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Description
Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.
ContributorsPerrings, Charles (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Daszak, Peter (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P. (Author) / Finnoff, David (Author) / Horan, Richard D. (Author) / Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Author) / Kinzig, Ann (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Author) / Levin, Simon (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Smith, Katherine F. (Author) / Springborn, Michael (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-12-01
Description
Preserving a system’s viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter- or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt effectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer–resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer–resource type system of a population of individuals classified by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are affected by particularly devastating overly adapted populations, namely cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.
ContributorsKareva, Irina (Author) / Morin, Benjamin (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2015-02-01
Description
Background
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.
Methodology
We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Afzal, Shehzad (Author) / Bernal, Gilbert (Author) / Bliss, Nadya (Author) / Brown, Shala (Author) / Espinoza, Baltazar (Author) / Jackson, Jasmine (Author) / Judson-Garcia, Julia (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Lin, Michael (Author) / Mamada, Robert (Author) / Moreno, Victor (Author) / Nazari, Fereshteh (Author) / Okuneye, Kamaldeen (Author) / Ross, Mary (Author) / Rodriguez, Claudia (Author) / Medlock, Jan (Author) / Ebert, David (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College (Contributor) / Educational Leadership and Innovation (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Global Security Initiative (Contributor)
Created2015-06-11
Description
Background
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.
Conclusions
Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.
ContributorsNishiura, Hiroshi (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2011-03-24
Description
Background
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Methods
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
Conclusions
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
ContributorsTowers, Sherry (Author) / Gomez-Lievano, Andres (Author) / Khan, Maryam (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Author) / Simon M. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-07-02
Description
Honeybees are important pollinators worldwide and pollinate about one-third of the food we consume. Recently though, honeybee colonies have been under increasing stress due to changing environments, pesticides, mites, and viruses, which has increased the incidence of
colony collapse. This paper aims to understand how these different factors contribute to the decline of honeybee populations by using two separate approaches: data analysis and mathematical modeling. The data analysis examines the relative impacts of mites, pollen, mites, and viruses on honeybee populations and colony collapse. From the data, low initial bee populations lead to collapse in September while mites and viruses can lead to collapse in December. Feeding bee colonies also has a mixed effect, where it increases both bee and mite populations. For the model, we focus on the population dynamics of the honeybee-mite interaction. Using a system of delay differential equations with five population components, we find that bee colonies can collapse from mites, coexist with mites, and survive without them. As long as bees produce more pupa than the death rate of pupa and mites produce enough phoretic mites compared to their death rates, bees and mites can coexist. Thus, it is possible for honeybee colonies to withstand mites, but if the parasitism is too large, the colony will collapse. Provided
this equilibrium exists, the addition of mites leads to the colony moving to the interior equilibrium. Additionally, population oscillations are persistent if they occur and are connected to the interior equilibrium. Certain parameter values destabilize bee populations, leading to large
oscillations and even collapse. From these parameters, we can develop approaches that can help us prevent honeybee colony collapse before it occurs.
colony collapse. This paper aims to understand how these different factors contribute to the decline of honeybee populations by using two separate approaches: data analysis and mathematical modeling. The data analysis examines the relative impacts of mites, pollen, mites, and viruses on honeybee populations and colony collapse. From the data, low initial bee populations lead to collapse in September while mites and viruses can lead to collapse in December. Feeding bee colonies also has a mixed effect, where it increases both bee and mite populations. For the model, we focus on the population dynamics of the honeybee-mite interaction. Using a system of delay differential equations with five population components, we find that bee colonies can collapse from mites, coexist with mites, and survive without them. As long as bees produce more pupa than the death rate of pupa and mites produce enough phoretic mites compared to their death rates, bees and mites can coexist. Thus, it is possible for honeybee colonies to withstand mites, but if the parasitism is too large, the colony will collapse. Provided
this equilibrium exists, the addition of mites leads to the colony moving to the interior equilibrium. Additionally, population oscillations are persistent if they occur and are connected to the interior equilibrium. Certain parameter values destabilize bee populations, leading to large
oscillations and even collapse. From these parameters, we can develop approaches that can help us prevent honeybee colony collapse before it occurs.
