has demonstrated to be an instrumental tool in monitoring land changes as a result of anthropogenic change or natural disasters. Most disaster studies have focused on large-scale events with few analyzing small-scale disasters such as tornadoes. These studies have only provided a damage assessment perspective with the continued need to assess reconstruction. This study attempts to fill that void by examining recovery from the 1999 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado utilizing Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Recovery was assessed for 2000, 2001 and 2002 using spectral enhancements (vegetative and urban indices and a combination of the two), a recovery index and different statistical thresholds. Classification accuracy assessments were performed to determine the precision of recovery and select the best results. This analysis proved that medium resolution imagery could be used in conjunction with geospatial techniques to capture recovery. The new indices, Shortwave Infrared Index (SWIRI) and Coupled Vegetation and Urban Index (CVUI), developed for disaster management, were the most effective at discerning reconstruction using the 1.5 standard deviation threshold. Recovery rates for F-scale damages revealed that the most incredibly damaged areas associated with an F5 rating were the slowest to recover, while the lesser damaged areas associated with F1-F3 ratings were the quickest to rebuild. These findings were consistent for 2000, 2001 and 2002 also exposing that complete recovery was never attained in any of the F-scale damage zones by 2002. This study illustrates the significance the biophysical impact has on recovery as well as the effectiveness of using medium resolution imagery such as Landsat in future research.

ContributorsWagner, Melissa A (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W. (Thesis advisor) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

Acclimation's influence on physically-fit individuals: marathon race results as a function of meteorological variables and indices

Description

While there are many elements to consider when determining one's risk of heat or cold stress, acclimation could prove to be an important factor to consider. Individuals who are participating in more strenuous activities, while being at a lower risk, will still feel the impacts of acclimation to an…

While there are many elements to consider when determining one's risk of heat or cold stress, acclimation could prove to be an important factor to consider. Individuals who are participating in more strenuous activities, while being at a lower risk, will still feel the impacts of acclimation to an extreme climate. To evaluate acclimation in strenuous conditions, I collected finishing times from six different marathon races: the New York City Marathon (New York City, New York), Equinox Marathon (Fairbanks, Alaska), California International Marathon (Sacramento, California), LIVESTRONG Austin Marathon (Austin, Texas), Cincinnati Flying Pig Marathon (Cincinnati, Ohio), and the Ocala Marathon (Ocala, Florida). Additionally, I collected meteorological variables for each race day and the five days leading up to the race (baseline). I tested these values against the finishing times for the local runners, those from the race state, and visitors, those from other locations. Effects of local acclimation could be evaluated by comparing finishing times of local runners to the change between the race day and baseline weather conditions. Locals experienced a significant impact on finishing times for large changes between race day and the baseline conditions for humidity variables, dew point temperature, vapor pressure, relative humidity, and temperature based variables such as the heat index, temperature and the saturation vapor pressure. Wind speed and pressure values also marked a change in performance, however; pressure was determined to be a larger psychological factor than acclimation factor. The locals also demonstrated an acclimation effect as performance improved when conditions were similar on race day to baseline conditions for the three larger races. Humidity variables had the largest impact on runners when those values increased from training and acclimation values; however increased wind speed appeared to offset increased humidity values. These findings support previous acclimation research stating warm wet conditions are more difficult to acclimate to than warm dry conditions. This research while primarily pertaining to those participating physically demanding activities may also be applied to other large scale events such as festivals, fairs, or concerts.

ContributorsDeBiasse, Kimberly Michelle (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Selover, Nancy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

Short term exogenic climate change forcing

Description

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray…

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

ContributorsKrahenbuhl, Dan (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Dorn, Ron (Committee member) / Shaffer, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

The 500hPa wintertime Pacific ridge: characteristics of position and intensity and its influence on Southwest U.S. precipitation

Description

The characteristics of the wintertime 500hPa height surface, the level of non-divergence and used for identifying/observing synoptic-scale features (ridges and troughs), and their impact on precipitation are of significance to forecasters, natural resource managers and planners across the southwestern United States. For this study, I evaluated the location of the…

