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Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
“Tell It to the Frogs: Fukushima’s nuclear disaster and its impact on the Japanese Tree Frog” is a representation of the work from Giraudeau et. al’s “Carotenoid distribution in wild Japanese tree frogs (Hyla japonica) exposed to ionizing radiation in Fukushima.” This paper looked to see if carotenoid levels in the tree frog’s vocal sac, liver, and blood were affected by radiation from Fukushima’s power plant explosion. Without carotenoids, the pigment that gives the frogs their orange color on their necks, their courtship practices would be impacted and would not be as able to show off their fitness to potential mates. The artwork inspired by this research displayed the tree frog’s degradation over time due to radiation, starting with normal life and ending with their death and open on the table. The sculptures also pinpoint where the carotenoids were being measured with a brilliant orange glaze. Through ceramic hand building, the artist created larger than life frogs in hopes to elicit curiosity about them and their plight. While the paper did not conclude any changes in the frog’s physiology after 18 months of exposure, there are still questions that are left unanswered. Why did these frogs not have any reaction? Could there be any effects after more time has passed? Is radiation leakage as big of a problem as previously thought? The only way to get the answers to these questions is to be aware of these amphibians, the circumstances that led them to be involved, and continued research on them and radiation.
ContributorsWesterfield, Savannah (Author) / Beiner, Susan (Thesis director) / McGraw, Kevin (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Art (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Among the most ornate animal traits in nature are the angle-dependent (i.e. iridescent) structural colors of many birds, beetles, and butterflies. Though we now have a solid understanding of the mechanisms, function, and evolution of these features in several groups, less attention has been paid to the potential for angle-dependent reflectance in otherwise matte-appearing (i.e. not thought to be structurally colored) tissues. Here for the first time we describe non-iridescent angle-dependent coloration from the tail and wing feathers of several parrot species (Psittaciformes). We employed a novel approach \u2014 by calculating chromatic and achromatic contrasts (in just noticeable differences, JNDs) of straight and angled measurements of the same feather patch \u2014 to test for perceptually relevant angle-dependent changes in coloration on dorsal and ventral feather surfaces. We found, among the 15 parrot species studied, significant angle dependence for nearly all parameters (except chromatic JNDs on the ventral side of wing feathers). We then measured microstructural features on each side of feathers, including size and color of barbs and barbules, to attempt to predict interspecific variation in degree of angle-dependent reflectance. We found that hue, saturation, and brightness of feather barbs, barbule saturation, and barb:barbule coverage ratio were the strongest predictors of angle-dependent coloration. Interestingly, there was significant phylogenetic signal in only one of the seven angle-dependence models tested. These findings deepen our views on the importance of microscopic feather features in the production of directional animal coloration, especially in tissues that appear to be statically colored.
ContributorsReed, Steven Andrew (Co-author) / McGraw, Kevin (Thesis director) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / Simpson, Richard (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Historically, studies of condition-dependent signals in animals have been male-centric, but recent work suggests that female ornaments can also communicate individual quality (e.g., disease state, fecundity). There has been a surge of interest in how urbanization alters signaling traits, but we know little about if and how cities affect signal expression in female animals. We measured carotenoid-based plumage coloration and coccidian (Isospora spp) parasite burden in desert and city populations of house finches to examine urban impacts on male and female health and attractiveness. In earlier work, we showed that male house finches are less colorful and more parasitized in the city, and we again detected that pattern in this study for males. However, though city females are also less colorful than their rural counterparts, we found that rural females were more parasitized. Also, regardless of sex and unlike rural birds, more colorful birds in the city were more heavily infected with coccidia. These results show that urban environments can disrupt signal honesty in female animals and highlight the need for more studies on how cities affect disease and condition-dependent traits in both male and female animals.
