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Description
Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area

Species distribution modeling is used to study changes in biodiversity and species range shifts, two currently well-known manifestations of climate change. The focus of this study is to explore how distributions of suitable habitat might shift under climate change for shrub communities within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SMMNRA), through a comparison of community level to individual species level distribution modeling. Species level modeling is more commonly utilized, in part because community level modeling requires detailed community composition data that are not always available. However, community level modeling may better detect patterns in biodiversity. To examine the projected impact on suitable habitat in the study area, I used the MaxEnt modeling algorithm to create and evaluate species distribution models with presence only data for two future climate models at community and individual species levels. I contrasted the outcomes as a method to describe uncertainty in projected models. To derive a range of sensitivity outcomes I extracted probability frequency distributions for suitable habitat from raster grids for communities modeled directly as species groups and contrasted those with communities assembled from intersected individual species models. The intersected species models were more sensitive to climate change relative to the grouped community models. Suitable habitat in SMMNRA's bounds was projected to decline from about 30-90% for the intersected models and about 20-80% for the grouped models from its current state. Models generally captured floristic distinction between community types as drought tolerance. Overall the impact on drought tolerant communities, growing in hotter, drier habitat such as Coastal Sage Scrub, was predicted to be less than on communities growing in cooler, moister more interior habitat, such as some chaparral types. Of the two future climate change models, the wetter model projected less impact for most communities. These results help define risk exposure for communities and species in this conservation area and could be used by managers to focus vegetation monitoring tasks to detect early response to climate change. Increasingly hot and dry conditions could motivate opportunistic restoration projects for Coastal Sage Scrub, a threatened vegetation type in Southern California.
ContributorsJames, Jennifer (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
The border policies of the United States and Mexico that have evolved over the previous decades have pushed illegal immigration and drug smuggling to remote and often public lands. Valuable natural resources and tourist sites suffer an inordinate level of environmental impacts as a result of activities, from new roads

The border policies of the United States and Mexico that have evolved over the previous decades have pushed illegal immigration and drug smuggling to remote and often public lands. Valuable natural resources and tourist sites suffer an inordinate level of environmental impacts as a result of activities, from new roads and trash to cut fence lines and abandoned vehicles. Public land managers struggle to characterize impacts and plan for effective landscape level rehabilitation projects that are the most cost effective and environmentally beneficial for a region given resource limitations. A decision support tool is developed to facilitate public land management: Borderlands Environmental Rehabilitation Spatial Decision Support System (BERSDSS). The utility of the system is demonstrated using a case study of the Sonoran Desert National Monument, Arizona.
ContributorsFisher, Sharisse (Author) / Murray, Alan T. (Thesis advisor) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
It has been identified in the literature that there exists a "spatial mismatch" between geographical concentrations of lower-income or minority people who have relatively lower rates of car ownership, lower skills or educational attainment and who mainly rely on public transit for their travel, and low-skilled jobs for which they

It has been identified in the literature that there exists a "spatial mismatch" between geographical concentrations of lower-income or minority people who have relatively lower rates of car ownership, lower skills or educational attainment and who mainly rely on public transit for their travel, and low-skilled jobs for which they more easily qualify. Given this situation, various types of transportation projects have been constructed to improve public transit services and, alongside other goals, improve the connection between low-skilled workers and jobs. As indicators of performance, measures of job accessibility are commonly used in to gauge how such improvements have facilitated job access. Following this approach, this study investigates the impact of the Phoenix Metro Light Rail on job accessibility for the transit users, by calculating job accessibility before and after the opening of the system. Moreover, it also investigates the demographic profile of those who have benefited from improvements in job accessibility----both by income and by ethnicity. Job accessibility is measured using the cumulative opportunity approach which quantifies the job accessibility within different travel time limits, such as 30 and 45 minutes. ArcGIS is used for data processing and results visualization. Results show that the Phoenix light rail has improved job accessibility of the traffic analysis zones that are along the light rail line and Hispanic and lower-income groups have benefited more than their counterparts.
ContributorsLiu, Liyuan (Author) / Golub, Aaron (Thesis advisor) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Kuby, Michael (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Measuring the success of a transportation project as it is envisioned in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and is detailed in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is not part of any current planning process, for a post construction analysis may have political consequences for the project participants, would incur additional

Measuring the success of a transportation project as it is envisioned in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and is detailed in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is not part of any current planning process, for a post construction analysis may have political consequences for the project participants, would incur additional costs, and may be difficult to define in terms of scope. With local, state and federal budgets shrinking, funding sources are demanding that the performance of a project be evaluated and project stakeholders be held accountable. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) developed a framework that allows transportation agencies to customize their reporting so that a project's performance can be measured. In the case of the Red Mountain Freeway, the selected performance measure allows for comparing the population forecasts, the traffic volumes, and the project costs defined in the final EIS to actual population growth, actual average annual daily traffic (ADT), and actual project costs obtained from census data, the City of Mesa, and contractor bids, respectively. The results show that population projections for both Maricopa County and the City of Mesa are within less than half a percent of the actual annual population growth. The traffic analysis proved more difficult due to inconsistencies within the EIS documents, variations in the local arterials used to produce traffic volume, and in the projection time-spans. The comparison for the total increase in traffic volume generated a difference of 11.34 percent and 89.30 percent. An adjusted traffic volume equal to all local arterials and US 60 resulted in a difference of 40 percent between the projected and actual ADT values. As for the project cost comparison, not only were the costs within the individual documents inconsistent, but they were underestimated by as much as 75 percent. Evaluating the goals as described in an EIS document using the performance measure guidelines provided by the TRB may provide the tool that can help promote conflict resolution for political issues that arise, streamline the planning process, and measure the performance of the transportation system, so that lessons learned can be applied to future projects.
ContributorsKizior, Angelika (Author) / Golub, Aaron (Thesis advisor) / Kuby, Michael (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description

