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- Creators: Arizona State University
- Status: Published
Description
Electric utilities are exploring new technologies to cope up with the in-crease in electricity demand and power transfer capabilities of transmission lines. Compact transmission lines and high phase order systems are few of the techniques which enhance the power transfer capability of transmission lines without requiring any additional right-of-way. This research work investigates the impact of compacting high voltage transmission lines and high phase order systems on the surface electric field of composite insulators, a key factor deciding service performance of insulators. The electric field analysis was done using COULOMB 9.0, a 3D software package which uses a numerical analysis technique based on Boundary Element Method (BEM). 3D models of various types of standard transmission towers used for 230 kV, 345 kV and 500 kV level were modeled with different insulators con-figurations and number of circuits. Standard tower configuration models were compacted by reducing the clearance from live parts in steps of 10%. It was found that the standard tower configuration can be compacted to 30% without violating the minimum safety clearance mandated by NESC standards. The study shows that surface electric field on insulators for few of the compact structures exceeded the maximum allowable limit even if corona rings were installed. As a part of this study, a Gaussian process model based optimization pro-gram was developed to find the optimum corona ring dimensions to limit the electric field within stipulated values. The optimization program provides the dimen-sions of corona ring, its placement from the high voltage end for a given dry arc length of insulator and system voltage. JMP, a statistical computer package and AMPL, a computer language widely used form optimization was used for optimi-zation program. The results obtained from optimization program validated the industrial standards.
ContributorsMohan, Nihal (Author) / Gorur, Ravi S. (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald T. (Committee member) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This thesis examines the application of statistical signal processing approaches to data arising from surveys intended to measure psychological and sociological phenomena underpinning human social dynamics. The use of signal processing methods for analysis of signals arising from measurement of social, biological, and other non-traditional phenomena has been an important and growing area of signal processing research over the past decade. Here, we explore the application of statistical modeling and signal processing concepts to data obtained from the Global Group Relations Project, specifically to understand and quantify the effects and interactions of social psychological factors related to intergroup conflicts. We use Bayesian networks to specify prospective models of conditional dependence. Bayesian networks are determined between social psychological factors and conflict variables, and modeled by directed acyclic graphs, while the significant interactions are modeled as conditional probabilities. Since the data are sparse and multi-dimensional, we regress Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) against the data to estimate the conditional probabilities of interest. The parameters of GMMs are estimated using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. However, the EM algorithm may suffer from over-fitting problem due to the high dimensionality and limited observations entailed in this data set. Therefore, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are used for GMM order estimation. To assist intuitive understanding of the interactions of social variables and the intergroup conflicts, we introduce a color-based visualization scheme. In this scheme, the intensities of colors are proportional to the conditional probabilities observed.
ContributorsLiu, Hui (Author) / Taylor, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Junshan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
As urban populations become increasingly dense, massive amounts of new 'big' data that characterize human activity are being made available and may be characterized as having a large volume of observations, being produced in real-time or near real-time, and including a diverse variety of information. In particular, spatial interaction (SI) data - a collection of human interactions across a set of origins and destination locations - present unique challenges for distilling big data into insight. Therefore, this dissertation identifies some of the potential and pitfalls associated with new sources of big SI data. It also evaluates methods for modeling SI to investigate the relationships that drive SI processes in order to focus on human behavior rather than data description.
A critical review of the existing SI modeling paradigms is first presented, which also highlights features of big data that are particular to SI data. Next, a simulation experiment is carried out to evaluate three different statistical modeling frameworks for SI data that are supported by different underlying conceptual frameworks. Then, two approaches are taken to identify the potential and pitfalls associated with two newer sources of data from New York City - bike-share cycling trips and taxi trips. The first approach builds a model of commuting behavior using a traditional census data set and then compares the results for the same model when it is applied to these newer data sources. The second approach examines how the increased temporal resolution of big SI data may be incorporated into SI models.
Several important results are obtained through this research. First, it is demonstrated that different SI models account for different types of spatial effects and that the Competing Destination framework seems to be the most robust for capturing spatial structure effects. Second, newer sources of big SI data are shown to be very useful for complimenting traditional sources of data, though they are not sufficient substitutions. Finally, it is demonstrated that the increased temporal resolution of new data sources may usher in a new era of SI modeling that allows us to better understand the dynamics of human behavior.
A critical review of the existing SI modeling paradigms is first presented, which also highlights features of big data that are particular to SI data. Next, a simulation experiment is carried out to evaluate three different statistical modeling frameworks for SI data that are supported by different underlying conceptual frameworks. Then, two approaches are taken to identify the potential and pitfalls associated with two newer sources of data from New York City - bike-share cycling trips and taxi trips. The first approach builds a model of commuting behavior using a traditional census data set and then compares the results for the same model when it is applied to these newer data sources. The second approach examines how the increased temporal resolution of big SI data may be incorporated into SI models.
Several important results are obtained through this research. First, it is demonstrated that different SI models account for different types of spatial effects and that the Competing Destination framework seems to be the most robust for capturing spatial structure effects. Second, newer sources of big SI data are shown to be very useful for complimenting traditional sources of data, though they are not sufficient substitutions. Finally, it is demonstrated that the increased temporal resolution of new data sources may usher in a new era of SI modeling that allows us to better understand the dynamics of human behavior.
