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- Genre: Masters Thesis
Description
The smart grid initiative is the impetus behind changes that are expected to culminate into an enhanced distribution system with the communication and control infrastructure to support advanced distribution system applications and resources such as distributed generation, energy storage systems, and price responsive loads. This research proposes a distribution-class analog of the transmission LMP (DLMP) as an enabler of the advanced applications of the enhanced distribution system. The DLMP is envisioned as a control signal that can incentivize distribution system resources to behave optimally in a manner that benefits economic efficiency and system reliability and that can optimally couple the transmission and the distribution systems. The DLMP is calculated from a two-stage optimization problem; a transmission system OPF and a distribution system OPF. An iterative framework that ensures accurate representation of the distribution system's price sensitive resources for the transmission system problem and vice versa is developed and its convergence problem is discussed. As part of the DLMP calculation framework, a DCOPF formulation that endogenously captures the effect of real power losses is discussed. The formulation uses piecewise linear functions to approximate losses. This thesis explores, with theoretical proofs, the breakdown of the loss approximation technique when non-positive DLMPs/LMPs occur and discusses a mixed integer linear programming formulation that corrects the breakdown. The DLMP is numerically illustrated in traditional and enhanced distribution systems and its superiority to contemporary pricing mechanisms is demonstrated using price responsive loads. Results show that the impact of the inaccuracy of contemporary pricing schemes becomes significant as flexible resources increase. At high elasticity, aggregate load consumption deviated from the optimal consumption by up to about 45 percent when using a flat or time-of-use rate. Individual load consumption deviated by up to 25 percent when using a real-time price. The superiority of the DLMP is more pronounced when important distribution network conditions are not reflected by contemporary prices. The individual load consumption incentivized by the real-time price deviated by up to 90 percent from the optimal consumption in a congested distribution network. While the DLMP internalizes congestion management, the consumption incentivized by the real-time price caused overloads.
ContributorsAkinbode, Oluwaseyi Wemimo (Author) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald T (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
As global energy demand has dramatically increased and traditional fossil fuels will be depleted in the foreseeable future, clean and unlimited renewable energies are recognized as the future global energy challenge solution. Today, the power grid in U.S. is building more and more renewable energies like wind and solar, while the electric power system faces new challenges from rapid growing percentage of wind and solar. Unlike combustion generators, intermittency and uncertainty are the inherent features of wind and solar. These features bring a big challenge to the stability of modern electric power grid, especially for a small scale power grid with wind and solar. In order to deal with the intermittency and uncertainty of wind and solar, energy storage systems are considered as one solution to mitigate the fluctuation of wind and solar by smoothing their power outputs. For many different types of energy storage systems, this thesis studied the operation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in power systems and analyzed the benefits of the BESS. Unlike many researchers assuming fixed utilization patterns for BESS and calculating the benefits, this thesis found the BESS utilization patterns and benefits through an investment planning model. Furthermore, a cost is given for utilizing BESS and to find the best way of operating BESS rather than set an upper bound and a lower bound for BESS energy levels. Two planning models are proposed in this thesis and preliminary conclusions are derived from simulation results. This work is organized as below: chapter 1 briefly introduces the background of this research; chapter 2 gives an overview of previous related work in this area; the main work of this thesis is put in chapter 3 and chapter 4 contains the generic BESS model and the investment planning model; the following chapter 5 includes the simulation and results analysis of this research and chapter 6 provides the conclusions from chapter 5.
ContributorsDai, Daihong (Author) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This thesis presents a meta-analysis of lead-free solder reliability. The qualitative analyses of the failure modes of lead- free solder under different stress tests including drop test, bend test, thermal test and vibration test are discussed. The main cause of failure of lead- free solder is fatigue crack, and the speed of propagation of the initial crack could differ from different test conditions and different solder materials. A quantitative analysis about the fatigue behavior of SAC lead-free solder under thermal preconditioning process is conducted. This thesis presents a method of making prediction of failure life of solder alloy by building a Weibull regression model. The failure life of solder on circuit board is assumed Weibull distributed. Different materials and test conditions could affect the distribution by changing the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution. The method is to model the regression of parameters with different test conditions as predictors based on Bayesian inference concepts. In the process of building regression models, prior distributions are generated according to the previous studies, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used under WinBUGS environment.