Remote sensing has demonstrated to be an instrumental tool in monitoring land changes as a result of anthropogenic change or natural disasters. Most disaster studies have focused on large-scale events with few analyzing small-scale disasters such as tornadoes. These studies have only provided a damage assessment perspective with the continued

Remote sensing has demonstrated to be an instrumental tool in monitoring land changes as a result of anthropogenic change or natural disasters. Most disaster studies have focused on large-scale events with few analyzing small-scale disasters such as tornadoes. These studies have only provided a damage assessment perspective with the continued need to assess reconstruction. This study attempts to fill that void by examining recovery from the 1999 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado utilizing Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Recovery was assessed for 2000, 2001 and 2002 using spectral enhancements (vegetative and urban indices and a combination of the two), a recovery index and different statistical thresholds. Classification accuracy assessments were performed to determine the precision of recovery and select the best results. This analysis proved that medium resolution imagery could be used in conjunction with geospatial techniques to capture recovery. The new indices, Shortwave Infrared Index (SWIRI) and Coupled Vegetation and Urban Index (CVUI), developed for disaster management, were the most effective at discerning reconstruction using the 1.5 standard deviation threshold. Recovery rates for F-scale damages revealed that the most incredibly damaged areas associated with an F5 rating were the slowest to recover, while the lesser damaged areas associated with F1-F3 ratings were the quickest to rebuild. These findings were consistent for 2000, 2001 and 2002 also exposing that complete recovery was never attained in any of the F-scale damage zones by 2002. This study illustrates the significance the biophysical impact has on recovery as well as the effectiveness of using medium resolution imagery such as Landsat in future research.

ContributorsWagner, Melissa A (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W. (Thesis advisor) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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Description

Spatial uncertainty refers to unknown error and vagueness in geographic data. It is relevant to land change and urban growth modelers, soil and biome scientists, geological surveyors and others, who must assess thematic maps for similarity, or categorical agreement. In this paper I build upon prior map comparison research, testing

Spatial uncertainty refers to unknown error and vagueness in geographic data. It is relevant to land change and urban growth modelers, soil and biome scientists, geological surveyors and others, who must assess thematic maps for similarity, or categorical agreement. In this paper I build upon prior map comparison research, testing the effectiveness of similarity measures on misregistered data. Though several methods compare uncertain thematic maps, few methods have been tested on misregistration. My objective is to test five map comparison methods for sensitivity to misregistration, including sub-pixel errors in both position and rotation. Methods included four fuzzy categorical models: fuzzy kappa's model, fuzzy inference, cell aggregation, and the epsilon band. The fifth method used conventional crisp classification. I applied these methods to a case study map and simulated data in two sets: a test set with misregistration error, and a control set with equivalent uniform random error. For all five methods, I used raw accuracy or the kappa statistic to measure similarity. Rough-set epsilon bands report the most similarity increase in test maps relative to control data. Conversely, the fuzzy inference model reports a decrease in test map similarity.

ContributorsBrown, Scott (Author) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe W. (Committee member) / Anderson, Sharolyn (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
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Description
Food production and consumption directly impacts the environment and human health. Protein in particular has significant cultural and health implications, and how people make decisions about what type of protein they eat has not been studied directly. Many decision tools exist to offer recommendations for seafood, but neglect livestock or

Food production and consumption directly impacts the environment and human health. Protein in particular has significant cultural and health implications, and how people make decisions about what type of protein they eat has not been studied directly. Many decision tools exist to offer recommendations for seafood, but neglect livestock or plant protein. This study attempts to address these shortcomings in food decision science and tools by asking the questions: 1) What qualities of a dietary protein-based decision tool make it effective? 2) What do people consider when making decisions about what type of protein to consume? Using literature review, meta-analysis, and surveys, this study attempts to determine how the knowledge gained from answering these questions can be used to develop an electronic tool to engage consumers in making sustainable and healthy decisions about protein consumption. The data show that, given environmental and health information about the protein types, people in the sample of farmers market shoppers are more likely to purchase wild salmon and organically grown soybeans, and less likely to purchase grain-fed beef. However, the order of preference among the six types of protein did not change. Additional results suggest that there is a disconnect between consumers and sources of dietary protein, indicating a need for improved education. Inconsistency in labeling and information regarding protein types is a large source of confusion for consumers who participated in the survey, highlighting the need for transparency. Results of this study suggest that decisions tools may help improve decision making, but new ways of using them need to be considered to achieve this.
ContributorsGeren, Sarah (Author) / Gerber, Leah (Thesis advisor) / Minteer, Ben (Committee member) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arvai, Joseph (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015