Matching Items (26)
Filtering by
- Genre: Masters Thesis
Description
This thesis develops a low-investment marketing strategy that allows low-to-mid level farmers extend their commercialization reach by strategically sending containers of fresh produce items to secondary markets that present temporary arbitrage opportunities. The methodology aims at identifying time windows of opportunity in which the price differential between two markets create an arbitrage opportunity for a transaction; a transaction involves buying a fresh produce item at a base market, and then shipping and selling it at secondary market price. A decision-making tool is developed that gauges the individual arbitrage opportunities and determines the specific price differential (or threshold level) that is most beneficial to the farmer under particular market conditions. For this purpose, two approaches are developed; a pragmatic approach that uses historic price information of the products in order to find the optimal price differential that maximizes earnings, and a theoretical one, which optimizes an expected profit model of the shipments to identify this optimal threshold. This thesis also develops risk management strategies that further reduce profit variability during a particular two-market transaction. In this case, financial engineering concepts are used to determine a shipment configuration strategy that minimizes the overall variability of the profits. For this, a Markowitz model is developed to determine the weight assignation of each component for a particular shipment. Based on the results of the analysis, it is deemed possible to formulate a shipment policy that not only increases the farmer's commercialization reach, but also produces profitable operations. In general, the observed rates of return under a pragmatic and theoretical approach hovered between 0.072 and 0.616 within important two-market structures. Secondly, it is demonstrated that the level of return and risk can be manipulated by varying the strictness of the shipping policy to meet the overall objectives of the decision-maker. Finally, it was found that one can minimize the risk of a particular two-market transaction by strategically grouping the product shipments.
ContributorsFlores, Hector M (Author) / Villalobos, Rene (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Maltz, Arnold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor and seventh most common cancer in human. Every year there is a significant rise in the number of patients suffering from HCC. Most clinical research has focused on HCC early detection so that there are high chances of patient's survival. Emerging advancements in functional and structural imaging techniques have provided the ability to detect microscopic changes in tumor micro environment and micro structure. The prime focus of this thesis is to validate the applicability of advanced imaging modality, Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE), for HCC diagnosis. The research was carried out on three HCC patient's data and three sets of experiments were conducted. The main focus was on quantitative aspect of MRE in conjunction with Texture Analysis, an advanced imaging processing pipeline and multi-variate analysis machine learning method for accurate HCC diagnosis. We analyzed the techniques to handle unbalanced data and evaluate the efficacy of sampling techniques. Along with this we studied different machine learning algorithms and developed models using them. Performance metrics such as Prediction Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity have been used for evaluation for the final developed model. We were able to identify the significant features in the dataset and also the selected classifier was robust in predicting the response class variable with high accuracy.
ContributorsBansal, Gaurav (Author) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis advisor) / Mitchell, Ross (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, commercial buildings represent about 40% of the United State's energy consumption of which office buildings consume a major portion. Gauging the extent to which an individual building consumes energy in excess of its peers is the first step in initiating energy efficiency improvement. Energy Benchmarking offers initial building energy performance assessment without rigorous evaluation. Energy benchmarking tools based on the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) database are investigated in this thesis. This study proposes a new benchmarking methodology based on decision trees, where a relationship between the energy use intensities (EUI) and building parameters (continuous and categorical) is developed for different building types. This methodology was applied to medium office and school building types contained in the CBECS database. The Random Forest technique was used to find the most influential parameters that impact building energy use intensities. Subsequently, correlations which were significant were identified between EUIs and CBECS variables. Other than floor area, some of the important variables were number of workers, location, number of PCs and main cooling equipment. The coefficient of variation was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the new model. The customization technique proposed in this thesis was compared with another benchmarking model that is widely used by building owners and designers namely, the ENERGY STAR's Portfolio Manager. This tool relies on the standard Linear Regression methods which is only able to handle continuous variables. The model proposed uses data mining technique and was found to perform slightly better than the Portfolio Manager. The broader impacts of the new benchmarking methodology proposed is that it allows for identifying important categorical variables, and then incorporating them in a local, as against a global, model framework for EUI pertinent to the building type. The ability to identify and rank the important variables is of great importance in practical implementation of the benchmarking tools which rely on query-based building and HVAC variable filters specified by the user.
