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At the end of the dark ages, anatomy was taught as though everything that could be known was known. Scholars learned about what had been discovered rather than how to make discoveries. This was true even though the body (and the rest of biology) was very poorly understood. The renaissance

At the end of the dark ages, anatomy was taught as though everything that could be known was known. Scholars learned about what had been discovered rather than how to make discoveries. This was true even though the body (and the rest of biology) was very poorly understood. The renaissance eventually brought a revolution in how scholars (and graduate students) were trained and worked. This revolution never occurred in K-12 or university education such that we now teach young students in much the way that scholars were taught in the dark ages, we teach them what is already known rather than the process of knowing. Citizen science offers a way to change K-12 and university education and, in doing so, complete the renaissance. Here we offer an example of such an approach and call for change in the way students are taught science, change that is more possible than it has ever been and is, nonetheless, five hundred years delayed.

Created2016-03-01
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Social roles are thought to play an important role in determining the capacity for collective action in a community regarding the use of shared resources. Here we report on the results of a study using a behavioral experimental approach regarding the relationship between social roles and the performance of social-ecological

Social roles are thought to play an important role in determining the capacity for collective action in a community regarding the use of shared resources. Here we report on the results of a study using a behavioral experimental approach regarding the relationship between social roles and the performance of social-ecological systems. The computer-based irrigation experiment that was the basis of this study mimics the decisions faced by farmers in small-scale irrigation systems. In each of 20 rounds, which are analogous to growing seasons, participants face a two-stage commons dilemma. First they must decide how much to invest in the public infrastructure, e.g., canals and water diversion structures. Second, they must decide how much to extract from the water made available by that public infrastructure. Each round begins with a 60-second communication period before the players make their investment and extraction decisions. By analyzing the chat messages exchanged among participants during the communication stage of the experiment, we coded up to three roles per participant using the scheme of seven roles known to be important in the literature: leader, knowledge generator, connector, follower, moralist, enforcer, and observer. Our study supports the importance of certain social roles (e.g., connector) previously highlighted by several case study analyses. However, using qualitative comparative analysis we found that none of the individual roles was sufficient for groups to succeed, i.e., to reach a certain level of group production. Instead, we found that a combination of at least five roles was necessary for success. In addition, in the context of upstream-downstream asymmetry, we observed a pattern in which social roles assumed by participants tended to differ by their positions. Although our work generated some interesting insights, further research is needed to determine how robust our findings are to different action situations, such as biophysical context, social network, and resource uncertainty.

ContributorsPerez, Irene (Author) / Yu, David (Author) / Janssen, Marco (Author) / Anderies, John (Author) / ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems (Contributor)
Created2015
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Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and

Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr-1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub>a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr-1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr-1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2°C-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14  ×  103 and 75 ± 14  ×  103km2yr-1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

ContributorsPeng, S. (Author) / Ciais, P. (Author) / Krinner, G. (Author) / Wang, T. (Author) / Gouttevin, I. (Author) / McGuire, A. D. (Author) / Lawrence, D. (Author) / Burke, E. (Author) / Chen, X. (Author) / Decharme, B. (Author) / Koven, C. (Author) / MacDougall, A. (Author) / Rinke, A. (Author) / Saito, K. (Author) / Zhang, W. (Author) / Alkama, R. (Author) / Bohn, Theodore (Author) / Delire, C. (Author) / Hajima, T. (Author) / Ji, D. (Author) / Lettenmaier, D. P. (Author) / Miller, P. A. (Author) / Moore, J. C. (Author) / Smith, B. (Author) / Sueyoshi, T. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-01-20
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Description

Large-N comparative studies have helped common pool resource scholars gain general insights into the factors that influence collective action and governance outcomes. However, these studies are often limited by missing data, and suffer from the methodological limitation that important information is lost when we reduce textual information to quantitative data.

Large-N comparative studies have helped common pool resource scholars gain general insights into the factors that influence collective action and governance outcomes. However, these studies are often limited by missing data, and suffer from the methodological limitation that important information is lost when we reduce textual information to quantitative data. This study was motivated by nine case studies that appeared to be inconsistent with the expectation that the presence of Ostrom’s Design Principles increases the likelihood of successful common pool resource governance. These cases highlight the limitations of coding and analyzing Large-N case studies.