ContributorsXu, Xinyue (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
No-confounding designs (NC) in 16 runs for 6, 7, and 8 factors are non-regular fractional factorial designs that have been suggested as attractive alternatives to the regular minimum aberration resolution IV designs because they do not completely confound any two-factor interactions with each other. These designs allow for potential estimation of main effects and a few two-factor interactions without the need for follow-up experimentation. Analysis methods for non-regular designs is an area of ongoing research, because standard variable selection techniques such as stepwise regression may not always be the best approach. The current work investigates the use of the Dantzig selector for analyzing no-confounding designs. Through a series of examples it shows that this technique is very effective for identifying the set of active factors in no-confounding designs when there are three of four active main effects and up to two active two-factor interactions.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
ContributorsKrishnamoorthy, Archana (Author) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Borror, Connie (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.
ContributorsZhou, Duan (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
For more than twenty years, clinical researchers have been publishing data regarding incidence and risk of adverse events (AEs) incurred during hospitalizations. Hospitals have standard operating policies and procedures (SOPP) to protect patients from AE. The AE specifics (rates, SOPP failures, timing and risk factors) during heart failure (HF) hospitalizations are unknown. There were 1,722 patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of HF from an academic hospital between January 2005 and December 2007. Three hundred eighty-one patients experienced 566 AEs, classified into four categories: medication (43.9%), infection (18.9%), patient care (26.3%), or procedural (10.9%). Three distinct analyses were performed: 1) patient's perspective of SOPP reliability including cumulative distribution and hazard functions of time to AEs; 2) Cox proportional hazards model to determine independent patient-specific risk factors for AEs; and 3) hospital administration's perspective of SOPP reliability through three years of the study including cumulative distribution and hazard functions of time between AEs and moving range statistical process control (SPC) charts for days between failures of each type. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to consider reliability of SOPP from both the patient's and hospital administration's perspective. AE rates in hospitalized patients are similar to other recently published reports and did not improve during the study period. Operations research methodologies will be necessary to improve reliability of care delivered to hospitalized patients.
ContributorsHuddleston, Jeanne (Author) / Fowler, John (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Thesis advisor) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Modern computer systems are complex engineered systems involving a large collection of individual parts, each with many parameters, or factors, affecting system performance. One way to understand these complex systems and their performance is through experimentation. However, most modern computer systems involve such a large number of factors that thorough experimentation on all of them is impossible. An initial screening step is thus necessary to determine which factors are relevant to the system's performance and which factors can be eliminated from experimentation.
Factors may impact system performance in different ways. A factor at a specific level may significantly affect performance as a main effect, or in combination with other main effects as an interaction. For screening, it is necessary both to identify the presence of these effects and to locate the factors responsible for them. A locating array is a relatively new experimental design that causes every main effect and interaction to occur and distinguishes all sets of d main effects and interactions from each other in the tests where they occur. This design is therefore helpful in screening complex systems.
The process of screening using locating arrays involves multiple steps. First, a locating array is constructed for all possibly significant factors. Next, the system is executed for all tests indicated by the locating array and a response is observed. Finally, the response is analyzed to identify the significant system factors for future experimentation. However, simply constructing a reasonably sized locating array for a large system is no easy task and analyzing the response of the tests presents additional difficulties due to the large number of possible predictors and the inherent imbalance in the experimental design itself. Further complications can arise from noise in the system or errors in testing.
This thesis has three contributions. First, it provides an algorithm to construct locating arrays using the Lovász Local Lemma with Moser-Tardos resampling. Second, it gives an algorithm to analyze the system response efficiently. Finally, it studies the robustness of the analysis to the heavy-hitters assumption underlying the approach as well as to varying amounts of system noise.
Factors may impact system performance in different ways. A factor at a specific level may significantly affect performance as a main effect, or in combination with other main effects as an interaction. For screening, it is necessary both to identify the presence of these effects and to locate the factors responsible for them. A locating array is a relatively new experimental design that causes every main effect and interaction to occur and distinguishes all sets of d main effects and interactions from each other in the tests where they occur. This design is therefore helpful in screening complex systems.
The process of screening using locating arrays involves multiple steps. First, a locating array is constructed for all possibly significant factors. Next, the system is executed for all tests indicated by the locating array and a response is observed. Finally, the response is analyzed to identify the significant system factors for future experimentation. However, simply constructing a reasonably sized locating array for a large system is no easy task and analyzing the response of the tests presents additional difficulties due to the large number of possible predictors and the inherent imbalance in the experimental design itself. Further complications can arise from noise in the system or errors in testing.