ContributorsKaskhedikar, Apoorva Prakash (Author) / Reddy, T. Agami (Thesis advisor) / Bryan, Harvey (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The ability to design high performance buildings has acquired great importance in recent years due to numerous federal, societal and environmental initiatives. However, this endeavor is much more demanding in terms of designer expertise and time. It requires a whole new level of synergy between automated performance prediction with the human capabilities to perceive, evaluate and ultimately select a suitable solution. While performance prediction can be highly automated through the use of computers, performance evaluation cannot, unless it is with respect to a single criterion. The need to address multi-criteria requirements makes it more valuable for a designer to know the "latitude" or "degrees of freedom" he has in changing certain design variables while achieving preset criteria such as energy performance, life cycle cost, environmental impacts etc. This requirement can be met by a decision support framework based on near-optimal "satisficing" as opposed to purely optimal decision making techniques. Currently, such a comprehensive design framework is lacking, which is the basis for undertaking this research. The primary objective of this research is to facilitate a complementary relationship between designers and computers for Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) during high performance building design. It is based on the application of Monte Carlo approaches to create a database of solutions using deterministic whole building energy simulations, along with data mining methods to rank variable importance and reduce the multi-dimensionality of the problem. A novel interactive visualization approach is then proposed which uses regression based models to create dynamic interplays of how varying these important variables affect the multiple criteria, while providing a visual range or band of variation of the different design parameters. The MCDM process has been incorporated into an alternative methodology for high performance building design referred to as Visual Analytics based Decision Support Methodology [VADSM]. VADSM is envisioned to be most useful during the conceptual and early design performance modeling stages by providing a set of potential solutions that can be analyzed further for final design selection. The proposed methodology can be used for new building design synthesis as well as evaluation of retrofits and operational deficiencies in existing buildings.
ContributorsDutta, Ranojoy (Author) / Reddy, T Agami (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Addison, Marlin S. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The poor energy efficiency of buildings is a major barrier to alleviating the energy dilemma. Historically, monthly utility billing data was widely available and analytical methods for identifying building energy efficiency improvements, performing building Monitoring and Verification (M&V;) and continuous commissioning (CCx) were based on them. Although robust, these methods were not sensitive enough to detect a number of common causes for increased energy use. In recent years, prevalence of short-term building energy consumption data, also known as Energy Interval Data (EID), made available through the Smart Meters, along with data mining techniques presents the potential of knowledge discovery inherent in this data. This allows more sophisticated analytical tools to be developed resulting in greater sensitivities due to higher prediction accuracies; leading to deep energy savings and highly efficient building system operations. The research explores enhancements to Inverse Statistical Modeling techniques due to the availability of EID. Inverse statistical modeling is the process of identification of prediction model structure and estimates of model parameters. The methodology is based on several common statistical and data mining techniques: cluster analysis for day typing, outlier detection and removal, and generation of building scheduling. Inverse methods are simpler to develop and require fewer inputs for model identification. They can model changes in energy consumption based on changes in climatic variables and up to a certain extent, occupancy. This makes them easy-to-use and appealing to building managers for evaluating any general retrofits, building condition monitoring, continuous commissioning and short-term load forecasting (STLF). After evaluating several model structures, an elegant model form was derived which can be used to model daily energy consumption; which can be extended to model energy consumption for any specific hour by adding corrective terms. Additionally, adding AR terms to this model makes it usable for STLF. Two different buildings, one synthetic (ASHRAE medium-office prototype) building and another, an actual office building, were modeled using these techniques. The methodologies proposed have several novel features compared to the manner in which these models have been described earlier. Finally, this thesis investigates characteristic fault signature identification from detailed simulation models and subsequent inverse analysis.
ContributorsJalori, Saurabh (Author) / Reddy, T. Agami (Thesis advisor) / Bryan, Harvey (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Creative design lies at the intersection of novelty and technical feasibility. These objectives can be achieved through cycles of divergence (idea generation) and convergence (idea evaluation) in conceptual design. The focus of this thesis is on the latter aspect. The evaluation may involve any aspect of technical feasibility and may be desired at component, sub-system or full system level. Two issues that are considered in this work are: 1. Information about design ideas is incomplete, informal and sketchy 2. Designers often work at multiple levels; different aspects or subsystems may be at different levels of abstraction Thus, high fidelity analysis and simulation tools are not appropriate for this purpose. This thesis looks at the requirements for a simulation tool and how it could facilitate concept evaluation. The specific tasks reported in this thesis are: 1. The typical types of information available after an ideation session 2. The typical types of technical evaluations done in early stages 3. How to conduct low fidelity design evaluation given a well-defined feasibility question A computational tool for supporting idea evaluation was designed and implemented. It was assumed that the results of the ideation session are represented as a morphological chart and each entry is expressed as some combination of a sketch, text and references to physical effects and machine components. Approximately 110 physical effects were identified and represented in terms of algebraic equations, physical variables and a textual description. A common ontology of physical variables was created so that physical effects could be networked together when variables are shared. This allows users to synthesize complex behaviors from simple ones, without assuming any solution sequence. A library of 16 machine elements was also created and users were given instructions about incorporating them. To support quick analysis, differential equations are transformed to algebraic equations by replacing differential terms with steady state differences), only steady state behavior is considered and interval arithmetic was used for modeling. The tool implementation is done by MATLAB; and a number of case studies are also done to show how the tool works. textual description. A common ontology of physical variables was created so that physical effects could be networked together when variables are shared. This allows users to synthesize complex behaviors from simple ones, without assuming any solution sequence. A library of 15 machine elements was also created and users were given instructions about incorporating them. To support quick analysis, differential equations are transformed to algebraic equations by replacing differential terms with steady state differences), only steady state behavior is considered and interval arithmetic was used for modeling. The tool implementation is done by MATLAB; and a number of case studies are also done to show how the tool works.