ContributorsSykes, Brooke Emma (Author) / McGraw, Kevin (Thesis director) / Sweazea, Karen (Committee member) / Hutton, Pierce (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
There are two electrophysiological states of sleep in birds (rapid-eye-movement sleep [REM] and slow-wave sleep [SWS]), which have different functions and costs. REM improves memory consolidation, while SWS is neuro-restorative but also exposes the animal to more risk during this deep-sleep phase. Birds who sleep in more exposed microsites are known to invest proportionally less in SWS (presumably to ensure proper vigilance), but otherwise little else is known about the ecological or behavioral predictors of how much time birds devote to REM v. SWS sleep. In this comparative analysis, we examine how proportional time spent in SWS v. REM is related to brain mass and duration of the incubation period in adults. Brain mass and incubation period were chosen as predictors of sleep state investment because brain mass is positively correlated with body size (and may show a relationship between physical development and sleep) and incubation period can be a link used to show similarities and differences between birds and mammals (using mammalian gestation period). We hypothesized that (1) species with larger brains (relative to body size and also while controlling for phylogeny) would have higher demands for information processing, and possibly proportionally outweigh neuro-repair, and thus devote more time to REM and that (2) species with longer incubation periods would have proportionally more REM due to the extended time required for overnight predator vigilance (and not falling into deep sleep) while on the nest. We found, using neurophysiological data from literature on 27 bird species, that adults from species with longer incubation periods spent proportionally more time in REM sleep, but that relative brain size was not significantly associated with relative time spent in REM or SWS. We therefore provide evidence that mammalian and avian REM in response to incubation/gestation period have convergently evolved. Our results suggest that overnight environmental conditions (e.g. sleep site exposure) might have a greater effect on sleep parameters than gross morphological attributes.
ContributorsRaiffe, Joshua Sapell (Author) / McGraw, Kevin (Thesis director) / Deviche, Pierre (Committee member) / Hutton, Pierce (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Humans have greatly altered the night-time photic environment via the production of artificial light at night (ALAN; e.g. street lights, car traffic, billboards, lit buildings). ALAN is problematic because it may significantly alter the seasonal/daily physiological rhythms or behaviors of animals. There has been considerable interest in the impacts of ALAN on health in humans and lab animals, but most such work has centered on adults and we know comparatively little about effects on young animals. We exposed 3-week-old king quail (Excalfactoria chinensis) to a constant overnight blue-light regime for 6 weeks and assessed weekly bactericidal activity of plasma against Escherichia coli - a commonly employed metric of innate immunity in animals. We found that chronic ALAN exposure significantly increased immune function, and that this elevation in immune performance manifested at different developmental time points in males and females. These results counter the pervasive notion that overnight light exposure is universally physiologically harmful to diurnal organisms and indicate that ALAN can provide sex-specific, short-term immunological boosts to developing animals.
ContributorsSaini, Chandan (Author) / McGraw, Kevin (Thesis director) / Hutton, Pierce (Committee member) / Sweazea, Karen (Committee member) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
This research focuses on the intricate dynamical systems of eusocial insects, particularly ants, and honey bees, known for their highly organized colonies and cooperative behaviors. Research on eusocial insects contributes to understanding of animal and social behavior and promises to help agriculture and have huge economic impacts. Collaborating closely with ecologists, I construct diverse mathematical models tailored to different environmental contexts. These models encompass individual stochastic (Agent-based model), Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE), non-autonomous, and Delay Differential Equation (DDE) models, rigorously validated with experimental data and statistical methods. Employing dynamical theory, bifurcation analysis, and numerical simulations, I gain deeper insights into the adaptive behaviors exhibited by these insects at both colony and individual levels. Our investigation addresses pivotal questions: 1) What mechanisms underlie spatial heterogeneity within social insect colonies, influencing the spread of information and pathogens through their intricate social networks?2) How can I develop accurate mathematical models incorporating age structures, particularly for species like honeybees, utilizing delayed differential equations?
3) What is the influence of seasonality on honeybee population dynamics in the presence of parasites, as explored through non-autonomous equations?
4) How do pesticides impact honeybee population dynamics, considering delayed equations and seasonality? Key findings highlight:1) The spatial distribution within colonies significantly shapes contact dynamics, thereby influencing the dissemination of information and the allocation of tasks.