ContributorsOshan, Taylor Matthew (Author) / Fotheringham, A. S. (Thesis advisor) / Farmer, Carson J.Q. (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio S.J. (Committee member) / Nelson, Trisalyn (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
In this work, I propose to bridge the gap between human users and adaptive control of robotic systems. The goal is to enable robots to consider user feedback and adjust their behaviors. A critical challenge with designing such systems is that users are often non-experts, with limited knowledge about the robot's hardware and dynamics. In the domain of human-robot interaction, there exist different modalities of conveying information regarding the desired behavior of the robot, most commonly used are demonstrations, and preferences. While it is challenging for non-experts to provide demonstrations of robot behavior, works that consider preferences expressed as trajectory rankings lead to users providing noisy and possibly conflicting information, leading to slow adaptation or system failures. The end user can be expected to be familiar with the dynamics and how they relate to their desired objectives through repeated interactions with the system. However, due to inadequate knowledge about the system dynamics, it is expected that the user would find it challenging to provide feedback on all dimension's of the system's behavior at all times. Thus, the key innovation of this work is to enable users to provide partial instead of completely specified preferences as with traditional methods that learn from user preferences. In particular, I consider partial preferences in the form of preferences over plant dynamic parameters, for which I propose Adaptive User Control (AUC) of robotic systems. I leverage the correlations between the observed and hidden parameter preferences to deal with incompleteness. I use a sparse Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model formulation to learn hidden variables that represent the relationships between the observed and hidden preferences over the system parameters. This model is trained using Stochastic Variational Inference with a distributed loss formulation. I evaluate AUC in a custom drone-swarm environment and several domains from DeepMind control suite. I compare AUC with the state-of-the-art preference-based reinforcement learning methods that are utilized with user preferences. Results show that AUC outperforms the baselines substantially in terms of sample and feedback complexity.
ContributorsBiswas, Upasana (Author) / Zhang, Yu (Thesis advisor) / Kambhampati, Subbarao (Committee member) / Berman, Spring (Committee member) / Liu, Lantao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Embedded within the regression framework, local models can estimate conditioned relationships between observed spatial phenomena and hypothesized explanatory variables and help infer the intangible spatial processes that contribute to the observed spatial patterns. Rather than investigating averaged characteristics corresponding to processes over space as global models do, these models estimate a surface of spatially varying parameters with a value for each location. Additionally, some models such as variants within the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) framework, also estimate a parameter to represent the spatial scale across which the processes vary representing the inherent heterogeneity of the estimated surfaces. Since different processes tend to operate at unique spatial scales, some extensions to local models such as Multiscale GWR (MGWR) estimate unique scales of association for each predictor in a model and generate significantly more information on the nature of geographic processes than their predecessors. However, developments within the realm of local models are fairly nascent and hence an understanding around their correct application as well as recognizing their true potential in exploring fundamental spatial science issues is under-developed. The techniques within these frameworks are also currently limited thus restricting the kinds of data that can be analyzed using these models. Therefore the goal of this dissertation is to advance techniques within local multiscale modeling specifically by coining new diagnostics, exploring their novel application in understanding long-standing issues concerning spatial scale and by expanding the tool base to allow their use in wider empirical applications. This goal is realized through three distinct research objectives over four chapters, followed by a discussion on the future of the developments within local multiscale modeling. A correct understanding of the capability and promise of local multiscale models and expanding the fields where they can be employed will not only enhance geographical research by strengthening the intuition of the nature of geographic processes, but will also exemplify the importance and need for using such tools bringing quantitative spatial science to the fore.
ContributorsSachdeva, Mehak (Author) / Fotheringham, A. Stewart (Thesis advisor) / Goodchild, Michael Frank (Committee member) / Kedron, Peter (Committee member) / Wolf, Levi John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Spatial regression is one of the central topics in spatial statistics. Based on the goals, interpretation or prediction, spatial regression models can be classified into two categories, linear mixed regression models and nonlinear regression models. This dissertation explored these models and their real world applications. New methods and models were proposed to overcome the challenges in practice. There are three major parts in the dissertation.
In the first part, nonlinear regression models were embedded into a multistage workflow to predict the spatial abundance of reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico. There were two challenges, zero-inflated data and out of sample prediction. The methods and models in the workflow could effectively handle the zero-inflated sampling data without strong assumptions. Three strategies were proposed to solve the out of sample prediction problem. The results and discussions showed that the nonlinear prediction had the advantages of high accuracy, low bias and well-performed in multi-resolution.
In the second part, a two-stage spatial regression model was proposed for analyzing soil carbon stock (SOC) data. In the first stage, there was a spatial linear mixed model that captured the linear and stationary effects. In the second stage, a generalized additive model was used to explain the nonlinear and nonstationary effects. The results illustrated that the two-stage model had good interpretability in understanding the effect of covariates, meanwhile, it kept high prediction accuracy which is competitive to the popular machine learning models, like, random forest, xgboost and support vector machine.