We examine two issues: 1) the challenge of missing data and 2) potential approaches that rely on context (which is often lost in the coding process) to address inconsistencies between empirical observations theoretical predictions. For the latter, we conduct a post-hoc qualitative analysis of a large-N comparative study to explore 2 types of inconsistencies: 1) cases where evidence for nearly all design principles was found, but available evidence led to the assessment that the CPR system was unsuccessful and 2) cases where the CPR system was deemed successful despite finding limited or no evidence for design principles. We describe inherent challenges to large-N comparative analysis to coding complex and dynamically changing common pool resource systems for the presence or absence of design principles and the determination of “success”. Finally, we illustrate how, in some cases, our qualitative analysis revealed that the identity of absent design principles explained inconsistencies hence de-facto reconciling such apparent inconsistencies with theoretical predictions. This analysis demonstrates the value of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, and using mixed-methods approaches iteratively to build comprehensive methodological and theoretical approaches to understanding common pool resource governance in a dynamically changing context.

ContributorsBarnett, Allain (Author) / Baggio, Jacopo (Author) / Shin, Hoon Cheol (Author) / Yu, David (Author) / Perez Ibarra, Irene (Author) / Rubinos, Cathy (Author) / Brady, Ute (Author) / Ratajczyk, Elicia (Author) / Rollins, Nathan (Author) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Author) / Anderies, John (Author) / Janssen, Marco (Author) / ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems (Contributor)
Created2016-09-09
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Research on collective action and common-pool resources is extensive. However, little work has concentrated on the effect of variability in resource availability and collective action, especially in the context of asymmetric access to resources. Earlier works have demonstrated that environmental variability often leads to a reduction of collective action in

Research on collective action and common-pool resources is extensive. However, little work has concentrated on the effect of variability in resource availability and collective action, especially in the context of asymmetric access to resources. Earlier works have demonstrated that environmental variability often leads to a reduction of collective action in the governance of shared resources. Here we assess how environmental variability may impact collective action. We performed a behavioral experiment involving an irrigation dilemma. In this dilemma participants invested first into a public fund that generated water resources for the group, which were subsequently appropriated by one participant at a time from head end to tail end. The amount of resource generated for the given investment level was determined by a payoff table and a stochastic event representing environmental variability, i.e., rainfall. Results show that that (1) upstream users’ behavior is by far the most important variable in determining the outcome of collective action; (2) environmental variability (i.e. risk level in investing in the resource) has little effect on individual investment and extraction levels; and (3) the action-reaction feedback is fundamental in determining the success or failure of communities.

ContributorsBaggio, Jacopo (Author) / Rollins, Nathan (Author) / Perez, Irene (Author) / Janssen, Marco (Author) / ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems (Contributor)
Created2015
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A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20  cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models,

A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20  cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °C-1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million  km2). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

ContributorsWang, Wenli (Author) / Rinke, Annette (Author) / Moore, John C. (Author) / Ji, Duoying (Author) / Cui, Xuefeng (Author) / Peng, Shushi (Author) / Lawrence, David M. (Author) / McGuire, A. David (Author) / Burke, Eleanor J. (Author) / Chen, Xiaodong (Author) / Decharme, Bertrand (Author) / Koven, Charles (Author) / MacDougall, Andrew (Author) / Saito, Kazuyuki (Author) / Zhang, Wenxin (Author) / Alkama, Ramdane (Author) / Bohn, Theodore (Author) / Ciais, Philippe (Author) / Delire, Christine (Author) / Gouttevin, Isabelle (Author) / Hajima, Tomohiro (Author) / Krinner, Gerhard (Author) / Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Author) / Miller, Paul A. (Author) / Smith, Benjamin (Author) / Sueyoshi, Tetsuo (Author) / Sherstiukov, Artem B. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2016-08-11
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In July 2012, the Indonesian Minister of Communication and Information, Tifatul Sembiring, declared that the government had shut down one million websites in view of the Islamic holy month of Ramadhan. This was in addition to another one million sites the ministry claimed to have blocked back in February 2012.

In July 2012, the Indonesian Minister of Communication and Information, Tifatul Sembiring, declared that the government had shut down one million websites in view of the Islamic holy month of Ramadhan. This was in addition to another one million sites the ministry claimed to have blocked back in February 2012. Minister Sembiring, a politician from the Islamic-based Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Prosperous Justice Party, PKS), said that his staff would continue blocking access to online pornography beyond the holy month.