2) Accurate modeling of honeybee populations necessitates the incorporation of age structure, as well as careful consideration of seasonal variations.
3) Seasonal fluctuations in egg-laying rates exert varying effects on the survival of honeybee colonies.
4) Pesticides wield a substantial influence on adult bee mortality rates and the consumption ratios of pollen. This research not only unveils the intricate interplay between intrinsic and environmental factors affecting social insects but also provides broader insights into social behavior and the potential ramifications of climate change.
ContributorsChen, Jun (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria (Committee member) / Fewell, Jeniffer (Committee member) / Harrison, Jon (Committee member) / Towers, Sherry (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The fast pace of global urbanization makes cities the hotspots of population density and anthropogenic activities, leading to intensive emissions of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2), a primary greenhouse gas. Urban climate scientists have been actively seeking effective mitigation strategies over the past decades, aiming to improve the environmental quality for urban dwellers. Prior studies have identified the role of urban green spaces in the relief of urban heat stress. Yet little effort was devoted to quantify their contribution to local and regional CO2 budget. In fact, urban biogenic CO2 fluxes from photosynthesis and respiration are influenced by the microclimate in the built environment and are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. The high complexity of the urban ecosystem leads to an outstanding challenge for numerical urban models to disentangling and quantifying the interplay between heat and carbon dynamics.This dissertation aims to advance the simulation of thermal and carbon dynamics in urban land surface models, and to investigate the role of urban greening practices and urban system design in mitigating heat and CO2 emissions. The biogenic CO2 exchange in cities is parameterized by incorporating plant physiological functions into an advanced single-layer urban canopy model in the built environment. The simulation result replicates the microclimate and CO2 flux patterns measured from an eddy covariance system over a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the model decomposes the total CO2 flux from observation and identifies the significant CO2 efflux from soil respiration. The model is then applied to quantify the impact of urban greening practices on heat and biogenic CO2 exchange over designed scenarios. The result shows the use of urban greenery is effective in mitigating both urban heat and carbon emissions, providing environmental co-benefit in cities. Furthermore, to seek the optimal urban system design in terms of thermal comfort and CO2 reduction, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is applied to the machine learning surrogates of the physical urban land surface model. There are manifest trade-offs among ameliorating diverse urban environmental indicators despite the co-benefit from urban greening. The findings of this dissertation, along with its implications on urban planning and landscaping management, would promote sustainable urban development strategies for achieving optimal environmental quality for policy makers, urban residents, and practitioners.
ContributorsLi, Peiyuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Concerns, such as global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, and changes in hydrological regimes, have been raised in response to the global ecosystem changes caused by humans. Understanding the ecosystem functions is crucial for assisting stakeholders in formulating viable plans to address the issues for a healthier planet. However, a systematic evaluation of recent environmental changes and current ecosystem status, focusing on terrestrial ecosystem carbon-water trade-off, in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is lacking. This dissertation involves: (1) examining the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem conditions in response to gains and losses of the forest; (2) evaluating the current consumptive water use variation across all biome and land use types with remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) products; (3) analyzing the trade-off between terrestrial carbon and water stress condition during the photosynthesis process in response to different climatic/ecosystem conditions, and (4) developing a spatial optimization model to effectively determine possible reforestation/afforestation options considering the balance between water conservation and carbon fluxes. These studies were conducted with many recently developed algorithms and satellite imagery. This dissertation makes significant contributions and expands the knowledge of the variation in water consumption and carbon assimilation within the ecosystem when different conditions are present. In addition, the spatial optimization model was applied to the entire region to formulate possible reforestation plans under different water-carbon tradeoff scenarios for the first time. The findings and results of this research can be used to provide constructive suggestions to policymakers, managers, planners, government officials, and any other stakeholders in LMB to formulate policies and guidelines for the environmentally responsible and sustainable development of LMB.
ContributorsLi, Yubin (Author) / Myint, Soe (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Daoqin (Thesis advisor) / Muenich, Rebecca (Committee member) / Schaffer-Smith, Danica (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023