A new nonlinear regression model, Gaussian process BART (Bayesian additive regression tree), was proposed in the third part. Combining advantages in both BART and Gaussian process, the model could capture the nonlinear effects of both observed and latent covariates. To develop the model, first, the traditional BART was generalized to accommodate correlated errors. Then, the failure of likelihood based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in parameter estimating was discussed. Based on the idea of analysis of variation, back comparing and tuning range, were proposed to tackle this failure. Finally, effectiveness of the new model was examined by experiments on both simulation and real data.
In the first part, nonlinear regression models were embedded into a multistage workflow to predict the spatial abundance of reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico. There were two challenges, zero-inflated data and out of sample prediction. The methods and models in the workflow could effectively handle the zero-inflated sampling data without strong assumptions. Three strategies were proposed to solve the out of sample prediction problem. The results and discussions showed that the nonlinear prediction had the advantages of high accuracy, low bias and well-performed in multi-resolution.
In the second part, a two-stage spatial regression model was proposed for analyzing soil carbon stock (SOC) data. In the first stage, there was a spatial linear mixed model that captured the linear and stationary effects. In the second stage, a generalized additive model was used to explain the nonlinear and nonstationary effects. The results illustrated that the two-stage model had good interpretability in understanding the effect of covariates, meanwhile, it kept high prediction accuracy which is competitive to the popular machine learning models, like, random forest, xgboost and support vector machine.
A new nonlinear regression model, Gaussian process BART (Bayesian additive regression tree), was proposed in the third part. Combining advantages in both BART and Gaussian process, the model could capture the nonlinear effects of both observed and latent covariates. To develop the model, first, the traditional BART was generalized to accommodate correlated errors. Then, the failure of likelihood based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in parameter estimating was discussed. Based on the idea of analysis of variation, back comparing and tuning range, were proposed to tackle this failure. Finally, effectiveness of the new model was examined by experiments on both simulation and real data.
ContributorsLu, Xuetao (Author) / McCulloch, Robert (Thesis advisor) / Hahn, Paul (Committee member) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Saul, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) has been broadly used in various fields to
model spatially non-stationary relationships. Classic GWR is considered as a single-scale model that is based on one bandwidth parameter which controls the amount of distance-decay in weighting neighboring data around each location. The single bandwidth in GWR assumes that processes (relationships between the response variable and the predictor variables) all operate at the same scale. However, this posits a limitation in modeling potentially multi-scale processes which are more often seen in the real world. For example, the measured ambient temperature of a location is affected by the built environment, regional weather and global warming, all of which operate at different scales. A recent advancement to GWR termed Multiscale GWR (MGWR) removes the single bandwidth assumption and allows the bandwidths for each covariate to vary. This results in each parameter surface being allowed to have a different degree of spatial variation, reflecting variation across covariate-specific processes. In this way, MGWR has the capability to differentiate local, regional and global processes by using varying bandwidths for covariates. Additionally, bandwidths in MGWR become explicit indicators of the scale at various processes operate. The proposed dissertation covers three perspectives centering on MGWR: Computation; Inference; and Application. The first component focuses on addressing computational issues in MGWR to allow MGWR models to be calibrated more efficiently and to be applied on large datasets. The second component aims to statistically differentiate the spatial scales at which different processes operate by quantifying the uncertainty associated with each bandwidth obtained from MGWR. In the third component, an empirical study will be conducted to model the changing relationships between county-level socio-economic factors and voter preferences in the 2008-2016 United States presidential elections using MGWR.
model spatially non-stationary relationships. Classic GWR is considered as a single-scale model that is based on one bandwidth parameter which controls the amount of distance-decay in weighting neighboring data around each location. The single bandwidth in GWR assumes that processes (relationships between the response variable and the predictor variables) all operate at the same scale. However, this posits a limitation in modeling potentially multi-scale processes which are more often seen in the real world. For example, the measured ambient temperature of a location is affected by the built environment, regional weather and global warming, all of which operate at different scales. A recent advancement to GWR termed Multiscale GWR (MGWR) removes the single bandwidth assumption and allows the bandwidths for each covariate to vary. This results in each parameter surface being allowed to have a different degree of spatial variation, reflecting variation across covariate-specific processes. In this way, MGWR has the capability to differentiate local, regional and global processes by using varying bandwidths for covariates. Additionally, bandwidths in MGWR become explicit indicators of the scale at various processes operate. The proposed dissertation covers three perspectives centering on MGWR: Computation; Inference; and Application. The first component focuses on addressing computational issues in MGWR to allow MGWR models to be calibrated more efficiently and to be applied on large datasets. The second component aims to statistically differentiate the spatial scales at which different processes operate by quantifying the uncertainty associated with each bandwidth obtained from MGWR. In the third component, an empirical study will be conducted to model the changing relationships between county-level socio-economic factors and voter preferences in the 2008-2016 United States presidential elections using MGWR.
ContributorsLi, Ziqi (Author) / Fotheringham, A. Stewart (Thesis advisor) / Goodchild, Michael F. (Committee member) / Li, Wenwen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020