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Diseases have been part of human life for generations and evolve within the population, sometimes dying out while other times becoming endemic or the cause of recurrent outbreaks. The long term influence of a disease stems from different dynamics within or between pathogen-host, that have been analyzed and studied by many researchers using mathematical models. Co-infection with different pathogens is common, yet little is known about how infection with one pathogen affects the host's immunological response to another. Moreover, no work has been found in the literature that considers the variability of the host immune health or that examines a disease at the population level and its corresponding interconnectedness with the host immune system. Knowing that the spread of the disease in the population starts at the individual level, this thesis explores how variability in immune system response within an endemic environment affects an individual's vulnerability, and how prone it is to co-infections. Immunology-based models of Malaria and Tuberculosis (TB) are constructed by extending and modifying existing mathematical models in the literature. The two are then combined to give a single nine-variable model of co-infection with Malaria and TB. Because these models are difficult to gain any insight analytically due to the large number of parameters, a phenomenological model of co-infection is proposed with subsystems corresponding to the individual immunology-based model of a single infection. Within this phenomenological model, the variability of the host immune health is also incorporated through three different pathogen response curves using nonlinear bounded Michaelis-Menten functions that describe the level or state of immune system (healthy, moderate and severely compromised). The immunology-based models of Malaria and TB give numerical results that agree with the biological observations. The Malaria--TB co-infection model gives reasonable results and these suggest that the order in which the two diseases are introduced have an impact on the behavior of both. The subsystems of the phenomenological models that correspond to a single infection (either of Malaria or TB) mimic much of the observed behavior of the immunology-based counterpart and can demonstrate different behavior depending on the chosen pathogen response curve. In addition, varying some of the parameters and initial conditions in the phenomenological model yields a range of topologically different mathematical behaviors, which suggests that this behavior may be able to be observed in the immunology-based models as well. The phenomenological models clearly replicate the qualitative behavior of primary and secondary infection as well as co-infection. The mathematical solutions of the models correspond to the fundamental states described by immunologists: virgin state, immune state and tolerance state. The phenomenological model of co-infection also demonstrates a range of parameter values and initial conditions in which the introduction of a second disease causes both diseases to grow without bound even though those same parameters and initial conditions did not yield unbounded growth in the corresponding subsystems. This results applies to all three states of the host immune system. In terms of the immunology-based system, this would suggest the following: there may be parameter values and initial conditions in which a person can clear Malaria or TB (separately) from their system but in which the presence of both can result in the person dying of one of the diseases. Finally, this thesis studies links between epidemiology (population level) and immunology in an effort to assess the impact of pathogen's spread within the population on the immune response of individuals. Models of Malaria and TB are proposed that incorporate the immune system of the host into a mathematical model of an epidemic at the population level.
ContributorsSoho, Edmé L (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Solution methods for certain linear and nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this dissertation. Emphasis is placed mainly on the analytical treatment of nonautonomous differential equations, which are challenging to solve despite the existent numerical and symbolic computational software programs available. Ideas from the transformation theory are adopted allowing one to solve the problems under consideration from a non-traditional perspective. First, the Cauchy initial value problem is considered for a class of nonautonomous and inhomogeneous linear diffusion-type equation on the entire real line. Explicit transformations are used to reduce the equations under study to their corresponding standard forms emphasizing on natural relations with certain Riccati(and/or Ermakov)-type systems. These relations give solvability results for the Cauchy problem of the parabolic equation considered. The superposition principle allows to solve formally this problem from an unconventional point of view. An eigenfunction expansion approach is also considered for this general evolution equation. Examples considered to corroborate the efficacy of the proposed solution methods include the Fokker-Planck equation, the Black-Scholes model and the one-factor Gaussian Hull-White model. The results obtained in the first part are used to solve the Cauchy initial value problem for certain inhomogeneous Burgers-type equation. The connection between linear (the Diffusion-type) and nonlinear (Burgers-type) parabolic equations is stress in order to establish a strong commutative relation. Traveling wave solutions of a nonautonomous Burgers equation are also investigated. Finally, it is constructed explicitly the minimum-uncertainty squeezed states for quantum harmonic oscillators. They are derived by the action of corresponding maximal kinematical invariance group on the standard ground state solution. It is shown that the product of the variances attains the required minimum value only at the instances that one variance is a minimum and the other is a maximum, when the squeezing of one of the variances occurs. Such explicit construction is possible due to the relation between the diffusion-type equation studied in the first part and the time-dependent Schrodinger equation. A modication of the radiation field operators for squeezed photons in a perfect cavity is also suggested with the help of a nonstandard solution of Heisenberg's equation of motion.
ContributorsVega-Guzmán, José Manuel, 1982- (Author) / Sulov, Sergei K (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Public risk communication (i.e. public emergency warning) is an integral component of public emergency management. Its effectiveness is largely based on the extent to which it elicits appropriate public response to minimize losses from an emergency. While extensive studies have been conducted to investigate individual responsive process to emergency risk information, the literature in emergency management has been largely silent on whether and how emergency impacts can be mitigated through the effective use of information transmission channels for public risk communication. This dissertation attempts to answer this question, in a specific research context of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. Methodologically, a prototype agent-based model is developed to examine the research question. Along with the specific disease spread dynamics, the model incorporates individual decision-making and response to emergency risk information. This simulation framework synthesizes knowledge from complexity theory, public emergency management, epidemiology, social network and social influence theory, and both quantitative and qualitative data found in previous studies. It allows testing how emergency risk information needs to be issued to the public to bring desirable social outcomes such as mitigated pandemic impacts. Simulation results generate several insightful propositions. First, in the research context, emergency managers can reduce the pandemic impacts by increasing the percent of state population who use national TV to receive pandemic information to 50%. Further increasing this percent after it reaches 50% brings only marginal effect in impact mitigation. Second, particular attention is needed when emergency managers attempt to increase the percent of state population who believe the importance of information from local TV or national TV, and the frequency in which national TV is used to send pandemic information. Those measures may reduce the pandemic impact in one dimension, while increase the impact in another. Third, no changes need to be made on the percent of state population who use local TV or radio to receive pandemic information, and the frequency in which either channel is used for public risk communication. This dissertation sheds light on the understanding of underlying dynamics of human decision-making during an emergency. It also contributes to the discussion of developing a better understanding of information exchange and communication dynamics during a public emergency and of improving the effectiveness of public emergency management practices in a dynamic environment.
