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- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
Quantum resilience makes two very important claims. First, resilience cannot be characterized without recognizing both the system and the valued function it provides. Second, resilience is not about disturbances, insults, threats, or perturbations. To avoid crippling infinities, characterization of resilience must be accomplishable without disturbances in mind. In light of this, quantum resilience defines resilience as the extent to which a system delivers its valued functions, and characterizes resilience as a function of system productivity and complexity. System productivity vis-à-vis specified “valued functions” involves (1) the quanta of the valued function delivered, and (2) the number of systems (within the greater system) which deliver it. System complexity is defined structurally and relationally and is a function of a variety of items including (1) system-of-systems hierarchical decomposition, (2) interfaces and connections between systems, and (3) inter-system dependencies.
Among the important features of quantum resilience is that it can be implemented in any system engineering tool that provides sufficient design and specification rigor (i.e., one that supports standards like the Lifecycle and Systems Modeling languages and frameworks like the DoD Architecture Framework). Further, this can be accomplished with minimal software development and has been demonstrated in three model-based system engineering tools, two of which are commercially available, well-respected, and widely used. This pragmatic approach assures transparency and consistency in characterization of resilience in any discipline.
This research, sponsored by National Academy of Construction, the Construction Industry Institute and Arizona State University, used structured interviews, a Delphi study and focus groups to explore: 1) potential benefit and industry interest in an open repository of best practices and 2) important elements of a framework/model that guides the creation, management and sustainment of an open repository of best practices.
This dissertation presents findings specifically exploring the term "Practices for Excellence", its definition, elements that hinder implementation, the potential value of an open online repository for such practices and a model to develop an open repository.
Motivated by the need for cities to prepare and be resilient to unpredictable future weather conditions, this dissertation advances a novel infrastructure development theory of “safe-to-fail” to increase the adaptive capacity of cities to climate change. Current infrastructure development is primarily reliant on identifying probable risks to engineered systems and making infrastructure reliable to maintain its function up to a designed system capacity. However, alterations happening in the earth system (e.g., atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice) and in human systems (e.g., greenhouse gas emission, population, land-use, technology, and natural resource use) are increasing the uncertainties in weather predictions and risk calculations and making it difficult for engineered infrastructure to maintain intended design thresholds in non-stationary future. This dissertation presents a new way to develop safe-to-fail infrastructure that departs from the current practice of risk calculation and is able to manage failure consequences when unpredicted risks overwhelm engineered systems.
This dissertation 1) defines infrastructure failure, refines existing safe-to-fail theory, and compares decision considerations for safe-to-fail vs. fail-safe infrastructure development under non-stationary climate; 2) suggests an approach to integrate the estimation of infrastructure failure impacts with extreme weather risks; 3) provides a decision tool to implement resilience strategies into safe-to-fail infrastructure development; and, 4) recognizes diverse perspectives for adopting safe-to-fail theory into practice in various decision contexts.
Overall, this dissertation advances safe-to-fail theory to help guide climate adaptation decisions that consider infrastructure failure and their consequences. The results of this dissertation demonstrate an emerging need for stakeholders, including policy makers, planners, engineers, and community members, to understand an impending “infrastructure trolley problem”, where the adaptive capacity of some regions is improved at the expense of others. Safe-to-fail further engages stakeholders to bring their knowledge into the prioritization of various failure costs based on their institutional, regional, financial, and social capacity to withstand failures. This approach connects to sustainability, where city practitioners deliberately think of and include the future cost of social, environmental and economic attributes in planning and decision-making.
This study used urban form/socio-economic data combined with self-reported on-road FFCO2 emissions for a sample of global cities to estimate relationships within a multivariate regression framework based on an adjusted STIRPAT model. The on-road high-resolution (whole-city) regression FFCO2 model robustness was evaluated by introducing artificial error, conducting cross-validation, and assessing relationship sensitivity under various model specifications. Results indicated that fuel economy, vehicle ownership, road density and population density were statistically significant factors that correlate with on-road FFCO2 emissions. Of these four variables, fuel economy and vehicle ownership had the most robust relationships.
A second regression model was constructed to examine the relationship between global on-road FFCO2 emissions and urban form factors (described by population
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density, road density, and distance to activity centers) at sub-city spatial scales (1 km2). Results showed that: 1) Road density is the most significant (p<2.66e-037) predictor of on-road FFCO2 emissions at the 1 km2 spatial scale; 2) The correlation between population density and on-road FFCO2 emissions for interstates/freeways varies little by city type. For arterials, on-road FFCO2 emissions show a stronger relationship to population density in clustered cities (slope = 0.24) than dispersed cities (slope = 0.13). FFCO2 3) The distance to activity centers has a significant positive relationship with on-road FFCO2 emission for the interstate and freeway toad types, but an insignificant relationship with the arterial road type.
The availability of cooled space, whether public or private, has been shown to greatly reduce health risks associated with extreme heat. However, a lack of fine-scale knowledge of which households have access to this infrastructure results in an incomplete understanding of the health risks associated with heat. This knowledge gap could result in the misallocation of resources intended to mitigate negative health impacts associated with heat exposure. Additionally, when discussing accessibility to public cooled space there are underlying questions of mobility and mode choice. In addition to captive riders, a growing emphasis on walking, biking and public transit will likely expose additional choice riders to extreme temperatures and compound existing vulnerabilities to heat.
Lifecycle assessment (LCA), the preferred framework to identify and address environmental hotspots in PV manufacturing and recycling, doesn’t account for time-sensitive climate impact of PV manufacturing GHG emissions and underestimates the climate benefit of manufacturing improvements. Furthermore, LCA is inherently retrospective by relying on inventory data collected from commercial-scale processes that have matured over time and this approach cannot evaluate environmentally promising pilot-scale alternatives based on lab-scale data. Also, prospective-LCAs that rely on hotspot analysis to guide future environmental improvements, (1) don’t account for stake-holder inputs to guide environmental choices in a specific decision context, and (2) may fail in a comparative context where the mutual differences in the environmental impacts of the alternatives and not the environmental hotspots of a particular alternative determine the environmentally preferable alternative
This thesis addresses the aforementioned problematic aspects by (1)using the time-sensitive radiative-forcing metric to identify PV manufacturing improvements with the highest climate benefit, (2)identifying the environmental hotspots in the incumbent CdTe-PV recycling process, and (3)applying the anticipatory-LCA framework to identify the most environmentally favorable alternative to address the recycling hotspot and significant stakeholder inputs that can impact the choice of the preferred recycling alternative.
The results show that using low-carbon electricity is the most significant PV manufacturing improvement and is equivalent to increasing the mono-Si and multi-Si module efficiency from a baseline of 17% to 21.7% and 16% to 18.7%, respectively. The elimination of the ethylene-vinyl acetate encapsulant through mechanical and chemical processes is the most significant environmental hotspot for CdTe PV recycling. Thermal delamination is the most promising environmental alternative to address this hotspot. The most significant stake-holder input to influence the choice of the environmentally preferable recycling alternative is the weight assigned to the different environmental impact categories.