ContributorsKhorshidi, Maryam (Author) / Shah, Jami J. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Modern automotive and aerospace products are large cyber-physical system involving both software and hardware, composed of mechanical, electrical and electronic components. The increasing complexity of such systems is a major concern as it impacts development time and effort, as well as, initial and operational costs. Towards the goal of measuring complexity, the first step is to determine factors that contribute to it and metrics to qualify it. These complexity components can be further use to (a) estimate the cost of cyber-physical system, (b) develop methods that can reduce the cost of cyber-physical system and (c) make decision such as selecting one design from a set of possible solutions or variants. To determine the contributions to complexity we conducted survey at an aerospace company. We found out three types of contribution to the complexity of the system: Artifact complexity, Design process complexity and Manufacturing complexity. In all three domains, we found three types of metrics: size complexity, numeric complexity (degree of coupling) and technological complexity (solvability).We propose a formal representation for all three domains as graphs, but with different interpretations of entity (node) and relation (link) corresponding to the above three aspects. Complexities of these components are measured using algorithms defined in graph theory. Two experiments were conducted to check the meaningfulness and feasibility of the complexity metrics. First experiment was mechanical transmission and the scope of this experiment was component level. All the design stages, from concept to manufacturing, were considered in this experiment. The second experiment was conducted on hybrid powertrains. The scope of this experiment was assembly level and only artifact complexity is considered because of the limited resources. Finally the calibration of these complexity measures was conducted at an aerospace company but the results cannot be included in this thesis.
ContributorsGurpreet Singh (Author) / Shah, Jami (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Davidson, Joseph (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The COVID-19 outbreak that started in 2020, brought the world to its knees and is still a menace after three years. Over eighty-five million cases and over a million deaths have occurred due to COVID-19 during that time in the United States alone. A great deal of research has gone into making epidemic models to show the impact of the virus by plotting the cases, deaths, and hospitalization due to COVID-19. However, there is very less research that has anything to do with mapping different variants of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, constantly mutates and multiple variants have emerged over time. The major variants include Beta, Gamma, Delta and the recent one, Omicron. The purpose of the research done in this thesis is to modify one of the epidemic models i.e., the Spatially Informed Rapid Testing for Epidemic Model (SIRTEM), in such a way that various variants of the virus will be modelled at the same time. The model will be assessed by adding the Omicron and the Delta variants and in doing so, the effects of different variants can be studied by looking at the positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from both the variants for the Arizona Population. The focus will be to find the best infection rate and testing rate by using Random numbers so that the published positive cases and the positive cases derived from the model have the least mean square error.
ContributorsVarghese, Allen Moncey (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Candan, Kasim S (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Alzheimer's Related Dementias (ADRD) is projected to affect 50 million people globally in the coming decades. Clinical research suggests that Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), a precursor to dementia, offers a critical window for lifestyle interventions to delay or prevent the progression of AD/ADRD. Previous research indicates that lifestyle changes, including increased physical exercise, reduced caloric intake, and mentally stimulating exercises, can reduce the risk of MCI. Early detection of MCI is challenging due to subtle and often unnoticed cognitive decline, traditionally monitored through infrequent clinical tests. As part of this research, the Smart Driving System was proposed, a novel, unobtrusive, and economical technology to detect early stages of neurodegenerative diseases. This system, leveraging a multi-modal biosensing array (MMS) and AI algorithms, assesses daily driving behavior, offering insights into a driver's cognitive function. The ultimate goal is to develop the Smart Driving Device and App, integrating it into vehicles, and validating its effectiveness in detecting MCI through comprehensive pilot studies. The Smart Driving System represents a breakthrough in AD/ADRD management, promising significant improvements in early detection and offering a scalable, cost-effective solution for monitoring cognitive health in real-world settings.
ContributorsSerhan, Peter (Author) / Forzani, Erica (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Hihath, Joshua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024
Description
With trends of globalization on rise, predominant of the trades happen by sea, and experts have predicted an increase in trade volumes over the next few years. With increasing trade volumes, container ships’ upsizing is being carried out to meet the demand. But the problem with container ships’ upsizing is that the sea port terminals must be equipped adequately to improve the turnaround time otherwise the container ships’ upsizing would not yield the anticipated benefits. This thesis focus on a special type of a double automated crane set-up, with a finite interoperational buffer capacity. The buffer is placed in between the cranes, and the idea behind this research is to analyze the performance of the crane operations when this technology is adopted. This thesis proposes the approximation of this complex system, thereby addressing the computational time issue and allowing to efficiently analyze the performance of the system. The approach to model this system has been carried out in two phases. The first phase consists of the development of discrete event simulation model to make the system evolve over time. The challenges of this model are its high processing time which consists of performing large number of experimental runs, thus laying the foundation for the development of the analytical model of the system, and with respect to analytical modeling, a continuous time markov process approach has been adopted. Further, to improve the efficiency of the analytical model, a state aggregation approach is proposed. Thus, this thesis would give an insight on the outcomes of the two approaches and the behavior of the error space, and the performance of the models for the varying buffer capacities would reflect the scope of improvement in these kinds of operational set up.
ContributorsRengarajan, Sundaravaradhan (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Ju, Feng (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018