Created2013
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The similarity attraction hypothesis posits that humans are drawn toward others who behave and appear similar to themselves. Two experiments examined this hypothesis with middle-school students learning electrical circuit analysis in a computer-based environment with an Animated Pedagogical Agent (APA). Experiment 1 was designed to determine whether matching the gender

The similarity attraction hypothesis posits that humans are drawn toward others who behave and appear similar to themselves. Two experiments examined this hypothesis with middle-school students learning electrical circuit analysis in a computer-based environment with an Animated Pedagogical Agent (APA). Experiment 1 was designed to determine whether matching the gender of the APA to the student has a positive impact on learning outcomes or student perceptions. One hundred ninety-seven middle-school students learned with the computer-based environment using an APA that matched their gender or one which was opposite in gender. Female students reported higher program ratings when the APA matched their gender. Male students, on the other hand, reported higher program ratings than females when the APA did not match their gender. Experiment 2 systematically tested the impact of providing learners the choice among four APAs on learning outcomes and student perceptions. Three hundred thirty-four middle-school students received either a pre-assigned random APA or were free to choose from four APA options: young male agent, older male agent, young female agent, or older female agent. Learners had higher far transfer scores when provided a choice of animated agent, but student perceptions were not impacted by having the ability to make this choice. We suggest that offering students learner control positively impacts student motivation and learning by increasing student perceptions of autonomy, responsibility for the success of the instructional materials, and global satisfaction with the design of materials.

ContributorsOzogul, Gamze (Author) / Johnson, Amy (Author) / Atkinson, Robert (Author) / Reisslein, Martin (Author) / ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems (Contributor)
Created2013-09-12
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As part of a larger trend across industrialized nations, European research policy discourse has placed increasing emphasis on socio-technical integration: the explicit incorporation of activities devoted to broader social aspects into scientific activities. In order to compare these high-level integration discourses against patterns at the level of resource allocation, we

As part of a larger trend across industrialized nations, European research policy discourse has placed increasing emphasis on socio-technical integration: the explicit incorporation of activities devoted to broader social aspects into scientific activities. In order to compare these high-level integration discourses against patterns at the level of resource allocation, we analyze nearly 2500 research solicitations from the three European Framework Programmes for R&D during the period 1998-2010. We identify four distinct types of integration (socio-ethical, stakeholder, socio-economic and industrial) that occur either as core or parallel components of R&D solicitations. Quantitative analysis reveals an overall trend towards increasing integration, with requests integrating industrial and socio-economic aspects substantially outnumbering those integrating socio-ethical and stakeholder aspects-by a 2 to 1 margin. Meanwhile, calls for socio-technical integration have become slightly more extensive (ranging across a broader range of research areas addressed), significantly more pervasive (shifting from the periphery to the core of R&D practices), and arguably less diverse (involving a wider variety of integration types) over time. The relative lack of attention to socio-ethical aspects and stakeholder participation in European research is particularly notable given that we focus on potentially controversial areas (life sciences, energy, and nanotechnology), which likely overemphasizes the prevalence of integration throughout the Framework Programmes.

Created2013-08-15
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Open-ended evolution (OEE) is relevant to a variety of biological, artificial and technological systems, but has been challenging to reproduce in silico. Most theoretical efforts focus on key aspects of open-ended evolution as it appears in biology. We recast the problem as a more general one in dynamical systems theory,

Open-ended evolution (OEE) is relevant to a variety of biological, artificial and technological systems, but has been challenging to reproduce in silico. Most theoretical efforts focus on key aspects of open-ended evolution as it appears in biology. We recast the problem as a more general one in dynamical systems theory, providing simple criteria for open-ended evolution based on two hallmark features: unbounded evolution and innovation. We define unbounded evolution as patterns that are non-repeating within the expected Poincare recurrence time of an isolated system, and innovation as trajectories not observed in isolated systems. As a case study, we implement novel variants of cellular automata (CA) where the update rules are allowed to vary with time in three alternative ways. Each is capable of generating conditions for open-ended evolution, but vary in their ability to do so. We find that state-dependent dynamics, regarded as a hallmark of life, statistically out-performs other candidate mechanisms, and is the only mechanism to produce open-ended evolution in a scalable manner, essential to the notion of ongoing evolution. This analysis suggests a new framework for unifying mechanisms for generating OEE with features distinctive to life and its artifacts, with broad applicability to biological and artificial systems.
Created2017-04-20