Matching Items (12)
Description
Speculation regarding interstate conflict is of great concern to many, if not, all people. As such, forecasting interstate conflict has been an interest to experts, scholars, government officials, and concerned citizens. Presently, there are two approaches to the problem of conflict forecasting with divergent results. The first tends to use a bird’s eye view with big data to forecast actions while missing the intimate details of the groups it is studying. The other opts for more grounded details of cultural meaning and interpretation, yet struggles in the realm of practical application for forecasting. While outlining issues with both approaches, an important question surfaced: are actions causing interpretations and/or are the interpretations driving actions? In response, the Theory of Narrative Conflict (TNC) is proposed to begin answering these questions. To properly address the complexity of forecasting and of culture, TNC draws from a number of different sources, including narrative theory, systems theory, nationalism, and the expression of these in strategic communication.
As a case study, this dissertation examines positions of both the U.S. and China in the South and East China Seas over five years. Methodologically, this dissertation demonstrates the benefit of content analysis to identify local narratives and both stabilizing and destabilizing events contained in thousands of news articles over a five-year period. Additionally, the use of time series and a Markov analysis both demonstrate usefulness in forecasting. Theoretically, TNC displays the usefulness of narrative theory to forecast both actions driven by narrative and common interpretations after events.
Practically, this dissertation demonstrates that current efforts in the U.S. and China have not resulted in an increased understanding of the other country. Neither media giant demonstrates the capacity to be critical of their own national identity and preferred interpretation of world affairs. In short, the battle for the hearts and minds of foreign persons should be challenged.
As a case study, this dissertation examines positions of both the U.S. and China in the South and East China Seas over five years. Methodologically, this dissertation demonstrates the benefit of content analysis to identify local narratives and both stabilizing and destabilizing events contained in thousands of news articles over a five-year period. Additionally, the use of time series and a Markov analysis both demonstrate usefulness in forecasting. Theoretically, TNC displays the usefulness of narrative theory to forecast both actions driven by narrative and common interpretations after events.
Practically, this dissertation demonstrates that current efforts in the U.S. and China have not resulted in an increased understanding of the other country. Neither media giant demonstrates the capacity to be critical of their own national identity and preferred interpretation of world affairs. In short, the battle for the hearts and minds of foreign persons should be challenged.
ContributorsNolen, Matthew Scott (Author) / Corman, Steven R. (Thesis advisor) / Adame, Bradley (Committee member) / Simon, Denis (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The power of science lies in its ability to infer and predict the
existence of objects from which no direct information can be obtained
experimentally or observationally. A well known example is to
ascertain the existence of black holes of various masses in different
parts of the universe from indirect evidence, such as X-ray emissions.
In the field of complex networks, the problem of detecting
hidden nodes can be stated, as follows. Consider a network whose
topology is completely unknown but whose nodes consist of two types:
one accessible and another inaccessible from the outside world. The
accessible nodes can be observed or monitored, and it is assumed that time
series are available from each node in this group. The inaccessible
nodes are shielded from the outside and they are essentially
``hidden.'' The question is, based solely on the
available time series from the accessible nodes, can the existence and
locations of the hidden nodes be inferred? A completely data-driven,
compressive-sensing based method is developed to address this issue by utilizing
complex weighted networks of nonlinear oscillators, evolutionary game
and geospatial networks.
Both microbes and multicellular organisms actively regulate their cell
fate determination to cope with changing environments or to ensure
proper development. Here, the synthetic biology approaches are used to
engineer bistable gene networks to demonstrate that stochastic and
permanent cell fate determination can be achieved through initializing
gene regulatory networks (GRNs) at the boundary between dynamic
attractors. This is experimentally realized by linking a synthetic GRN
to a natural output of galactose metabolism regulation in yeast.
Combining mathematical modeling and flow cytometry, the
engineered systems are shown to be bistable and that inherent gene expression
stochasticity does not induce spontaneous state transitioning at
steady state. By interfacing rationally designed synthetic
GRNs with background gene regulation mechanisms, this work
investigates intricate properties of networks that illuminate possible
regulatory mechanisms for cell differentiation and development that
can be initiated from points of instability.
existence of objects from which no direct information can be obtained
experimentally or observationally. A well known example is to
ascertain the existence of black holes of various masses in different
parts of the universe from indirect evidence, such as X-ray emissions.
In the field of complex networks, the problem of detecting
hidden nodes can be stated, as follows. Consider a network whose
topology is completely unknown but whose nodes consist of two types:
one accessible and another inaccessible from the outside world. The
accessible nodes can be observed or monitored, and it is assumed that time
series are available from each node in this group. The inaccessible
nodes are shielded from the outside and they are essentially
``hidden.'' The question is, based solely on the
available time series from the accessible nodes, can the existence and
locations of the hidden nodes be inferred? A completely data-driven,
compressive-sensing based method is developed to address this issue by utilizing
complex weighted networks of nonlinear oscillators, evolutionary game
and geospatial networks.
Both microbes and multicellular organisms actively regulate their cell
fate determination to cope with changing environments or to ensure
proper development. Here, the synthetic biology approaches are used to
engineer bistable gene networks to demonstrate that stochastic and
permanent cell fate determination can be achieved through initializing
gene regulatory networks (GRNs) at the boundary between dynamic
attractors. This is experimentally realized by linking a synthetic GRN
to a natural output of galactose metabolism regulation in yeast.
Combining mathematical modeling and flow cytometry, the
engineered systems are shown to be bistable and that inherent gene expression
stochasticity does not induce spontaneous state transitioning at
steady state. By interfacing rationally designed synthetic
GRNs with background gene regulation mechanisms, this work
investigates intricate properties of networks that illuminate possible
regulatory mechanisms for cell differentiation and development that
can be initiated from points of instability.
ContributorsSu, Ri-Qi (Author) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Xiao (Thesis advisor) / Bliss, Daniel (Committee member) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015