This thesis has three contributions. First, it provides an algorithm to construct locating arrays using the Lovász Local Lemma with Moser-Tardos resampling. Second, it gives an algorithm to analyze the system response efficiently. Finally, it studies the robustness of the analysis to the heavy-hitters assumption underlying the approach as well as to varying amounts of system noise.
ContributorsSeidel, Stephen (Author) / Syrotiuk, Violet R. (Thesis advisor) / Colbourn, Charles J (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In this thesis, a single-level, multi-item capacitated lot sizing problem with setup carryover, setup splitting and backlogging is investigated. This problem is typically used in the tactical and operational planning stage, determining the optimal production quantities and sequencing for all the products in the planning horizon. Although the capacitated lot sizing problems have been investigated with many different features from researchers, the simultaneous consideration of setup carryover and setup splitting is relatively new. This consideration is beneficial to reduce costs and produce feasible production schedule. Setup carryover allows the production setup to be continued between two adjacent periods without incurring extra setup costs and setup times. Setup splitting permits the setup to be partially finished in one period and continued in the next period, utilizing the capacity more efficiently and remove infeasibility of production schedule.
The main approaches are that first the simple plant location formulation is adopted to reformulate the original model. Furthermore, an extended formulation by redefining the idle period constraints is developed to make the formulation tighter. Then for the purpose of evaluating the solution quality from heuristic, three types of valid inequalities are added to the model. A fix-and-optimize heuristic with two-stage product decomposition and period decomposition strategies is proposed to solve the formulation. This generic heuristic solves a small portion of binary variables and all the continuous variables rapidly in each subproblem. In addition, the case with demand backlogging is also incorporated to demonstrate that making additional assumptions to the basic formulation does not require to completely altering the heuristic.
The contribution of this thesis includes several aspects: the computational results show the capability, flexibility and effectiveness of the approaches. The average optimality gap is 6% for data without backlogging and 8% for data with backlogging, respectively. In addition, when backlogging is not allowed, the performance of fix-and-optimize heuristic is stable regardless of period length. This gives advantage of using such approach to plan longer production schedule. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed solution approaches is analyzed so that later research on similar topics could compare the result with different solution strategies.
The main approaches are that first the simple plant location formulation is adopted to reformulate the original model. Furthermore, an extended formulation by redefining the idle period constraints is developed to make the formulation tighter. Then for the purpose of evaluating the solution quality from heuristic, three types of valid inequalities are added to the model. A fix-and-optimize heuristic with two-stage product decomposition and period decomposition strategies is proposed to solve the formulation. This generic heuristic solves a small portion of binary variables and all the continuous variables rapidly in each subproblem. In addition, the case with demand backlogging is also incorporated to demonstrate that making additional assumptions to the basic formulation does not require to completely altering the heuristic.
The contribution of this thesis includes several aspects: the computational results show the capability, flexibility and effectiveness of the approaches. The average optimality gap is 6% for data without backlogging and 8% for data with backlogging, respectively. In addition, when backlogging is not allowed, the performance of fix-and-optimize heuristic is stable regardless of period length. This gives advantage of using such approach to plan longer production schedule. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed solution approaches is analyzed so that later research on similar topics could compare the result with different solution strategies.
ContributorsChen, Cheng-Lung (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Mohan, Srimathy (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The Partition of Variance (POV) method is a simplistic way to identify large sources of variation in manufacturing systems. This method identifies the variance by estimating the variance of the means (between variance) and the means of the variance (within variance). The project shows that the method correctly identifies the variance source when compared to the ANOVA method. Although the variance estimators deteriorate when varying degrees of non-normality is introduced through simulation; however, the POV method is shown to be a more stable measure of variance in the aggregate. The POV method also provides non-negative, stable estimates for interaction when compared to the ANOVA method. The POV method is shown to be more stable, particularly in low sample size situations. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the POV is not a replacement for more complex analysis methods, but rather, a supplement to them. POV is ideal for preliminary analysis due to the ease of implementation, the simplicity of interpretation, and the lack of dependency on statistical analysis packages or statistical knowledge.
ContributorsLittle, David John (Author) / Borror, Connie (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Broatch, Jennifer (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015