ContributorsSweeney, Brian Felix (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis director) / Mubayi, Anuj (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Ecological modeling can be used to analyze health risk behaviors and their relationship to ecological factors, which is useful in determining how social environmental factors influence an individual’s decisions. Environmental interactions shape the way that humans behave throughout the day, either through observation, action, or consequences. Specifically, health risk behaviors can be analyzed in relation to ecological factors. Alcohol drinking among college students has been a long concern and there are many risks associated with these behaviors in this population. Consistent engagement in health risk behaviors as a college student, such as drinking and smoking, can pose a much larger issues later in life and can lead to many different health problems. A research study was conducted in the form of a 27 question survey to determine and evaluate the impact of ecological factors on drinking and smoking behaviors among Arizona State University students. Ecological factors such as demographics, living conditions, contexts of social interactions, and places where students spend most of their time were used to evaluate the relationship between drinking and smoking behaviors and the ecological factors, both on- and off- campus.
ContributorsAndrade, Amber Marie (Co-author) / Naik, Sparshee (Co-author) / Werbick, Meghan (Co-author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Thesis director) / Gaughan, Monica (Committee member) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
This study evaluates medical pluralism among 1.5 generation Indian American immigrants. 1.5 generation Indian Americans (N=16) were surveyed regarding their engagement in complementary and alternative medical systems (CAM), how immigration affected that, and reasons for and for not continuing the use of CAM. Results indicated most 1.5 Indian immigrants currently engage in CAM, given that their parents also engage in CAM. The top reasons respondents indicated continued engagement in CAM was that it has no side effects and is preventative. Reasons for not practicing CAM included feeling out of place, not living with parents or not believing in CAM. After immigration, most participants decreased or stopped their engagement in CAM. More women than men continued to practice CAM after immigration. From the results, it was concluded that CAM is still important to 1.5 generation Indian immigrants.
ContributorsMurugesh, Subhiksha (Author) / Stotts, Rhian (Thesis director) / Mubayi, Anuj (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Substance abuse has become a major problem in the USA in the past decade, with immense public health and societal consequences. Methamphetamine (meth) use has grown due to an increased number of meth production and distribution markets. Border states such as Arizona and California are especially concerned with Mexico’s production and distribution of meth to their residents. A mathematical model for meth use and markets was developed and then analyzed to track multiple types of drug markets and drug-related arrests for possession or distribution. The importance of social influences as a major causal factor in the onset of illicit drug use is explicitly incorporated. The model parameters are then estimated using meth-related data from California and Arizona. A parameter sensitivity analysis on the model output was carried out. The results suggest that law enforcement policy aimed at marketers will be significantly more effective than targeting current users. Moreover, local unorganized markets have a greater role in maintaining the endemic level of meth users. Whereas, global organized markets play a role in initiating meth use outbreaks. Some implications for interventions and health promotion for the two states are also discussed.
ContributorsChavez, Brianna (Author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Thesis director) / Shafer, Michael (Committee member) / Amol Thakur, Mugdha (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems & Operations Engineering Prgm (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Ecological modeling can be used to analyze health risk behaviors and their relationship to ecological factors, which is useful in determining how social environmental factors influence an individual’s decisions. Environmental interactions shape the way that humans behave throughout the day, either through observation, action, or consequences. Specifically, health risk behaviors can be analyzed in relation to ecological factors. Alcohol drinking among college students has been a long concern and there are many risks associated with these behaviors in this population. Consistent engagement in health risk behaviors as a college student, such as drinking and smoking, can pose a much larger issues later in life and can lead to many different health problems. A research study was conducted in the form of a 27 question survey to determine and evaluate the impact of ecological factors on drinking and smoking behaviors among Arizona State University students. Ecological factors such as demographics, living conditions, contexts of social interactions, and places where students spend most of their time were used to evaluate the relationship between drinking and smoking behaviors and the ecological factors, both on- and off- campus. The sample size of this study is 541 students. Statistical tests were conducted using Excel and RStudio to find relationships between patterns of health risk behaviors and various ecological factors. The data from the survey was analyzed to address three main questions. The first question analyzed drinking behaviors in relation to demographics, specifically gender and race. The second question assessed drinking behaviors with participation in Greek life and clubs on campus. The third question evaluated the relationship between health risk behaviors and students’ living conditions, such as living on or off campus. The results show that while gender does not have a statistically significant influence on drinking behaviors, race does. White individuals are more likely to engage in drinking behaviors and are more at risk than non-whites. Participation in Greek life was shown to be statistically significant in determining health risk behaviors, while involvement in clubs was not. Finally, on campus students are less likely to engage in health risk behaviors than off-campus students.
ContributorsWerbick, Meghan Lindsay (Co-author) / Andrade, Amber (Co-author) / Naik, Sparshee (Co-author) / Mubayi, Anuj (Thesis director) / Gaughan, Monica (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor, Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor, Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05