The characteristics of the wintertime 500hPa height surface, the level of non-divergence and used for identifying/observing synoptic-scale features (ridges and troughs), and their impact on precipitation are of significance to forecasters, natural resource managers and planners across the southwestern United States. For this study, I evaluated the location of the 500hPa mean Pacific ridge axis over the winter for the period of 1948/49 to 2011/12 and derived the mean ridge axis in terms of location (longitude) and intensity (geopotential meters) from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. After deriving a mean ridge axis climatology and analyzing its behavior over time, I correlated mean location and intensity values to observed wintertime precipitation in select U.S. Climate Divisions in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico. This resulted in two findings. First specific to the 500hPa ridge behavior, the ridge has been moving eastward and also has been intensifying through time. Second, results involving correlation tests between mean ridge location and intensity indicate precipitation across the selected Southwest Climate Divisions are strongly related to mean ridge intensity slightly more than ridge location. The relationships between mean ridge axis and observed precipitation also are negative, indicating an increase of one of the ridge parameters (i.e. continued eastward movement or intensification) lead to drier winter seasons across the Southwest. Increased understanding of relationships between upper-level ridging and observed wintertime precipitation aids in natural resource planning for an already arid region that relies heavily on winter precipitation.

ContributorsNolte, Jessica Marie (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Selover, Nancy J. (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Climatological isentropic analysis: identifying patterns associated with tornado occurrences across the United States

Description

Isentropic analysis is a type of analysis that is based on using the concept of potential temperatures, the adiabatically established temperature at 1000 hPa. In the 1930s and 1940s this type of analysis proved to be valuable in indicating areas of increased moisture content and locations experiencing flow up or…

Isentropic analysis is a type of analysis that is based on using the concept of potential temperatures, the adiabatically established temperature at 1000 hPa. In the 1930s and 1940s this type of analysis proved to be valuable in indicating areas of increased moisture content and locations experiencing flow up or down adiabatic surfaces. However, in the early 1950s, this type of analysis faded out of use and not until the twenty-first century have some researchers started once again to examine the usefulness of isentropic analysis. One aspect in which isentropic analysis could be practical, based on prior research, is in severe weather situations, due to its ability to easily show adiabatic motion and moisture. As a result, I analyzed monthly climatological isentropic surfaces to identify distinct patterns associated with tornado occurrences for specific regions and months across the contiguous United States. I collected tornado reports from 1974 through 2009 to create tornado regions for each month across the contiguous United States and corresponding upper air data for the same time period. I then separated these upper air data into tornado and non-tornado days for specific regions and conducted synoptic and statistical analyses to establish differences between the two. Finally, I compared those results with analyses of individual case studies for each defined region using independent data from 2009 through 2010. On tornado days distinct patterns can be identified on the isentropic surface: (1) the average isentropic surface lowered on tornado days indicating a trough across the region, (2) a corresponding increase in moisture content occurred across the tornado region, and (3) wind shifted in such a manner to produce flow up the isentropic trough indicating uplift. When comparing the climatological results with the case studies, the isentropic pattern for the case studies in general was more pronounced compared to the climatological pattern; however, this would be expected as when creating the average the pattern/conditions will be smoothed. These findings begin to bridge the large gap in literature, show the usefulness of isentropic analysis in monthly and daily use and serve as catalysts to create a finer resolution database in isentropic coordinates.

ContributorsPace, Matthew Brandon (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Selover, Nancy J (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012

Challenges Associated with Projecting Urbanization-Induced Heat-Related Mortality

Description

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed…

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.

Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).

Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.

ContributorsHondula, David M. (Author) / Georgescu, Matei (Author) / Balling, Jr., Robert C. (Author)

Created2014-04-28

Assessing Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heat: A Public Health Evaluation of Cooling Centers in Maricopa County, Arizona

Description

Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53…

Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.

ContributorsBerisha, Vjollca (Author) / Hondula, David M. (Author) / Roach, Matthew (Author) / White, Jessica R. (Author) / McKinney, Benita (Author) / Bentz, Darcie (Author) / Mohamed, Ahmed (Author) / Uebelherr, Joshua (Author) / Goodin, Kate (Author)

Created2016-09-23

Snow level elevation over the western United States: an analysis of variability and trend

Description

Many previous investigators highlight the importance of snowfall to the water supply of the western United States (US). Consequently, the variability of snowpack, snowmelt, and snowfall has been studied extensively. Snow level (the elevation that rainfall transitions to snowfall) directly influences the spatial extent of snowfall and has received little…