ContributorsZhong, Wei (Author) / Lan, Zhiyong (Thesis advisor) / Kim, Yushim (Committee member) / Corley, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Lant, Timothy (Committee member) / Jehn, Megan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The purpose of this study is to first investigate the role of political socialization on young men and women and what motivates them to become politically active and make the ultimate decision to run for elected office. These effects include parental attitudes, exposure to political shows and news sources, participation in voluntary organizations, and overall community involvement. After understanding these direct and indirect effects of political socialization, I can attempt to explain the causes for the gender gap in political ambition \u2014 meaning that significantly more men are running for elected office compared to women.
ContributorsOsgood, Shannon Marie (Author) / Woodall, Gina (Thesis director) / Herrera, Richard (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor) / School of Public Affairs (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The Undoing Project is an ongoing educational feminist YouTube channel that serves as an introduction to feminism and feminist theory. The objective for this project is to present feminist theory and feminist ideology in an accessible and entertaining way. Through this project I sought to accomplish three goals: to challenge the negative image of feminism, bridge the gap between the language of academia and the public, and to acknowledge and unlearn ingrained prejudices. The videos focus on theory, history, legislation, current events, and pop culture. The initial project consists of ten videos addressing the feminist wave models, a brief history of the feminist movement, and discussions of concepts like hegemony, intersectionality, masculinity, femininity, and race.
ContributorsBuchholtz, Kaylee Marie (Author) / Brian, Jennifer (Thesis director) / Grzanka, Patrick (Committee member) / Brouwer, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor) / School of Social Transformation (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Previous research has found improvements in motor and cognitive measures following Assisted Cycle Therapy (AC) in adolescence with Down syndrome (DS). Our study investigated whether we would find improvements in older adults with DS on measures of leisure physical activity (GLTEQ) and sleep, which are early indicators of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in persons with Down syndrome. This study consisted of eight participants with Down syndrome between 31 and 51 years old that cycled for 30 minutes 3 x/week for eight weeks either at their voluntary cycling rate (VC) or approximately 35% faster with the help of a mechanical motor (AC). We predicted that, based on pilot data (Gomez, 2015), GLTEQ would either maintain or improve after AC, but would decrease after VC and would stay the same after NC. We predicted that the sleep score may improve after both VC or AC or it may improve more after VC than AC based on pilot data related to leisure activity. Our results were consistent with our prediction that GLTEQ will either maintain or improve after AC but will decrease after VC. Our results were not consistent with our prediction that sleep may improve after both VC or AC or it may improve more after VC than AC, possibly because we did not pre-screen for sleep disorders. Future research should focus on recruiting more participants and using both objective and subjective measures of sleep and physical activity to improve the efficacy of the study.
ContributorsParker, Lucas Maury (Author) / Ringenbach, Shannon (Thesis director) / Buman, Matthew (Committee member) / Holzapfel, Simon (Committee member) / School of Social and Behavioral Sciences (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This project will demonstrate that international aid organizations' relief efforts after the cholera epidemic in Haiti are misguided, and the publications the organizations release are somewhat deceptive to the public. The Haitian ministry of health underreported cholera incidence, international organizations use the January earthquake as a scapegoat, and Haitian contempt for UN involvement is disregarded. By looking at various narratives from Haitians present during the epidemic, one can contrast the perceptions of the epidemic from the local perspective and the outsider perspective. A content analysis will identify the popular themes of the juxtaposing view points and illustrate how priorities are misaligned. Dedoose 4.5.91 is the computer software tool used to analyze qualitative data.
ContributorsHotchkiss, Kinzi (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Committee member) / Maupin, Jonathan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The transition from high school to college is, for many, a drastic change in lifestyle, social networks, and dietary choices. The prevalence of obesity in college students has been steadily increasing. Freshmen weight gains have been associated with a decrease in fruits and vegetables and an increase in unhealthy items such as desserts, alcohol, and late night snacking after dinner. A survey of college students was constructed to gauge students' perceptions of nutrition how these perceptions influenced dietary practices and behaviors. Survey results indicated that awareness of nutrition and health does not translate to dietary practices, aligning with results from previous studies. Several sex differences were noted in regards to dietary choices and perceptions, knowledge seeking behavior, and sources of information. While there were some similarities, it is clear from the results obtained that men and women have different approaches and thoughts with regard to nutrition. The results showed that college students who actively seek our nutritional information are more likely to do so in the form of social media or Internet sources. This study could be useful for those planning on conducting college-based nutritional programs in that the results indicate patterns and trends that should be taken into consideration in order for a successful nutrition intervention
ContributorsKeahon, Gabriela Estrada (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Williams, Deborah (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School for the Science of Health Care Delivery (Contributor)
Created2015-05