Many previous investigators highlight the importance of snowfall to the water supply of the western United States (US). Consequently, the variability of snowpack, snowmelt, and snowfall has been studied extensively. Snow level (the elevation that rainfall transitions to snowfall) directly influences the spatial extent of snowfall and has received little attention in the climate literature. In this study, the relationships between snow level and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are established. The contributions of ENSO/PDO to observed multi-decadal trends are analyzed for the last ~80 years. Snowfall elevations are quantified using three methods: (1) empirically, based on precipitation type from weather stations at a range of elevations; (2) theoretically, from wet-bulb zero heights; (3) theoretically, from measures of thickness and temperature. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) results consistent between the three datasets suggest snow levels are highest during El Niño events. This signal is particularly apparent over the coastal regions and the increased snow levels may be a result of frequent maritime flow into the western US during El Niño events. The El Niño signal weakens with distance from the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Rockies display decreased snow level elevations, likely due to maritime air masses within the mid-latitude cyclones following enhanced meridional flow transitioning to continental air masses. The modulation of these results by PDO suggest that this El Niño signal is amplified (dampened) during the cold (warm) phase of the PDO particularly over Southern California. Additionally, over the coastal states, the La Niña signal during the cold PDO is similar to the general El Niño signal. This PDO signal is likely due to more zonal (meridional) flow throughout winter during the cold (warm) PDO from the weakening (strengthening) of the Aleutian low in the North Pacific. Significant trend results indicate widespread increases in snow level across the western US. These trends span changes in PDO phase and trends with ENSO/PDO variability removed are significantly positive. These results suggest that the wide spread increases in snow level are not well explained by these sea surface temperature oscillations.

ContributorsSvoma, Bohumil V (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Balling, Robert C. (Committee member) / Ellis, Andrew W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

Spatial and Geographic Analysis of European and Southwest North American Dust Storms

Description

Dust storms have far-reaching human and economic impacts; spreading disease, raspatory and cardiovascular disruption, destruction of property and crops, and death. Understanding of this phenomenon is can help with operational and academic endeavors and alleviate some of these impacts. To accomplish this goal, this dissertation poses a central question: Do…

Dust storms have far-reaching human and economic impacts; spreading disease, raspatory and cardiovascular disruption, destruction of property and crops, and death. Understanding of this phenomenon is can help with operational and academic endeavors and alleviate some of these impacts. To accomplish this goal, this dissertation poses a central question: Do dust storms have discreet geographic and temporal characteristics that can aid academic and operational analysis of these storms? To answer this question three case studies were undertaken. The first study constructed an archive of 549 dust rain events across Europe to determine a seasonal pattern. It was discovered that the largest number of events occurred in the Spring season (MAM). Then three individual events across Europe were examined to highlight the synoptic events that control these dust rains. Each event can be closely tied to the movement of the migratory Rossby waves and linked to Saharan dust from North Africa. The second study was a construction of Central Sonoran Desert dust storms from 2009 to 2022 tied to the NAM. HYSPLIT back-trajectories linked the strongest events to source regions mainly from the Southwest along the Gila River from the Gulf of California. As the storms weaken in intensity they drift to the South and Southeast traveling along the Santa Cruz River and its tributaries. The third study was a case study of three large events in the Central Sonoran Desert along the Gila River. This study examines the effects of the local topography, specifically the stand-alone mountain complexes that can block or funnel dust as it moves through the Gila River Valley. In each instance the South Mountain Complex and the Sierra Estrella served as a dust shield containing the highest dust concentrations to the south side of the Gila River Valley. This dissertation has analyzed several of the different elements of dust storms. These elements include the synoptic patterns that drive dust storms, the source regions of dust storms, and the ground level topography that can control their movement. Fundamentally, these findings can enhance our academic understanding of dust storms as well as our operational ability to forecast.

ContributorsWhite, Joshua Randolph (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Balling Jr., Robert C. (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2024

Guía para planificar acciones contra el calor para los vecindarios de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix: crear soluciones al calor urbano en el Valle del Sol

Description

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017,…

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017, The Nature Conservancy, el Departamento de Salud Pública del condado de Maricopa, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, la Red de Investigación en Sostenibilidad sobre la Resiliencia Urbana a Eventos Extremos, el Centro de Investigación del Clima Urbano de Arizona State University y el Center for Whole Communities lanzaron un proceso participativo de planificación de acciones contra el calor para identificar tanto estrategias de mitigación como de adaptación a fin de reducir directamente el calor y mejorar la capacidad de los residentes para lidiar con el calor. Las organizaciones comunitarias con relaciones existentes en tres vecindarios seleccionados para la planificación de acciones contra el calor se unieron más tarde al equipo del proyecto: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa y Puente Movement. Más allá de construir un plan de acción comunitario contra el calor y completar proyectos de demostración, este proceso participativo fue diseñado para desarrollar conciencia, iniciativa y cohesión social en las comunidades subrepresentadas. Asimismo el proceso de planificación de acciones contra el calor fue diseñado para servir como modelo para esfuerzos futuros de resiliencia al calor y crear una visión local, contextual y culturalmente apropiada de un futuro más seguro y saludable. El método iterativo de planificación y participación utilizado por el equipo del proyecto fortaleció las relaciones dentro y entre los vecindarios, las organizaciones comunitarias, los responsables de la toma de decisiones y el equipo núcleo, y combinó la sabiduría de la narración de historias y la evidencia científica para comprender mejor los desafíos actuales y futuros que enfrentan los residentes durante eventos de calor extremo. Como resultado de tres talleres en cada comunidad, los residentes presentaron ideas que quieren ver implementadas para aumentar su comodidad y seguridad térmica durante los días de calor extremo.

Como se muestra a continuación, las ideas de los residentes se interceptaron en torno a conceptos similares, pero las soluciones específicas variaron entre los vecindarios. Por ejemplo, a todos los vecindarios les gustaría agregar sombra a sus corredores peatonales, pero variaron las preferencias para la ubicación de las mejoras para dar sombra. Algunos vecindarios priorizaron las rutas de transporte público, otros priorizaron las rutas utilizadas por los niños en su camino a la escuela y otros quieren paradas de descanso con sombra en lugares clave. Surgieron cuatro temas estratégicos generales en los tres vecindarios: promover y educar; mejorar la comodidad/capacidad de afrontamiento; mejorar la seguridad; fortalecer la capacidad. Estos temas señalan que existen serios desafíos de seguridad contra el calor en la vida diaria de los residentes y que la comunidad, los negocios y los sectores responsables de la toma de decisión deben abordar esos desafíos.

Los elementos del plan de acción contra el calor están diseñados para incorporarse a otros esfuerzos para aliviar el calor, crear ciudades resilientes al clima y brindar salud y seguridad pública. Los socios de implementación del plan de acción contra el calor provienen de la región de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, y se brindan recomendaciones para apoyar la transformación a una ciudad más fresca.

Para ampliar la escala de este enfoque, los miembros del equipo del proyecto recomiendan a) compromiso continuo e inversiones en estos vecindarios para implementar el cambio señalado como vital por los residentes, b) repetir el proceso de planificación de acción contra el calor con líderes comunitarios en otros vecindarios, y c) trabajar con las ciudades, los planificadores urbanos y otras partes interesadas para institucionalizar este proceso, apoyando las políticas y el uso de las métricas propuestas para crear comunidades más frescas.

ContributorsMesserschmidt, Maggie (Contributor) / Guardaro, Melissa (Contributor) / White, Jessica R. (Contributor) / Berisha, Vjollca (Contributor) / Hondula, David M. (Contributor) / Feagan, Mathieu (Contributor) / Grimm, Nancy (Contributor) / Beule, Stacie (Contributor) / Perea, Masavi (Contributor) / Ramirez, Maricruz (Contributor) / Olivas, Eva (Contributor) / Bueno, Jessica (Contributor) / Crummey, David (Contributor) / Winkle, Ryan (Contributor) / Rothballer, Kristin (Contributor) / Mocine-McQueen, Julian (Contributor) / Maurer, Maria (Artist) / Coseo, Paul (Artist) / Crank, Peter J (Designer) / Broadbent, Ashley (Designer) / McCauley, Lisa (Designer) / Nature's Cooling Systems Project (Contributor) / Nature Conservancy (U.S.) (Contributor) / Phoenix Revitalization Corporation (Contributor) / Puente Movement (Contributor) / Maricopa County (Ariz.). Department of Public Health (Contributor) / Central Arizona Conservation Alliance (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Urban Climate Research Center (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network (Contributor) / Center for Whole Communities (Contributor) / RAILmesa (Contributor) / Vitalyst Health Foundation (Funder)

Created2022

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